TURİZM, FİNANSAL GELİŞME, TİCARİ AÇIKLIK VE SERMAYE STOKUNUN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Turizmin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini belirlemek hem araştırmacılar hem de politika yapıcıları için önemli bir makroekonomik konudur. Bu çalışmanın ana amacı, Türkiye'de turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezini incelemektir. Çalışmada ülkeye gelen turist sayısı, finansal gelişme, ticari açıklık ve sermaye stokunun ekonomik büyümeye etkilerini değerlendirmek için 1965-2017 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler ve ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezinin Türkiye için hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca finansal gelişmede, ticari açıklıkta ve sermaye stokundaki artışlar uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi desteklemektedir. Bu nedenle sürdürülebilir bir ekonomik büyüme için turizmin ile birlikte diğer politika araçlarının da etkin bir şekilde kullanılması gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi
• Finansal Gelişme
• Ticari Açıklık
• ARDL Yaklaşımı

THE EFFECTS OF TOURISM, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND CAPITAL FORMATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE OF TURKEY

Öz

Determining the impact of tourism on economic growth is an important macroeconomic issue for both researchers and policy makers. The main aim of this study is to examine the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Turkey. The study utilized annual data over the period of 1965-2017 and ARDL bounds testing approach to evaluate the impact of number of tourist arrivals, financial development, trade openness and capital stock on economic growth. The findings show that the tourism led growth hypothesis is valid for Turkey both in the short and long run. In addition, increases in financial development, trade openness and capital stock support economic growth in the long run. Therefore, it is necessary to effectively use tourism as well as other policy tools for sustainable economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis
• Financial Development
• Trade Openness
• ARDL Approach

Kaynakça

1. Antonakakis, N., Dragouni, M. & Filis, G. (2015). How Strong is the Linkage between Tourism and Economic Growth in Europe?. Economic Modelling, 44, 142-155.
2. Balaguer, J. & Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2002). Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case. Applied Economics, 34(7), 877-884.
3. Bilen, M., Yilanci, V. & Eryuzlu, H. (2017). Tourism Development and Economic Growth: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis in the Frequency Domain. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(1), 27-32.
4. Bozgeyik, Y. & Yoloğlu, Y. (2015). Türkiye'de Turizm Gelirleri ile GSYH Arasındaki İlişki: 2002-2014 Dönemi. Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8(40), 627-640.
5. Brida, J. G., Cortes-Jimenez, I. & Pulina, M. (2016). Has the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis been Validated? A Literature Review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5), 394-430.
6. Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 37(2), 149-192.
7. Cernat, L. & Gourdon, J. (2012). Paths to Success: Benchmarking Cross-Country Sustainable Tourism. Tourism Management, 33(5), 1044-1056.
8. Çil Yavuz, N. (2006). Türkiye'de Turizm Gelirlerinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisinin Testi: Yapısal Kırılma ve Nedensellik Analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 7(2), 162-171.

9. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 49(4), 1057-1072.
10. Dogru, T. & Bulut, U. (2018). Is Tourism an Engine for Economic Recovery? Theory and Empirical Evidence. Tourism Management, 67, 425-434.
11. Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T. J. & Stock, J. H. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root. Econometrica, 64(4), 813-836.
12. Ertugrul, H. M. & Mangir, F. (2015). The Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Turkey. Current Issues in Tourism, 18(7), 633-646.
13. Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C. & Tadasse, B. (2008). Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa. Tourism Economics, 14(4), 807-818.
14. Işık, C. (2016). Türkiye’de Turizm Harcamaları, Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımıyla Analizi. Uluslararası Türk Dünyası Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(1), 1-8.
15. Jalil, A., Mahmood, T. & Idrees, M. (2013). Tourism–Growth Nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests. Economic Modelling, 35, 185-191.
16. Karimi, M. S. (2018). The Linkage Between Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia: A Nonlinear Approach. International Economic Journal, 32(1), 53-65.
17. Katircioglu, S. T. (2009). Revisiting the Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis for Turkey Using the Bounds Test and Johansen Approach for Cointegration. Tourism Management, 30(1), 17-20.
18. Khoshnevis Yazdi, S., Homa Salehi, K., & Soheilzad, M. (2017). The Relationship between Tourism, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Iran. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(1), 15-26.
19. Kızılkaya, O., Sofuoğlu, E. & Karaçor, Z. (2016). Türkiye'de Turizm Gelirleri-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 23(1), 203-215.
20. Kumar, R. R. (2014). Exploring the Nexus between Tourism, Remittances and Growth in Kenya. Quality & Quantity, 48(3), 1573-1588.
21. Lanza, A. & Pigliaru, F. (2000). Why are Tourism Countries Small and Fast-Growing?. In Tourism and Sustainable Economic Development (s. 57-69). Boston: Springer.
22. Li, K. X., Jin, M. & Shi, W. (2018). Tourism as an Important Impetus to Promoting Economic Growth: A Critical Review. Tourism Management Perspectives, 26, 135-142.
23. Narayan, P. K. (2005). The Saving and Investment nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
24. Ohlan, R. (2017). The Relationship between Tourism, Financial Development and Economic Growth in India. Future Business Journal, 3(1), 9-22.
25. Ozturk, I. & Acaravci, A. (2009). On the Causality between Tourism Growth and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 5(25), 73-81.
26. Özcan, C. C. (2015). Turizm Gelirleri-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Yaklaşımı ile Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 46, 177-199.
27. Papatheodorou, A. (1999). The Demand for International Tourism in the Mediterranean Region. Applied Economics, 31(5), 619-630.
28. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, Cambridge; Cambridge University Press.
29. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
30. Roudi, S., Arasli, H. & Akadiri, S. S. (2019). New Insights into an Old Issue–Examining the Influence of Tourism on Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected Small Island Developing States. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(11), 1280-1300.
31. Seetanah, B. (2011). Assessing the Dynamic Economic Impact of Tourism for Island Economies. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(1), 291-308.
32. Shahbaz, M., Kumar, R. R., Ivanov, S. & Loganathan, N. (2017). The Nexus between Tourism Demand and Output Per Capita with the Relative Importance of Trade Openness and Financial Development: A Study of Malaysia. Tourism Economics, 23(1), 168-186.
33. Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
34. Tang, C. F. & Tan, E. C. (2015). Does Tourism Effectively Stimulate Malaysia's Economic Growth?. Tourism Management, 46, 158-163.
35. Terzi, H. & Pata, U. K. (2016). Türkiye’nin İktisadi Büyümesinde Turizm Sektörünün Katkısı. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 48, 45-64.
36. Tugcu, C. T. (2014). Tourism and Economic Growth nexus Revisited: A Panel Causality Analysis for the Case of the Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42, 207-212.
37. UNWTO (2017). 2017 Annual Report. https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284419807 Erişim Tarihi (10.12.2019).
38. UNWTO (2018). UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2018 Edition. https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284419876 Erişim Tarihi (10.12.2019).