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Divided We Stand: A Game Theoretic Analysis of the Semi-Centennial Cyprus Dispute

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 40, 1 - 14, 01.06.2013

Öz

In this article, game theoretic models are used to explain why the dispute on Northern Cyprus has been continuing for over half a century, and to propose measures to increase the prospects of resolution in the future. Public opinion polls on the Greek and Turkish sides of the island prior to the two referendums on the Annan Plan in 2004 revealed that perceived payoffs in the plan created a negotiations game, in which Nash equilibrium did not exist in the case of coop‑eration. For peace negotiations to conclude successfully in the future, game model they resemble needs to be converted into a stag hunt game, in which Nash payoffs are present not only in mutual defection, but also in cooperation. As an international organization that associates with all primary actors of the conflict, European Union would be the authority that is best equipped to influence the payoffs and the cognition of the game so that such a conversion could be facilitated conciliatorily

Kaynakça

  • Andronikos, Pavlos (2002). The Annan Plan. Neos Kosmos 25 November.
  • Camp, Glen (1980). Greek-Turkish conflict over Cyprus. Political Science Quarterly, 95(1): 43- 70.
  • Cassia, Paul Sant (1999). Martyrdom and witnessing: Violence, terror and recollection in Cyprus. Terrorism and Political Violence, 11(1): 213-245. Dinkov, Dinko & Stoyan Stoyanov (2005). The Cyprus problem: International politics simulation.
  • International Journal of Law and Management, 47(3): 172.
  • Drousiotis, Makarios (2004) comment on The psychological war is in full swing.
  • Encyclopedia Britannica, entry on ‘Treaty of Lausanne’, accessed August 25, 2012; http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/ topic/332502/Treaty-of-Lausanne.
  • European Court of Human Rights. Cyprus vs. Turkey, 2001-IV, application no: 25781/94.
  • Hill, George (1952). A History of Cyprus: The Ottoman Province The British Colony, 1571‑1948. Cambridge: The University Press.
  • Kaymak, Erol (2009). The Turkish Cypriot views of the Annan Plan. In: Andrekos Varnava & Hubert Faustmann (eds.) The Failure to Reunify Cyprus: The Annan Plan, the Referendums of 2004 and the Aftermath. London & New York: I. B. Tauris.
  • King, Gillian (1963). Documents on International Affairs 1959. London: Oxford University Press.
  • Kuyucu, Ali Tuna (2005). Ethno-religious unmixing of Turkey: 6–7 September riots as a case in Turkish nationalism. Nations and Nationalism, 11(3): 361-380.
  • Lambrou, Evan C. & Demetris A. Filios (2004). Greek Cypriots galvanized against Annan Plan. Hellenic Times 16 March.
  • Lester, Robert E. (1963). The John F. Kennedy National Security Files, 1961–1963. Middle East, First supplement.
  • Loizides, Neophytos (2002). Greek-Turkish dilemmas and the Cyprus EU accession process. Security Dialogue, 33(4): 429-442.
  • Mallinson, William (2005). Cyprus: A Modern History. London: I. B. Tauris.
  • Migdalovitz, Carol (2002). Cyprus: Status of UN Negotiations. Washington: CRS.
  • Seabright, Paul (2004). The Company of Strangers: A Natural History of Economic Life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Skyrms, Brian (2001). The Stag Hunt. Proceedings and Addresses of the American Philosophical Association, 75(2): 31-41.
  • Skyrms, Brian (2004). The Stag Hunt and the Evolution of the Social Contract. New York City: Cambridge University Press.
  • Sözen, Ahmet & Kudret Özersay (2007). The Annan Plan: State succession or continuity. Middle Eastern Studies, 43(1): 125-141.
  • The United Nations (2004). Basis for a Comprehensive Settlement of the Cyprus Problem. New York City.
  • Turnbull, Stephen (2003). The Ottoman Empire 1326–1699 (Essential Histories Series‑62). Oxford: Osprey Publishing.
  • Tocci, Nathalie (2010). Reunifying Cyprus: The Annan Plan and beyond. Southern European Society and Politics, 15(2): 335-337.
  • Yeşilada, Birol & Ahmet Sözen (2002). Negotiating a resolution to the Cyprus problem: Is potential European Union membership a blessing or a curse? International Negotiation, 7(2): 261-285.
  • Yılmaz, Muzaffer (2005). The Cyprus conflict and the Annan Plan: Why one more failure? Ege Akademik Bakış, 5(1): 29-39.

