Investigation of Flooding due to Dam Failure: A Case Study of Darlık Dam

Öz

Dams are engineering structures that are of great importance in regularly meeting the drinking and utility water that we need, providing electrical energy needs, protecting residential areas against floods, and creating recreation areas. Although dams have many benefits, it is known that the damages in these structures poses serious disaster risk for the settlement areas located downstream. In addition, our existing dams, which are aging, and in addition to these, our dams that are increasing day by day, increase the disaster risk even more, especially in areas with increasing residential areas downstream. In this study, Darlık Dam, which is located in Istanbul and has a dense residential area on its downstream, was selected as the study area. Dam failure simulation was developed at the downstream of Darlık Dam and the areas that would be affected by the flood wave were observed. In this context, it is aimed to contribute to the determination of the areas where measures should be taken by the authorized institutions and to the prevention or reduction of the disasters that will occur due to dam failure. Failure analyzes of Darlık dam were generated by using HEC-RAS program. In accordance with the dam breach scenario, the breach parameters were defined into the HEC-RAS program and the dam failure flood analysis was modelled in two dimensions. Within the scope of the study, flood flow, water velocity and water depth were calculated in case of possible dam failure. Flood inundation, depth and velocity maps were obtained. Flood hazard areas was created and possible flood wave’s hazard ratio was determined by observing flood inundation areas. Finally, damage of buildings in flood wave areas was calculated and damage ratio and risk maps were obtained. According to the result of damage calculation, it was observed that approximately 3043 buildings were damaged. The damage ratio was shown on the flood inundation areas. It was concluded that %80.05 of all buildings affected by the flood are in the very high risk class. In the next stage, each building in the flood inundation areas was marked according to its risk class, shown in risk maps and presented within the scope of the study.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dam Failure
• HEC-RAS
• Darlık Dam
• Flood Inundation Map and Flood Risk Map

Baraj Yıkılması Sonucu Oluşan Taşkının İncelenmesi: Darlık Barajı Örneği

Öz

Barajlar ihtiyacımız olan içme ve kullanma sularının düzenli olarak karşılanmasında, enerji ihtiyacının sağlanmasında, yerleşim alanlarının sel baskınlarına karşı korunmasında, rekreasyon alanlarının oluşturulmasında büyük öneme sahip mühendislik yapılarıdır. Sağladığı birçok fayda olmasına rağmen bu yapılarda oluşan hasarların, mansabında yer alan yerleşim alanları için ciddi afet riski oluşturduğu bilinmektedir. Ayrıca, eskimekte olan mevcut barajlarımız ve bunlara ek olarak her geçen gün artan barajlarımız, özellikle mansabında yerleşim alanları artan bölgelerde afet riskini daha da artırmaktadır. Bu çalışma kapsamında çalışma alanı olarak, İstanbul’da yer alan ve mansabında yoğun yerleşim alanı bulunan Darlık Barajı seçilmiştir. Darlık Barajı mansabında baraj yıkılma simülasyonu yapılmış ve taşkın dalgasının etkiyeceği alanlar belirlenmiştir. Bu kapsamda, yetkili kurumlar tarafından önlem alınması gereken alanların tespit edilmesine, baraj yıkılması sonucu oluşacak felaketlerin önlenmesine veya azaltılmasına katkı sağlanması amaçlanmıştır. Darlık Barajına ait yıkılma analizleri HEC-RAS programı kullanılarak oluşturulmuştur. Baraj gediklenme senaryosuna uygun olarak gediklenme parametreleri HEC-RAS programına tanımlanmış ve baraj yıkılması taşkın analizi 2 boyutlu olarak modellenmiştir. Çalışma kapsamında olası baraj yıkılması durumunda meydana gelecek taşkın debisi, su hızı ve su derinliği hesaplanmıştır. Taşkın yayılım, derinlik ve hız haritaları elde edilmiştir. Taşkın yayılım alanları incelenerek taşkın tehlike haritaları çıkarılmış ve oluşması muhtemel taşkın dalgasının tehlike boyutu belirlenmiştir. Son olarak ise taşkın yayılım alanında kalan binalarda zarar hesabı yapılmış, zarar yüzdesi ve risk haritaları elde edilmiştir. Zarar hesabı sonuçlarına göre yaklaşık 3043 binanın hasar gördüğü gözlenmiştir. Zarar yüzdeleri taşkın yayılım alanı üzerinde gösterilmiştir. Taşkından etkilenen tüm binaların %80.05’inin çok yüksek riskli sınıfta olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Daha sonraki aşamada taşkın yayılım alanında kalan her bir bina risk sınıfına göre işaretlenmiş, risk haritalarında gösterilmiş ve çalışma kapsamında sunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Baraj Yıkılması
• HEC-RAS
• Darlık Barajı
• Taşkın Yayılım Haritası ve Taşkın Risk Haritası

Kaynakça

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