Divided We Stand: A Game Theoretic Analysis of the Semi-Centennial Cyprus Dispute

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 40, 1 - 14, 01.06.2013

Bülent Temel

Öz

In this article, game theoretic models are used to explain why the dispute on Northern Cyprus has been continuing for over half a century, and to propose measures to increase the prospects of resolution in the future. Public opinion polls on the Greek and Turkish sides of the island prior to the two referendums on the Annan Plan in 2004 revealed that perceived payoffs in the plan created a negotiations game, in which Nash equilibrium did not exist in the case of coop‑eration. For peace negotiations to conclude successfully in the future, game model they resemble needs to be converted into a stag hunt game, in which Nash payoffs are present not only in mutual defection, but also in cooperation. As an international organization that associates with all primary actors of the conflict, European Union would be the authority that is best equipped to influence the payoffs and the cognition of the game so that such a conversion could be facilitated conciliatorily

Anahtar Kelimeler

Cyprus, game theory, prisoner’s dilemma, stag hunt game, Nash equilibrium

Benimsenen Ayrıklık: Yarım Yüzyıllık Kıbrıs Anlaşmazlığının Oyun Kuramsal Bir Çözümlemesi

Öz

Bu çalışmada Kuzey Kıbrıs üzerindeki anlaşmazlığın neden yarım yüzyılı aşkın bir süredir devam ettiği ve bu sorunun çözümü için nelerin yapılabileceği oyun kuramı modelleri vasıtasıyla açıklanmaktadır. Adada Annan Planı’na dair 2004’te yapılan iki halkoylamasından önce yürütülen kamuoyu yoklamaları iki halkın planın sunduğu çıkarları Nash dengesinin işbirliğinde ortaya çıkmadığı bir müzakereler oyununu üretecek şekilde algıladıklarını ortaya koymuştur. Barış görüşmelerinin gelecekte başarıyla sonuçlanabilmesi için temsil ettikleri oyun modelinin Nash noktasının sadece uzlaşmama seçeneğinde değil işbirliği yapma seçeneğinde de ortaya çıktığı bir geyik avı oyununa dönüştürülmesi gerekmektedir. Bu dönüşümün yapıcı bir şekilde gerçekleştirilmesi için gerekli olan çıkar ve algı yönetimi işlevini yapmaya en uygun olan otorite konunun tüm taraflarını ilgilendiren bir uluslararası örgüt olan Avrupa Birliği olacaktır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kıbrıs, oyun kuramı, tutsakların ikilemi, geyik avı oyunu, Nash dengesi

Kaynakça

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