Fotovoltaik ve Rüzgâr Enerjisi Sistem Kapasitelerinin Tekno-Ekonomik Analizle Belirlenmesi: İndirim Oranı ve Satış Tarifesinin Etkileri

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 63, 879 - 895, 20.09.2019

Onur Taylan

Öz

Artan enerji ihtiyacı ve azalan
fosil kaynaklı yakıtların azalması yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına olan
ilgiyi artırmıştır. Bu kaynaklardan fotovoltaik (PV) ve rüzgâr sistemleri ön
plana çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmada farklı indirim oranları ve şebeke tarife fiyatları
kullanılarak şebekeye bağlı hibrit PV/rüzgar sistem kapasiteleri en düşük birim
enerji maliyetini verecek şekilde optimizasyonla belirlenmiştir. Birim enerji
maliyetinin ve sistem kapasitelerinin yanı sıra, sistemin ürettiği fazla
enerji, talebin karşılanma oranı, net bugünkü değer (NPV), geri ödeme süresi ve
önlenen CO₂ salınım miktarları hesaplanmıştır. Çalışmada benzetimi
yapılan durumlardan en yüksek NPV değeri olan 4.3 milyon USD ve en düşük birim
enerji maliyeti olan 108,84 USD/MWh değerlerini %8 indirim oranında ve %40
oranındaki çift-yönlü tarifede bulunmuştur. Bu sonuçlara ideal 2572 kW PV ve
900 kW rüzgar türbin kapasitelerinde ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca çalışmanın sonuçları,
indirim oranının %4’ten %12 çıkmasının en düşük enerji maliyetini tutturabilmek
için PV ve türbin kapasitelerini %20’ye kadar düşürmek gerektiğini ve bu düşüşe
rağmen birim enerji maliyetinin ve NPV değerinin sırasıyla %12 ve %75
oranlarında düşebileceğini göstermiştir. Şebekeyle enerji transferinde
satış/alış oranının da %0’dan %40’a çıkmasının PV ve türbin kapasitelerini
sırasıyla %58 ve %50 artıracağını ve birim enerji maliyetlerini %5
azaltacağını, NPV değerini de %57’ye kadar artıracağını öngörülmüştür. Buna
göre, indirim oranının yüksek olduğu ülkelerde yenilenebilir enerji
yatırımlarının yaygınlaştırılması için indirim oranının düşük olduğu ülkelere
nazaran teşviklerin daha yüksek olması gerektiğini ve bu teşviğin yüksek oranlı
çift-yönlü tarifelerle yapılabileceği ortaya çıkmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hibrit Sistemler, Güneş Enerjisi, Kapasite Belirleme, Rüzgar Enerjisi, Tekno-ekonomik Analiz, Yenilenebilir Enerji

Sizing of Photovoltaic and Wind Energy Systems by Techno-Economic Analysis: Effects of Discount Rate and Feed-in-tariff

Öz

Increasing energy demand and depleting fossil fuels have increased the interest in renewable energy systems. Photovoltaic (PV) and wind systems are at the forefront of these systems. In this study, grid-connected hybrid PV/wind system capacities are optimized with the lowest cost of energy at different discount rates and feed-in-tariffs. In addition to the cost of energy and system capacities, produced excess energy, the ratio of the energy demand by the hybrid system, net present value (NPV), payback period and avoided CO2 emissions are calculated. The highest NPV value of 4.3 million USD and the lowest cost of energy of 108.84 USD/MWh are found at the discount rate of 8% and feed-in-tariff/grid tariff ratio of 40% using PV and wind capacities of 2572 and 900 kW, respectively. Moreover, the results show that when the discount rate increases from 4% to 12%, the PV and turbine capacities should be reduced by up to 20% to keep the lowest cost of energy cost. As a result of this capacity change, the cost of energy is increased by 12%, and NPV is decreased by 75%. Moreover, increasing the feed-in-tariff/grid tariff ratio from 0% to 40% increases the PV and turbine capacities by 58% and 50%, respectively, decreases the cost of energy by 5% and increases NPV by 57%. In conclusion, it is found that renewable energy incentives should be higher in countries with high discount rates than the ones with low discount rates to increase the renewable energy investments, and this incentive can be made with higher feed-in-tariffs.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hybrid Systems, Renewable Energy, Solar Energy, System Sizing, Techno-economic Analysis, Wind Energy

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