BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

The var estımate of the effects of foreıgn dırect ınvestment ınflow to turkey on Turkey's export performance

Yıl 2011, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3, 39 - 63, 01.04.2011

Öz

In this article the relationship between FDI inflow to Turkey and Turkey's export performance is analyzed. The lack of studies in Turkey about this issue constitutes the main motivation behind this study. The effect of FDI on exports was analyzed through the Granger Causality Test (GCT) (for the period of 1992:1-2009:7) and the VAR Analyses. As a result of the GCT, a unidirectional causality from FDI to exports was found. According to the results of export variance decomposition, it is observed that exports are under the influence of exports' own lagged values. FDI plays 6 percent role in export changes. This finding corresponds to the finding that FDI causes exports. 74 percent of FDI changes arises from FDI, 10 percent from Interest Rates, and 8 percent from Exchange Rate. While Openness Ratio's explanatory level for FDI is 2 percent, other variables are not significant in explaining FDI changes. According to these results, interest rates in the country, exchange rates, and openness ratio are main incentives behind FDI.

Kaynakça

  • Alguacil, T, Cuadros, A. and Orts, V. (2002). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Domestic Performance in Mexico: A Causality Analysis. Economics Letters, v. 77: 371-376.
  • Bozkurt, H. (2007). Zaman Serileri Analizi. Bursa: Ekin Yayınevi.
  • Chou, T.C. (1988). American and Japanese Direct Foreign Investment in Taiwan: A Comparative Study. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 29 (2): 165- 179.
  • Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49: 1057-1072.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. Newyork: Iowa State University, John Wiley&Sons Inc.
  • Gu, W., Awokuse, T.O. and Yuan, Y. (2008). The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment to China’s Export Performance: Evidence from Disaggregated Sectors. Paper prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, July, Orlando, FL.
  • Gunawardana, P.J. and Sharma, K. (2009). The Impact of Inward FDI, labour Productivitiy and Industry Assistance on Manufacturing Exports of Australia. Victoria University, Working Paper Series School of Economics and Finance, Australia: September, WP2009.
  • Hood, N. and Young, S. (1979). The Economics of Multinational Enterprise. June, London: Longman.
  • Jun, K.W. and Singh, H. (1996). The Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries. Transnational Corporations, 5 (2): 67-105.
  • Karagöz, M. ve Karagöz, K. (2006). Türk Ekonomisinde İhracat ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım İlişkisi: Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi. Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3 (1): 117-126.
  • Katos, A., Lawler, K. and Seddighi, H. (2000). Econometrics: A Practical Approach. December, London: Taylor and Francis Group, Routledge.
  • Khan, K. and Leng, K. (1997). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Economic Growth. Singapore Economic Review , 42 (2): 40-60.
  • Leichenko, R. M. and Erickson, R. A. (1997). Foreign Direct Investment and State Export Performance. Journal of Regional Science, 37 (2): 307-329.
  • Lin, A.-L. (1995). Trade Effects of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence For Taiwan with Four ASEAN Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 131 (4): 737-747.
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Newyork: Springer-Verlag, Berlin Hiedelberg.
  • Menon, J. (2000). How open is Malaysia? An Analysis of Trade Capital and Labour Flows. The World Economy, 23 (2): 235-255.
  • Özgen, F.B. ve Güloğlu, B. (2004). Türkiye’de İç Borçların İktisadi Etkilerinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi. METU Studies in Development, 31: 93-114.
  • Pacheco-Lopez, P. (2005). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Imports in Mexico. The World Economy, 28 (8): 1157-1172.
  • Pesaran H.H., and Shin, Y.,(1998). Generalized Impulse Response Analysis In Linear Multivariate Models. Economics Letters, 58: 17-29
  • Seo, J. S. (1997). Dynamics Of Comparative Advantage and Foreign Direct Investment in Korea And Taiwan: An Analysis Of The Relationship Between FDI And Trade, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of New South Wales, Australia.
  • Samsu, S.H., Derus, A.M., Ooi, A-Y and Ghazali, M.F. (2008). Causal Links Between Foreign Direct Invetsmet and Exports: Evidence from Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Management. 3 (12): 177-183.
  • Sims, C.A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, (48): 1- 48.
  • Stock , J.H. and Watson, M.W. (2001). Vector Autoregressions. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25 (4): 101-115.
  • Temiz, D. ve Gökmen, A. (2009). Foreign Direct Investment and Export in Turkey: The Period of 1991-2008, EconAnadolu 2009: Anadolu Uluslararası İktisat Kongresi, 17-19 Haziran 2009, Eskişehir, Türkiye (econ.anadolu.edu.tr/fullpapers/ Temiz_Gokmen_econanadolu2009.pdf) (Erişim Tarihi: 31.03.2009).
  • Xuan, N.T. ve Xing, Y. (2006). Foreign Direct Investment and Exports: the Experiences of Vietnam, GSIR (Graduate School of International Relations) Working Papers, Economic Development &Policy Series, EDP06-11, Japan.
  • Vogelvang, B. (2003). Econometrics: Theory and Applicatioans with Eviews, England: Pearson Education Limited.
  • Zhang, K.H. and Song, S. (2000). Promoting exports: the role of inward FDI in China. China Economic Review, 11: 385-396.
  • Zhang, Q. and Felmingham, B. (2001). The Relationship Between Inward Direct Foreign Investment and China’s Provincial Export Trade. China Economic Review, 12: 82-99.
  • Zhang, K.H. (2005). How Does FDI Affect a Host Country’s Export Performance? The Case of China, Paper presented to International conference of WTO, China and the Asian Economies, 25-26 June, 3. Xi’an, China.

