TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM GELİRİNİN MAKROEKONOMİK BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ1

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 1, 203 - 220, 30.04.2015

Ceyhun Can Özcan

Öz

Türk turizm sektörü son yıllarda kayda değer bir büyüme sergilemektedir. Bununla birlikte turist sayısı son 10 yılda %250 artış gösterirken turizm geliri ancak %233 oranında artabilmiştir. Ayrıca turist başı ortalama harcama miktarının yıllar itibari ile düştüğü göze çarpan parametreler arasındadır.

Çalışmada Türkiye’nin turizm gelirinin belirleyicileri, 1995-2011 yılları için, Türkiye’ye en çok turist gönderen ilk 20 ülke örnekleminde ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada uluslararası turizm geliri belirleyicileri arasında yer alan kişi başına gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla, turistik mal ve hizmetlerin fiyatı, döviz kuru gibi makroekonomik değişkenler ve politik istikrar değişkenleri panel veri analizi yöntemi ile test edilmiştir.

Modelde kullanılan tüm değişkenlerin turizm gelirine katkı sağladığı ancak kişi başına gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve reel döviz kuru değişkenlerinin Turizm gelirinin belirleyicileri arasında önemli bir yere sahip olduğu elde edilen bulgular arasındadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turizm Geliri, Panel Veri, Döviz Kuru, Türkiye Turizm Talebi

Kaynakça

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