WIND POWER POTENTIAL ESTIMATION BY USING DIFFERENT STATISCAL DISTRIBUTIONS

Öz

Wind speed, accepted as a continuous random variable, is characterized by statistical distributions. Based on this characterization, wind power is estimated. The Weibull distribution is an accepted distribution in wind energy field. However, it is observed by means of scientific studies that the Weibull distribution does not model all wind types encountered in nature. In this study, the performances of the Weibull, Rayleigh, log-normal, Gamma, Generalized Gamma distributions and Nakagami, which is previously not used in energy field, are evaluated in terms of several criteria. The performances of the considered distributions have been reseached on wind speed measured in different regions of Turkey and it is observed that the Nagakami distribution shows better performance than the others. Thus, it is concluded that the Nakagami distribution can be used as an alternative distribution in wind energy field

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Wind speed, Nakagami distribution, wind speed distributions, model selection criteria

FARKLI OLASILIK YOĞUNLUK FONKSİYONLARI KULLANARAK RÜZGAR GÜCÜ POTANSİYELİNİN TAHMİNİ

Öz

Sürekli rassal değişken olarak kabul edilen rüzgâr hızı istatistiksel dağılımlarla karakterize edilir ve ortalama rüzgâr gücü tahminleri yapılır. Weibull dağılımı rüzgar enerjisi alanında kabul edilmiş dağılımdır. Ancak Weibull dağılımının doğa da karşılaşılan tüm rüzgar tiplerini modelleyemediği bilimsel çalışmalar yardımıyla bilinmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Weibull, Rayleigh, Log-normal, Gamma, Genelleşmiş Gamma dağılımları ve daha önce enerji alanında kullanılmamış olan Nakagami dağılımının performası çeşitli kriterler yardımıyla değerlendirilmiştir. Türkiye’nin farklı bölgelerinde ölçülen rüzgar hızı verileri üzerinde ele alınan dağılımların performansları araştırılmış, yapılan analizlerin sonucu olarak Nakagami dağılımının performasının yüksek olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Böylece, Nakagami dağılımının rüzgar enerjisi alanında alternatif bir dağılım olarak kullanılabileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rüzgar hızı, Nakagami dağılımı, rüzgar hızı dağılımları, model seçim kriterleri

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