Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Particulate Matter (PM10) and Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Concentrations in Ankara Using Climate Parameters

Öz

Air pollution in Turkey has become a significant issue, particularly in large cities, due to population growth, unplanned urbanization, and increases in industrial and energy facilities. Particulate Matter (PM10) and Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) concentrations significantly deteriorate air quality due to high emissions from industrial and energy production. Ankara, one of the major cities facing air pollution problems, is noted as having air pollution among the top issues in the 2022 Turkey Environmental Issues and Priorities Assessment Report. This study aims to investigate the spatial-temporal changes in PM10 and SO2 concentrations in Ankara from 2011 to 2014 under the influence of meteorological factors using the Kriging with External Drift (KED) method. In 2011, PM10 and SO2 concentration levels were lower compared to other years but remained above the annual concentration limits set by the World Health Organization (WHO). In 2012 and 2013, increases in PM10 and SO2 concentrations were observed, showing variability across different regions of the city. In 2014, a notable decrease in PM10 and SO2 concentrations was observed, coinciding with increased rainfall and temperature values. When evaluating the performance of the prediction models for PM10 and SO2 concentrations, it is found that the PM10 model explains 66% and the SO2 model explains 78% of the variance. The spatial-temporal KED analysis of PM10 and SO2 concentrations using meteorological factors is crucial for understanding the changes in air pollution and comprehending the relationships between spatial variables and their interactions over time.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Air Pollution
• Particulate Matter (PM10)
• Sulphur Dioxide (SO2)
• Spatio-Temporal Distribution
• Kriging with External Drift (KED)

Ankara’da Partikül Madde (PM10) ve Kükürt Dioksit (SO2) Konsantrasyonlarının İklim Parametreleri İle Mekânsal-Zamansal Analizi

Öz

Türkiye’de hava kirliliği, özellikle büyük şehirlerde, nüfus artışı, plansız kentleşme, sanayi ve enerji tesislerindeki artış nedeniyle ciddi bir sorun haline gelmiştir. Partikül Madde (PM10) ve Kükürt Dioksit (SO2) konsantrasyonları, sanayi ve enerji üretimindeki yüksek emisyonlar sonucu hava kalitesini önemli ölçüde bozmaktadır. Hava kirliliği sorunuyla karşılaşan büyük şehirlerden biri olan Ankara, 2022 Türkiye Çevre Sorunları ve Öncelikleri Değerlendirme Raporu'nda hava kirliliğinin öncelikli sorunlar arasında ikinci sırada yer aldığı belirtilmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2011–2014 yılları arasında Ankara’da PM10 ve SO2 konsantrasyonlarının, meteorolojik faktörlerin etkisi altında mekânsal-zamansal değişimlerini Kriging with External Drift (KED) yöntemi kullanarak incelemektir. 2011 yılında, PM10 ve SO2 konsantrasyon değerleri, diğer yıllara göre daha düşük seviyelerde olup, Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (World Health Organization, WHO) tarafından belirlenen yıllık konsantrasyon değerlerinin üzerinde kalmıştır. 2012 ve 2013 yıllarında, PM10 ve SO2 konsantrasyonlarında artış gözlemlenmiş ve şehrin farklı bölgelerinde değişkenlik göstermiştir. 2014 yılında, artan yağış ve sıcaklık değerleri ile birlikte, PM10 ve SO2 konsantrasyonlarında dikkat çekici bir azalma yaşanmıştır. PM10 ve SO2 konsantrasyonlarına ait tahmin modellerinin performansı değerlendirildiğinde, PM10 modelinin %66, SO2 modelinin %78 oranında açıklayıcı güce sahip olduğu görülmektedir. PM10 ve SO2 konsantrasyonlarının meteorolojik faktörler kullanılarak yapılan mekânsal-zamansal KED analizi, hava kirliliğinin değişimlerini anlamak ve mekânsal değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri ile zaman içindeki etkileşimleri kavrayabilmek açısından önemlidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hava Kirliliği
• Partikül Madde (PM10)
• Kükürt Dioksit (SO2)
• Mekânsal-Zamansal Dağılım
• Kriging with External Drift (KED)

Kaynakça

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