Benimsenen Ayrıklık: Yarım Yüzyıllık Kıbrıs Anlaşmazlığının Oyun Kuramsal Bir Çözümlemesi

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 40, 1 - 14, 01.06.2013

Öz

Bu çalışmada Kuzey Kıbrıs üzerindeki anlaşmazlığın neden yarım yüzyılı aşkın bir süredir devam ettiği ve bu sorunun çözümü için nelerin yapılabileceği oyun kuramı modelleri vasıtasıyla açıklanmaktadır. Adada Annan Planı’na dair 2004’te yapılan iki halkoylamasından önce yürütülen kamuoyu yoklamaları iki halkın planın sunduğu çıkarları Nash dengesinin işbirliğinde ortaya çıkmadığı bir müzakereler oyununu üretecek şekilde algıladıklarını ortaya koymuştur. Barış görüşmelerinin gelecekte başarıyla sonuçlanabilmesi için temsil ettikleri oyun modelinin Nash noktasının sadece uzlaşmama seçeneğinde değil işbirliği yapma seçeneğinde de ortaya çıktığı bir geyik avı oyununa dönüştürülmesi gerekmektedir. Bu dönüşümün yapıcı bir şekilde gerçekleştirilmesi için gerekli olan çıkar ve algı yönetimi işlevini yapmaya en uygun olan otorite konunun tüm taraflarını ilgilendiren bir uluslararası örgüt olan Avrupa Birliği olacaktır

Kaynakça

  • Andronikos, Pavlos (2002). The Annan Plan. Neos Kosmos 25 November.
  • Camp, Glen (1980). Greek-Turkish conflict over Cyprus. Political Science Quarterly, 95(1): 43- 70.
  • Cassia, Paul Sant (1999). Martyrdom and witnessing: Violence, terror and recollection in Cyprus. Terrorism and Political Violence, 11(1): 213-245. Dinkov, Dinko & Stoyan Stoyanov (2005). The Cyprus problem: International politics simulation.
  • International Journal of Law and Management, 47(3): 172.
  • Drousiotis, Makarios (2004) comment on The psychological war is in full swing.
  • Encyclopedia Britannica, entry on ‘Treaty of Lausanne’, accessed August 25, 2012; http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/ topic/332502/Treaty-of-Lausanne.
  • European Court of Human Rights. Cyprus vs. Turkey, 2001-IV, application no: 25781/94.
  • Hill, George (1952). A History of Cyprus: The Ottoman Province The British Colony, 1571‑1948. Cambridge: The University Press.
  • Kaymak, Erol (2009). The Turkish Cypriot views of the Annan Plan. In: Andrekos Varnava & Hubert Faustmann (eds.) The Failure to Reunify Cyprus: The Annan Plan, the Referendums of 2004 and the Aftermath. London & New York: I. B. Tauris.
  • King, Gillian (1963). Documents on International Affairs 1959. London: Oxford University Press.
  • Kuyucu, Ali Tuna (2005). Ethno-religious unmixing of Turkey: 6–7 September riots as a case in Turkish nationalism. Nations and Nationalism, 11(3): 361-380.
  • Lambrou, Evan C. & Demetris A. Filios (2004). Greek Cypriots galvanized against Annan Plan. Hellenic Times 16 March.
  • Lester, Robert E. (1963). The John F. Kennedy National Security Files, 1961–1963. Middle East, First supplement.
  • Loizides, Neophytos (2002). Greek-Turkish dilemmas and the Cyprus EU accession process. Security Dialogue, 33(4): 429-442.
  • Mallinson, William (2005). Cyprus: A Modern History. London: I. B. Tauris.
  • Migdalovitz, Carol (2002). Cyprus: Status of UN Negotiations. Washington: CRS.
  • Seabright, Paul (2004). The Company of Strangers: A Natural History of Economic Life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Skyrms, Brian (2001). The Stag Hunt. Proceedings and Addresses of the American Philosophical Association, 75(2): 31-41.
  • Skyrms, Brian (2004). The Stag Hunt and the Evolution of the Social Contract. New York City: Cambridge University Press.
  • Sözen, Ahmet & Kudret Özersay (2007). The Annan Plan: State succession or continuity. Middle Eastern Studies, 43(1): 125-141.
  • The United Nations (2004). Basis for a Comprehensive Settlement of the Cyprus Problem. New York City.
  • Turnbull, Stephen (2003). The Ottoman Empire 1326–1699 (Essential Histories Series‑62). Oxford: Osprey Publishing.
  • Tocci, Nathalie (2010). Reunifying Cyprus: The Annan Plan and beyond. Southern European Society and Politics, 15(2): 335-337.
  • Yeşilada, Birol & Ahmet Sözen (2002). Negotiating a resolution to the Cyprus problem: Is potential European Union membership a blessing or a curse? International Negotiation, 7(2): 261-285.
  • Yılmaz, Muzaffer (2005). The Cyprus conflict and the Annan Plan: Why one more failure? Ege Akademik Bakış, 5(1): 29-39.
Toplam 25 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Özgün Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Bülent Temel Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Haziran 2013
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2013 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 40

Kaynak Göster

APA Temel, B. (2013). Divided We Stand: A Game Theoretic Analysis of the Semi-Centennial Cyprus Dispute. Kıbrıs Araştırmaları Dergisi, 17(40), 1-14.

Kıbrıs Araştırmaları Dergisi

Kıbrıs Araştırmaları Merkezi

Doğu Akdeniz Üniversitesi

Gazimağusa, Kuzey Kıbrıs, Mersin 10, Turkey