PM10 Parametresinin Makine Öğrenmesi Algoritmalari ile Mekânsal Analizi, Kayseri İli Örneği

Öz

Hava kirliliğinin son yıllarda artışı ile alınacak olan erken önlemler dâhilinde hava kirliliği tahmininin yapılması insan ve çevre sağlığına verilebilecek zararın en aza indirilmesinde önemlidir. Bu çalışmada günlük ortalama hava kirliliği miktarının, önemli bir hava kirletici olan PM10 konsantrasyonu üzerinden tahminlenmesi ve hava kirliliğinin çevresel ve mekânsal modellenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Tahminleme modeli, Orta Anadolu Bölgesinde yer alan Kayseri ilinde bulunan 3 istasyondan alınan 2010-2018 yılları arasında ölçülen PM10 konsantrasyonu verileri kullanılarak makine öğrenmesi algoritmaları (kNN DVR, RF, ANN, Lineer Regresyon) ile eğitilmiştir. Kayseri’deki 3 istasyonun 2010-2018 yılları arasındaki PM10 konsantrasyon değerleri girdi olarak verilmiş ve 2019 yılına ait PM10 konsantrasyon değerleri tahmin edilmiştir. En iyi sonuçlar 3 istasyon için de Destek Vektör Regresyonu algoritması ile elde edilmiş olup Trafik bölgesi için R2:0.85, RMSE:17.57, MAE:10.17; Hürriyet bölgesi için R2:0.73, RMSE:34.91, MAE:24.61 ve OSB bölgesi için R2:0.82, RMSE:41.71, MAE:21.62 olarak tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca elde edilen tahmini konsantrasyon sonuçlarının mekânsal dağılımı (CBS) ve değişimi de analiz edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Makine öğrenmesi algoritmaları
• PM10
• destek vektör algoritması
• CBS
• mekânsal analiz

Spatial Analysis of PM10 Parameter by Machine Learning Algorithms, City of Kayseri

Öz

With the increase of air pollution in recent years, it is important to make an estimation of air pollution within the scope of early measures to be taken in minimizing the damage to human and environmental health. In this study, it is aimed to estimate the daily average amount of air pollution from the PM10 concentration, which is an important air pollutant, and to model the environmental and spatial air pollution. The prediction model was trained with machine learning algorithms (kNN DVR, RF, ANN, Linear Regression) using PM10 (particulate matter) concentration data measured between 2010-2018 from 3 stations in Kayseri, Central Anatolia. PM10 concentration values of 3 stations in Kayseri between 2010-2018 were given as input and PM10 concentration values for 2019 were estimated. The best results were obtained with Support Vector Regression algorithm for all three stations. For the Traffic region, R2: 0.85, RMSE: 17.57, MAE: 10.17; For Hurriyet region, R2: 0.73, RMSE: 34.91, MAE: 24.61 and for OSB region R2: 0.82, RMSE: 41.71, MAE: 21.62. Also, the spatial distribution and variation of the estimated concentration results were analyzed by the Geographical Information System (GIS).

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Machine learning algorithms
• PM10
• Support vector algorithm
• GIS
• spatial analysis

Kaynakça

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