KAMU HARCAMALARI VE KAMU GELİRLERİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 2, 115 - 143, 25.12.2012

Gökhan Dökmen

Öz

Günümüzde OECD üyesi ülkelerin birçoğu yüksek bütçe açıkları ile karşı karşıyadır. Bu durum, bütçe açıklarını azaltmada vergilere mi yoksa kamu harcamalarına mı öncelik verileceğine yönelik tartışmaları gündeme getirmiştir. Bu nedenle kamu harcamaları ve kamu gelirleri arasındaki ilişki politika belirleyicileri açısından büyük önem ihtiva etmektedir. Bu çalışmada 34 OECD üyesi ülkenin 1994-2007 dönemi yıllık verilerine dayanılarak kamu harcamaları ile kamu gelirleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi ele alınmıştır. Bu çalışmanın ampirik sonuçları, kamu harcamaları ile vergi gelirleri arasında pozitif bir ilişkiyi desteklemektedir. Bununla birlikte Holtz-Eakin nedensellik test sonuçları, vergilerden kamu harcamalarına yönelik tek taraflı bir nedensellik ilişkisine ve OECD ülkeleri için vergi-harcama hipotezinin geçerliliğine işaret etmektedir. Bu bulgu, vergi gelirlerinin arttırılması sonucu bütçe açıklarının azaltılabileceği yönündeki geleneksel görüşe uygun düşmemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Vergi-harcama hipotezi, harcama-vergi hipotezi, bütçe açıkları, kamu harcamaları, vergiler

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND PUBLIC REVENUE: PANEL CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Öz

Today, most of the OECD member countries faced with high budget deficits. This case brings up the discussions on priority of reducing the budget deficits using expenditure or taxes to the agenda. For this reason, the relationship between public expenditure and public revenue has a great importance for policy makers. In this study the causality relationship between public expenditure and public revenue are investigated based on 34 OECD member countries annual data over 1994-2007 period. Empirical results of this study mainly support the positive relationship between public expenditures and tax revenues. Moreover, the results of Holtz-Eakin causality tests indicate the unidirectional causality running from tax revenues to public expenditures and the validity of tax-spend hypothesis for OECD member countries. Our findings are inconsistent with the traditional view that increasing tax revenues can be reduced budget deficits.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tax-spend hypothesis, spend-tax hypothesis, budget deficits, public expenditure, taxes

Kaynakça

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