Türkiye'ye gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımların türkiye'nin ihracat performansına etkilerinin var yöntemi ile tahmini

Yıl 2011, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3, 39 - 63, 01.04.2011

Öz

Makalede, Türkiye'ye gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile Türkiye'nin ihracat performansı arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Bu konuda Türkiye ile ilgili çalışmaların azlığı, bu makalenin temel motivasyonunu oluşturmaktadır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ihracat üzerindeki etkisi (1992:1-2009:7 dönemi için) Granger Nedensellik Analizi ve VAR (vektör otoregresif) Analizi yardımıyla araştırılmaktadır. Nedensellik Analizi sonucunda Türkiye'de, doğrudan yabancı yatırımdan, ihracata doğru tek yönlü bir nedenselliğe rastlanmıştır. İhracatın varyans ayrıştırması sonuçlarında ihracatın çoğunlukla kendi gecikmeli değerlerinin etkisi altında kaldığı görülmektedir. İhracatta meydana gelen değişmelerde doğrudan yabancı yatırım % 6'lık bir rol oynamaktadır. Bu bulgu, doğrudan yabancı yatırımın, ihracatın nedeni olduğu yönündeki bulgu ile de örtüşmektedir. Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım'da meydana gelen değişmenin % 74'ü kendinden, % 10'u Faiz Oranı'ndan, % 8'i Döviz Kuru'ndan kaynaklanmaktadır. Dışa Açıklık Oranı'nın Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım'ı açıklama derecesi % 2 iken, diğer değişkenlerin Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım'da ortaya çıkan değişimleri açıklamada önemsiz kaldıkları görülmektedir. Buna göre, yabancı yatırımcıları motive eden ülkedeki faiz oranı, döviz kuru ve dışa açıklık oranının derecesi olmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Alguacil, T, Cuadros, A. and Orts, V. (2002). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Domestic Performance in Mexico: A Causality Analysis. Economics Letters, v. 77: 371-376.
  • Bozkurt, H. (2007). Zaman Serileri Analizi. Bursa: Ekin Yayınevi.
  • Chou, T.C. (1988). American and Japanese Direct Foreign Investment in Taiwan: A Comparative Study. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 29 (2): 165- 179.
  • Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49: 1057-1072.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. Newyork: Iowa State University, John Wiley&Sons Inc.
  • Gu, W., Awokuse, T.O. and Yuan, Y. (2008). The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment to China’s Export Performance: Evidence from Disaggregated Sectors. Paper prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, July, Orlando, FL.
  • Gunawardana, P.J. and Sharma, K. (2009). The Impact of Inward FDI, labour Productivitiy and Industry Assistance on Manufacturing Exports of Australia. Victoria University, Working Paper Series School of Economics and Finance, Australia: September, WP2009.
  • Hood, N. and Young, S. (1979). The Economics of Multinational Enterprise. June, London: Longman.
  • Jun, K.W. and Singh, H. (1996). The Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries. Transnational Corporations, 5 (2): 67-105.
  • Karagöz, M. ve Karagöz, K. (2006). Türk Ekonomisinde İhracat ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım İlişkisi: Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi. Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3 (1): 117-126.
  • Katos, A., Lawler, K. and Seddighi, H. (2000). Econometrics: A Practical Approach. December, London: Taylor and Francis Group, Routledge.
