TÜRKİYE’NİN BÜYÜME DİNAMİĞİNDE İHRACAT MI İTHALAT MI DAHA ETKİN?

Öz

Bu çalışmada, ihracat ve ithalat yönlü büyüme hipotezleri çerçevesinde, 1989-2007 döneminde, Türkiye’nin GSYİH’sının büyüme dinamiğine ihracat ve ithalatın katkısı araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; daralma döneminden genişleme dönemine geçerken ihracat baskın rol oynamaktadır, ekonomi genişleme döneminde iken bu sürecin sürdürülmesinde ihracat ve ithalat birlikte katkı sağlamaktadır ve ihracatın ve ithalatın söz konusu katkıları azalma eğilimindedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Büyüme, Ihracat, Ithalat, Markov rejim değişmeleri

DOES EXPORT OR IMPORT MORE EFFECTIVE ON TURKISH GROWTH DYNAMICS?

Öz

In this study, the scope of export and import oriented growth hypothesis, export and imports’ contribution to the dynamic of the Turkish GDP Growth have been investigated during the period between 1989 and 2007. According to the diagnoses which are found, export plays a dominant role while the economy is shifting from ressesion mode to expanding period. In order to continue this process, export and import together provides a great amount of contribution, while the contributions of export and import tend to decrease during the expanding period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Growth, Export, Import, Markov switching

Kaynakça

1. Ahmed, Q.M. ve M.S. Butt,. ve S. Alam (2000) “Economic Growth, Export and: and External Debt Causalty: The Case of Asian Countries”, The Pakistan Development Review, 39(4), 591-608.
2. Awokuse, T. O. (2006) “Causality between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies”, Economics Letters, 94, 389-95.
3. Bhagwati, J. (1978) Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.
4. Bhagwati, J. (1982) Directly Unproductive Profit Seeking (DUP) Activities, Journal of Political Economy, 90(5), 988–1002
5. Bahmani-Oskooee ve M., J. Alse (1993) “Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 27, 535-542.
6. Bahmani-OskooeeM. ve I. Domac, (1995) “Export Growth and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis”, METU Studies in Development, 22, 67-77.
7. Bahmani-Oskooee M. ve F. Niroomand, (1999) “Openness and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Applied Economic Letters, 6, 557-61.
8. Balassa, B. (1978) “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 181-89.

