Cost Analysis of Türkiye Onshore Wind Power Plants: Adilcevaz Region Case Study

Öz

The increase in the use of electrical energy also requires new investments. For this reason, it is inevitable to make many different new electrical energy generation system investments. In this context, having a realistic cost estimation provides many advantages to investors. In order to use this advantage, this study focuses on determining the realistic investment costs of WPP. In the study, an equation model is proposed for the first time for the estimation of new WPP investment costs by analyzing WPP investment costs in Turkey. Chaos Embedded Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization was preferred to determine the parameters in the proposed equation model. The MATLAB program was used to calculate the parameters in the proposed equation model. As a result of the analysis, the average error was calculated as 6.37%. The accuracy of the proposed equation model was tested with WPPs of different turbine types. As a result of the test, the validity of the proposed equation model is shown. As a result of the analysis, the average error was calculated as 6.77%. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed in the study and cost changes in different parameter values were expressed. According to the sensitivity analysis, it is seen that the change in the installed power value on the cost is more dominant than the change in rotor diameter and tower height. Finally, a case study was conducted in the Adilcevaz region. Costs were calculated for 14 different turbine models belonging to 4 different turbine manufacturers for the wind energy farm to be established in the determined region. As a result of these calculations, the turbine model suitable for unit cost was determined as Nordex N117-3/3.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Estimation of Wind Power Plant Energy Potential
• Chaos Embedded Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization
• Cost Analysis
• Sensitivity Analysis

Türkiye Karasal Rüzgar Enerji Santrallerin Maliyet Analizi: Adilcevaz Bölgesi Vaka Çalışması

Öz

Elektrik enerjisi kullanımının artması yeni yatırımları da gerektirmektedir. Bu nedenle bir çok farklı yeni elektrik enerjisi üretim sistemi yatırımlarının yapılması kaçınılmazdır. Bu bağlamda gerçekçi bir maliyet tahminine sahip olmak yatırımcılara birçok avantaj sağlamaktadır. Bu avantajı kullanmak için bu çalışmada RES’lerin gerçekçi yatırım maliyetlerinin belirlenmesine odaklanılmıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiye'deki RES yatırım maliyetleri analiz edilerek yeni RES yatırım maliyetlerinin tahmini için ilk kez bir denklem modeli önerilmiştir. Önerilen denklem modelinde parametreleri belirlemek için Kaos Gömülü Adaptif Parçacık Sürü Optimizasyonu tercih edilmiştir. Önerilen denklem modelindeki parametrelerin hesaplanması için MATLAB programı kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda ortalama hata %6,37 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Farklı türbin türlerindeki RES’ler ile önerilen denklem modelinin doğruluğu test edilmiştir. Test sonucunda önerilen denklem modelinin geçerliliği gösterilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda ortalama hata % 6,77 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca çalışmada duyarlılık analizi yapılmış ve farklı parametre değerlerindeki maliyet değişimleri ifade edilmiştir. Duyarlılık analizine göre maliyet üzerinde kurulu güç değerindeki değişimin, rotor çapı ve kule yüksekliğindeki değişime göre daha baskın olduğu görülmektedir. Son olarak Adilcevaz bölgesinde bir vaka çalışması yapılmıştır. Belirlenen bölgede kurulacak rüzgar enerji çiftliği için 4 farklı türbin markasına ait 14 farklı türbin modeli için maliyetler hesaplanmıştır. Bu hesaplamalar sonucunda birim maliyet olarak uygun türbin modeli Nordex N117-3/3 olarak belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rüzgar Enerjisi Potansiyeli
• Kaos Gömülü Adaptif Parçacık Sürü Optimizasyonu
• Maliyet Analizi
• Duyarlılık Analizi

Kaynakça

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