  • Khan, K. and Leng, K. (1997). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Economic Growth. Singapore Economic Review , 42 (2): 40-60.
  • Leichenko, R. M. and Erickson, R. A. (1997). Foreign Direct Investment and State Export Performance. Journal of Regional Science, 37 (2): 307-329.
  • Lin, A.-L. (1995). Trade Effects of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence For Taiwan with Four ASEAN Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 131 (4): 737-747.
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Newyork: Springer-Verlag, Berlin Hiedelberg.
  • Menon, J. (2000). How open is Malaysia? An Analysis of Trade Capital and Labour Flows. The World Economy, 23 (2): 235-255.
  • Özgen, F.B. ve Güloğlu, B. (2004). Türkiye’de İç Borçların İktisadi Etkilerinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi. METU Studies in Development, 31: 93-114.
  • Pacheco-Lopez, P. (2005). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Imports in Mexico. The World Economy, 28 (8): 1157-1172.
  • Pesaran H.H., and Shin, Y.,(1998). Generalized Impulse Response Analysis In Linear Multivariate Models. Economics Letters, 58: 17-29
  • Seo, J. S. (1997). Dynamics Of Comparative Advantage and Foreign Direct Investment in Korea And Taiwan: An Analysis Of The Relationship Between FDI And Trade, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of New South Wales, Australia.
  • Samsu, S.H., Derus, A.M., Ooi, A-Y and Ghazali, M.F. (2008). Causal Links Between Foreign Direct Invetsmet and Exports: Evidence from Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Management. 3 (12): 177-183.
  • Sims, C.A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, (48): 1- 48.
  • Stock , J.H. and Watson, M.W. (2001). Vector Autoregressions. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25 (4): 101-115.
  • Temiz, D. ve Gökmen, A. (2009). Foreign Direct Investment and Export in Turkey: The Period of 1991-2008, EconAnadolu 2009: Anadolu Uluslararası İktisat Kongresi, 17-19 Haziran 2009, Eskişehir, Türkiye (econ.anadolu.edu.tr/fullpapers/ Temiz_Gokmen_econanadolu2009.pdf) (Erişim Tarihi: 31.03.2009).
  • Xuan, N.T. ve Xing, Y. (2006). Foreign Direct Investment and Exports: the Experiences of Vietnam, GSIR (Graduate School of International Relations) Working Papers, Economic Development &Policy Series, EDP06-11, Japan.
  • Vogelvang, B. (2003). Econometrics: Theory and Applicatioans with Eviews, England: Pearson Education Limited.
  • Zhang, K.H. and Song, S. (2000). Promoting exports: the role of inward FDI in China. China Economic Review, 11: 385-396.
  • Zhang, Q. and Felmingham, B. (2001). The Relationship Between Inward Direct Foreign Investment and China’s Provincial Export Trade. China Economic Review, 12: 82-99.
  • Zhang, K.H. (2005). How Does FDI Affect a Host Country’s Export Performance? The Case of China, Paper presented to International conference of WTO, China and the Asian Economies, 25-26 June, 3. Xi’an, China.
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

E. Yasemin Bozdağlıoğlu Bu kişi benim

Ömer Özpınar Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Nisan 2011
Gönderilme Tarihi 16 Ağustos 2014
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2011 Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Bozdağlıoğlu, E. Y., & Özpınar, Ö. (2011). Türkiye’ye gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımların türkiye’nin ihracat performansına etkilerinin var yöntemi ile tahmini. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(3), 39-63.