9. Balassa, B. (1980) The Process of Industrial Development and Alternative Development- Strategies, Essays in International Finance, No. 141, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University, (December).
10. Barro, R. ve X. Sala-I-Martin, (1995) Economic Growth, New York: McGraw-Hill.
11. Bruton, H. (1989) “Import Substitution”. Chenery, H. ve T.N. Srinivasan, eds. Handbook of Development Economics, 2. North-Holland, Amsterdam.
12. Chow, P. C. Y. (1987) “Causality between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence from the NICs”, Journal of Development Economics, 26(1): 55-63.
13. Chandra, R. (2002) “Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Investigation of Causalty in India”, The Indian Economic Journal, 49(3) 64-73.
14. Chen, S. (2006), “Revisiting the Interest Rate–Exchange Rate Nexus: A Markov-Switching Approach”, Journal of Development Economics, 79, 208-224.
15. Coe, T.D. ve E. Helpman, (1995), “International R&D Spillovers,” European Economic Review 39, 859–887.
16. Doraisami, A. (1996) “Export Growth and Economic Growth: A Re-examination of Some Time Series Evidence of the Malaysian Experience”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 30, 223- 230.
17. Franses, H. ve Dijk, D. (2006), Non-linear Time Series Models in Emprical Finance, Canbiridge University Press.
18. Edwards, S. (1992) “Trade Orientation, Distortions and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 39(1) 31-57.
19. El-Sakka, M.I. ve N.H. Al-Mutairi, (2000) “Exports and Economic Growth: The Arap Experience”, The Pakistan Development Review, 39(4) 153-169.
20. Emery, R. F. (1967) “The Relation of Exports and Economic Growth”, Kyklos, 20(2): 470-86.
21. Grossman, H. (1991) “Trade, Innovation and Growth”, American Economic Review, 80: 86-91.
22. Grossman, G. M., E. Helpman, (1990), “Comparative Advantage and Long-Run Growth”, American Economic Review, 80, 796-815.
23. Hamilton, J.D (1989), A New Approach To The Economic Analysis Of Nonstationary Time Series And The Business Cycle”, Econometrica 57, 357-384.
24. Hamilton, J.D (1994), Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press.
25. Heller, P. S. ve R. C Porter,. (1978) “Exports and Growth: An Empirical Re-investigation”, Journal of Development Economics, 5(2): 191-93.
26. Hsiao, M.C.V. (1987) “Test of Causalty and Exogenity between Exports and Economic Growth: The Case of Asian NIC’s”, Journal of Economic Development, 12, 143-59.
27. Jones, L. E. ve R. E Manuelli,. (1990), “ A Convex Model Of Equilibrium Growth: Theory And Policy Implications”, Journal of Political Economy, 98, 1008–38.
28. Jung, W. S. ve P. J. Marshall, (1985) “Exports, Growth and Causality in Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 18(1) 1-12.
29. Kavoussi, R. M. (1984) “Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 14 (1/2), 241-50.
30. Kösekahyaoğlu, L., C. Şentürk, (2006) “İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Testi: Türkiye ve Yeni Gelişen Ekonomiler Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir İnceleme”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2(4).
31. Kravis, I. B. (1970) “Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries”, Economic Journal, 80(320), 850-72.
32. Kruger, A. O. (1975) The Benefits and Costs of Import Substitution in India: A Microeconomic Study, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
33. Krueger, A. O. (1978) “Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences”, National Bureau of Economic Research, 273-74.
34. Kwan, A.C.C. ve B. Kwok (1995) “Exogenity and The Export-led Growth Hypothesis: The Case of China”, Southern Economic Journal, 61(8), 1158-1166.
35. Marwah, K., A. Tavakoli, (2004) “The Effect of Foreign Capital and Imports on Economic Growth: Further Evidence from Four Asian Countries (1970-1998)”, Journal of Asian Economics 15, 399-413.
36. Mazumdar, J., (2000) “Imported Machinery and Growth in LDCs”, Journal of Development Economics, 65, 209–224.
37. Michaely, M. (1977) “Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Development Economics, 4 (1), 49-53.
38. Moschos, D. (1989) “Export Expansion, Growth and The Level of Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis”, Journal of Development Economics, 30 (1), 93-102.
39. Özmen, E., G. Furtun, (1998) “Export-Led Growth Hypothesis and The Turkish Data: An Empirical Investication”, METU Studies in Development, 25 (3): 491-503.
40. Parida, P.C. ve Sahoo, P. (2007) “Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis”, International Economic Journal 21 (2), 155-75.
41. Ram, R. (1985) “Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33(2), 415-25.
42. Ram, R. (1987) “Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time- Series and Cross-Section Data”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36 (1), 51- 63.
43. Rebelo, S. (1991), “ Long-Run Policy Analysis And Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 99, 500-521.
44. Rıvera-Batiz, L.A. ve Romer, P.M. (1991) “Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106: 531-55.
45. Romer, P.M. (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, The Journal of Political Economy, 94 (5)., 1002-1037.
46. Romer, P.M. (1990), “Endogenous Technological Change”, The Journal of Political Economy, 98 (5), 71-102.
47. Sengupta, J.K. ve Espana, J.R. (1994) “Exports and Economic Growth in Asian NICs: An Econometric Analysis for Korea”, Applied Economics, 26, 41-51.
48. Serven, A. K. (1968) “The Relation of Exports and Economic Growth: Comment”, Kyklos, 21(3), 546-48.
49. Shan, J. ve Sun, F. (1998) “Export –led Growth Hypothesis for Australia: An Empirical Re- Investigation”, Applied Economics Letters, 5, 423-28.
50. Srinivasan, T. N. (1985), “Neoclassical Political Economy, the State and Economic Development”, Asian Development Review, 3(4), 38-58.
51. Syron, R. F., B. M. Walsh, (1968) “The Relation of Exports and Economic Growth: A Note”, Kyklos, 21/3: 541-45.
52. Şimşek, M. (2003) “İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Türkiye Ekonomisi Verileri ile Analizi, 1960-2002”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 18(2), 43-63.
53. Tyler, W. G. (1981) “Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 9(2), 121-130.
54. Utkulu U. ve H. Kahyaoğlu (2005); “Ticari ve Finansal Dışa Açıklık Türkiye’de Büyümeyi Ne Yönde Etkiledi?”, Türkiye http://www.tek.org.tr/dosyalar/Utkulu-2005.pdf Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni,
55. Williamson, R. (1978) “The Role of Exports and Foreign Capital in Latin American Economic Growth”. Southern Economic Journal 45(2), 410-20.
56. Yiğidim, A. ve N. Köse, (1997) “İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, İthalatın Rolü: Türkiye Örneği (1980-1996)”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 26(8), 71-85.