Evaluation of Streamflow Simulation By SWAT Model for The Seyhan River Basin

Öz

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the hydrological water balance from the
Seyhan river basin located in Turkey. The model sensitivity analysis and auto-calibration were conducted at
four sites (i.e., Uctepe, Himmetli, Korkun and Zamanti) using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2), the
Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) and Parameter Solution (ParaSol) algorithms in the
SWAT-Calibration Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP) package. The sensitivity analysis showed that the
base-flow alpha factor (ALPHA_BF) and SCS runoff curve number (CN2) are the most sensitive parameters
for this catchment. All sources of uncertainties were captured by bracketing more than 60% of the observed
river discharge when using SUFI-2 and ParaSol except for ParaSol at Uctepe (57%). Streamflow calibration
was done at a monthly time step for the period of 2001-2007. The results showed that ParaSol gave better
results than those obtained by SUFI-2 and GLUE with regard to the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). Among
all of the calibrated sites and the various calibration algorithms, the highest NSE (0.74) was obtained when the
model was calibrated at Zamanti using the ParaSol algorithm. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hydrologic modelling
• Seyhan river basin
• SWAT model
• streamflow simulation

Seyhan Havzasında SWAT Modeli İle Nehir Akış Simülasyonu Ve Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

Toprak ve Su Değerlendirme Yazılımı (SWAT) Türkiye'de bulunan Seyhan nehri havzasında hidrolojik işlemleri su bütçesini temel alarak simüle etmek için kullanılmıştır. Model duyarlılık analizi ve otomatik kalibrasyonlar, SWAT-Kalibrasyon paket programında (SWAT-CUP) bulunan, Sıralı Belirsizlik Uygunluğu (SUFI-2), Genelleştirilmiş Olabilir Belirsizlik Tahmini (GLUE) ve Parametre Çözümü (ParaSol) algoritmaları kullanılarak, Üçtepe, Himmetli, Korkun ve Zamantı akarsuları için yapılmıştır. Duyarlılık analizi sonucunda, Baz Akış Alfa Faktörü (ALPHA_BF) ve SCS akış eğri numarasının (CN2) bu havza için akıma etki eden en hassas parametreler olduğunu göstermiştir. Gözlenen akım verilerinde tüm belirsizlik kaynaklarının ParaSol sonucunda Üçtepe (% 57) hariç, SUFI-2 ve ParaSol sonuçlarında %60’dan fazla olduğu görülmüştür. Akış verilerinin kalibrasyonu aylık bazda 2001-2007 dönemi için yapılmıştır. Nash Sutcliffe Katsayısına (NSE) göre ParaSol, SUFI-2 ve GLUE’ye göre daha iyi sonuçlar vermiştir. Kullanılan kalibrasyon algoritmaları arasında en iyi sonuç, (NSE=0.74) Zamanti akış verilerinin Parasol algoritması ile kalibrasyonu sonucu bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hidrolojik modelleme
• Seyhan havzası
• SWAT modeli
• nehir akış simülasyonu

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