Orman Yangın Yönetiminde Etkili Bir Karar Destek Sisteminin Kavramsal Çerçevesi

Öz

Orman yangın organizasyonları, yangınlarla mücadelede başarılı olabilmek için doğru, güncel ve kolaylıkla elde edilebilir bilgilere ihtiyaç duyar. Bu bilgilerin temini, yangın risk ve tehlike potansiyeli ile yangın davranışı hakkında doğru ve hızlı bilgi verebilen kapsamlı bir sistemin varlığı ile mümkün olabilir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye orman yangın organizasyonu ve yangın yönetim planlamalarında kullanılabilecek bir Karar Destek Sisteminin (KDS) kavramsal çerçevesi, yapısı ve hiyerarşisi belirlenmiştir. KDS tasarımında, bir bütün halinde veya ayrı ayrı çalışabilecek dört alt sistem öngörülmüştür. Bunlar; i) Yangın Bilgi Sistemi; orman yangınları ile ilgili mekânsal, zamansal ve tanımlayıcı bilgilerin depolandığı ve veriler üzerinden akıllı sorgulamaların yapılabildiği alt sistem, ii) Yangın Çıkma İhtimalini Tahmin Sistemi; sabit ve değişken çevre faktörlerini dikkate alan ve belirli bir alan için yangın risk ve tehlike potansiyelini derecelendiren alt sistem, iii) Meteorolojik Yangın İndeksi Sistemi; yanıcı madde nemine bağlı olarak yanıcı maddelerin tutuşabilirliğini belirleyen ve yangının başlaması durumunda potansiyel yangın yayılma oranı ve yangın şiddeti hakkında bilgi veren alt sistem ve iv) Yangın Davranışı Tahmin Sistemi; yangın davranışını farklı hava halleri, topoğrafya ve yanıcı madde özelliklerine bağlı olarak tahmin etmeye çalışan alt sistemidir. Geliştirilen sistem tasarımı uygulamada kullanılabilecek şekilde hazır hale geldiğinde, orman yangınları ile mücadelede yangın yöneticilerine yangın öncesi, yangınla mücadele ve yangın sonrası planlamalarda önemli katkılar sunacak potansiyeldedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Karar Destek Sistemi,Orman Yangınları,Yangın Riski,Yangın Tehlikesi,Yangın Davranışı

Conceptual Framework of an Effective Decision Support System in Forest Fire Management

Öz

Forest fire management organizations require accurate, timely and readily available information to be successful in forest fire suppression. A sound decision support system is necessary to acquire and make this information available to fire management organization. In this study, the framework, structure and hierarchy of a Decision Support System (DSS) was designed in forest fire management organization and planning in Turkey. DSS consists of four subsystems which can operate individually or collectively. These subsystems are; i) Fire Information System; a smart database for fire managers to input, store, update and manage data easily, ii) Fire Occurrence Prediction System; forest fire risk and danger determiner using constant environmental variables iii) Fire Weather Index System; fire weather index calculator for the ignition potential of fuels, potential rate of spread and fire intensity, iv) Fire Behavior Prediction System; fire propagation simulator for predicting fire behavior under varying weather, fuel and topographic conditions. When readily available for operational use, the DSS will have the potential to provide fire managers with tools and support necessary for successful fire prevention/presuppression, suppression and post fire management planning.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Decision Support System,Forest Fires,Fire Risk,Fire Danger,Fire Behavior

Kaynakça

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