Estimation of Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data Using Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

Öz

The most important factor determining the production potential of photovoltaic (PV) systems is the amount of solar radiation they are exposed to. Meteorological events occurring in the atmosphere have a significant effect on the solar radiation that the PV system will be exposed to.In this study, In this study; Estimation methodology based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) application for determining the amount of solar radiation depanding on meteorological measurements has been presented. Meteorological dataset served as an open access by IEEE PES and measured between 1 January 2015 and 30 May 2015 from the weather station of the Porto Higher Engineering Institute (ISEP) / Porto Polytechnic Institute have been used for analysis. ANN structure is modeled as the feed forward ANN topology using Matlab. Actual measurement and solar irradiance estimation values obtained with the presented approach have been compared and evaluated as statistically. In addition, analysis values have been reviewed and compaired with the global solar radiation calculated as the theoretica. Results show that ANN estimation based on meteorological data can be used with 99% accuracy in sunny and clear weather conditions and 96% in rainy and cloudy weather conditions in determining the amount of solar radiation. The presented approach can be used to determine the generation potential of existing and planned PV plants.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Solar Radiation
• Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
• Meteorological Measurement
• Daily Solar Radiation

Yapay Sinir Ağı (YSA) Kullanılarak Meteorolojik Verilere Dayalı Solar Radyasyon tahmini

Öz

Fotovoltaik(PV) sistemlerin üretim potansiyelini belirleyen en önemli faktör maruz kaldıkları solar radyasyon miktarıdır. Atmosferde meydana gelen meteorolojik olaylar PV sistemin maruz kalacağı solar radyasyon üzerinde önemli bir etki oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada; meteorolojik ölçümlere bağlı olarak solar radyasyon miktarının belirlenmesi için Yapay Sinir Ağı (YSA) uygulamasına dayalı tahmin metodolojisi sunulmuştur. Analizde, IEEE PES tarafından açık erişim olarak sunulan ve Porto Yüksek Mühendislik Enstitüsü (ISEP)/Porto Politeknik Enstitüsü’ ne ait hava istasyonundan 1 Ocak 2015-30 Mayıs 2015 tarihleri aralığında ölçülen meteorolojik veriler kullanılmıştır. YSA yapısı ileri beslemeli YSA topolojisi kullanılarak Matlab ortamında modellenmiştir. Sunulan yaklaşım ile elde edilen solar radyasyon tahmin değerleri, gerçek ölçüm sonuçları karşılaştırılmış ve istatistiksel olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Ayrıca analiz değerleri, teorik olarak hesaplanan global solar radyasyon modeli ile kıyaslanarak yorumlanmıştır. Sonuçlar Solar radyasyon miktarının belirlenmesinde meteorolojik verilere dayalı olarak gerçekleştirilen YSA tahminin güneşli ve açık hava koşullarında %99, yağışlı ve bulutlu hava koşullarında ise %96 doğrulukla kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir. Sunulan yaklaşım, mevcut ve kurulması planlanan PV tesislerin üretim potansiyelinin belirlenmesinde kullanılabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yapay Sinir Ağı (YSA)
• Solar Radyasyon
• Meteorolojik Ölçüm
• Günlük Solar Radyasyon

Kaynakça

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