ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SYRIAN REFUGEES ON TURKISH ECONOMY

Öz

The aim of this study is to analyze such impacts on inflation, unemployment rate, economic development, and housing demand as from 2011. For this reason, the subject of this research is defined as “The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Economy”. Within this frame, “Is migration an economic and demographic solution for the ageing population and work force due to sector specific supply deficiencies?”, or “Could migration be deemed as a risk due to additional burden on social savings and public finance, increase of general price levels, and increased unemployment?” have been determined as the primary problems of this paper. We researched and analyzed the number of Syrian refugees, economic growth, unemployment rate, housing demand, and overall level of prices in between 2012 – 2019 based on the quarterly data. Total statistical information, relevant to Syrian refugees, was obtained from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and rest of the data was obtained from Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). In order to make the analysis of Syrian refugees with respect to the Turkish Economy, we primarily used the parameter of time. Hence, the research was performed both for short and long terms. And we used Johansen cointegration, Granger causality, VAR (Vector Autoregressive Model), and Impulse-Response function models. Based on the results obtained, there are no negative impacts on the Turkish economy in the short term, yet negative impacts will be faced in the long term. As a result, the increase of the number of refugees is significantly affecting the unemployment rate, and it is actually creating a horizontal effect on inflation and housing demand. We finalized the research by the results of the analyses performed as well as the contribution of political designs’ and key feedbacks’ projections.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Syria
• Refugee
• Migration
• Immigrant
• Economic Impacts

SURİYE MÜLTECİ GÖÇÜNÜN TÜRKİYE’YE EKONOMİK ETKİLERİ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Suriye göçmenlerinin 2011 yılından itibaren günümüze kadar Türkiye’ye göç etmelerinin enflasyon, işsizlik, büyüme ve konut talebi üzerine etkisinin olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Bu nedenle araştırmanın konusu “Suriyeli Mültecilerin Türkiye Ekonomisine Etkisi” olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu çerçevede araştırmanın temel problemi: “Göç, birçok ülkede yaşlanan nüfus ve işgücü arzındaki sektörel kıtlıklar ile ilgili ekonomik ve demografik sorunlara bir çözüm mü; yoksa göçmenlerin sosyal harcamalara ek bir baskı uygulamasıyla kamu mali dengesine, talep artışıyla fiyatlar genel düzeyine, işgücü arzının arttırmasıyla işsizliğe yol açması nedeniyle bir risk olarak görülebilir mi?” şeklindedir. Çalışmada Suriyeli göçmen miktarı, ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik oranı, konut talebi ve fiyatlar genel düzeyine ilişkin 2012-2019 yılları arasında üçer aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Suriye göçmenlerine ait istatistikler Birleşmiş Milletler Mülteci Örgütü veri tabanından (UNHCR) elde edilmiştir. Diğer bütün değişkenler Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu veri tabanından (TÜİK) sağlanmıştır. Suriyeli göçmenlerin Türkiye Ekonomisi üzerine etkisinin analizi için göçün kısa ve uzun dönem etkilerine ayrı ayrı bakılmıştır. Johansen eşbütünleşme, Granger nedensellik, VAR ve Etki-Tepki fonksiyonları modellenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, Suriyeli göçmenlerin kısa dönemde ele alınan değişkenler üzerinde Türkiye ekonomisini etkilemediği, ancak etkinin uzun dönemde ortaya çıktığı görülmektedir. Buna göre göçmen sayısındaki artış; işsizliği güçlü bir şekilde artırırken enflasyon ve konut talebi üzerinde artış yönünde yatay bir seyre neden olmaktadır. Ekonomik büyüme üzerinde ise dönemsel artış ve azalışlara yol açmaktadır. Çalışma, elde edilen analiz sonuçları üzerinden Suriye Mülteci Göçünün önümüzdeki yıllardaki projeksiyonuna ışık tutabilecek politik tasarım ve önerilerle sonlandırılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Suriye
• Mülteci
• Göç
• Göçmen
• Ekonomik Etkiler

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