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ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SYRIAN REFUGEES ON TURKISH ECONOMY

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 3, 1151 - 1171, 30.09.2021
https://doi.org/10.16953/deusosbil.932430

Öz

The aim of this study is to analyze such impacts on inflation, unemployment rate, economic development, and housing demand as from 2011. For this reason, the subject of this research is defined as “The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Economy”. Within this frame, “Is migration an economic and demographic solution for the ageing population and work force due to sector specific supply deficiencies?”, or “Could migration be deemed as a risk due to additional burden on social savings and public finance, increase of general price levels, and increased unemployment?” have been determined as the primary problems of this paper.
We researched and analyzed the number of Syrian refugees, economic growth, unemployment rate, housing demand, and overall level of prices in between 2012 – 2019 based on the quarterly data. Total statistical information, relevant to Syrian refugees, was obtained from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and rest of the data was obtained from Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). In order to make the analysis of Syrian refugees with respect to the Turkish Economy, we primarily used the parameter of time. Hence, the research was performed both for short and long terms. And we used Johansen cointegration, Granger causality, VAR (Vector Autoregressive Model), and Impulse-Response function models. Based on the results obtained, there are no negative impacts on the Turkish economy in the short term, yet negative impacts will be faced in the long term. As a result, the increase of the number of refugees is significantly affecting the unemployment rate, and it is actually creating a horizontal effect on inflation and housing demand. We finalized the research by the results of the analyses performed as well as the contribution of political designs’ and key feedbacks’ projections.

Kaynakça

  • AFAD (2017). Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency Demographic Outlook of Syrians in Turkey.. Field Research on Living Conditions and Future Expectations. Ankara.
  • Akgündüz, Y. E., Marcel, V. B. and Wolter, H. (2015). The Impact of Refugee Crises on Host Labor Markets: The Case of the Syrian Refugee Crisis. Disscussion Paper. No. 8841. Bonn: IZA.
  • Altonji, J. G. and Card, D. (1991). The Effects of Immigration on the Labor Market Outcomes of Lessskilled Natives. In Immigration, trade and the labor market (pp. 201-234). University of Chicago Press.
  • Bahçekapılı, C. & B. Çetin (2015), “The Impacts of Forced Migration on Regional Economies: The Case of Syrian Refugees in Turkey”, International Business Research, 8 (9), 1-15.
  • Balkan, B. and Tumen, S., 2016. Immigration and prices: quasi-experimental evidence from Syrian refugees in Turkey. J. Popul. Econ. 29, 657–686.
  • Box, G. E., Jenkins, G. M. and Reinsel, G. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control Holden-day San Francisco. BoxTime Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control Holden Day.
  • Braun, S. & T.O. Mahmoud (2014), “The Employment Effects of Immigration: Evidence from the Mass Arrival of German Expellees in Post-War Germany”, The Journal of Economic History, 74(1), 69-108.
  • Calderon, V.V. & A.M. Ibanez (2009), “Labour Market Effects of Migration - Related Supply Shocks: Evidence from Internally Displaced Populations in Colombia”, Research Working Paper, No. 14, MICROCON.
  • Ceritoğlu, E., Gurcihan, H. B., Yunculer, H. T. and Tumen, S. (2015). The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives’ Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design. IZA Journal of Labor Policy. 6: 5. Çetin, V. & Akıllı, H. S., (2020), “Rational and Normative Policy Compliance: Labor Market Integration of Syrians and the Factors Affecting the Intentions of Employers to Employ Registered Foreign Workers”, Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, 5(1): 43-65, DOI: 10.30784/epfad.693852
  • Del Carpio, X.V. & M.C. Wagner (2015), “The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Labor Market”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 7402, Washington DC, United States.
  • El-Bahlawan, E. and Al-Maadeed, A. (2018). The Economic Impact of Immigration on Host Countries: The Case of Saudi Arabia. Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies. Proceedings of Middle East Economic Association. 20(1): 69-84.
  • Erdoğan, M. Murat., (2019), Syrian Refugees in Turkey, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, September 2019, https://www.kas.de/documents/283907/7339115/T%C3%BCrkiye%27deki+Suriyeliler.pdf/acaf9d37-7035-f37c-4982-c4b18f9b9c8e?version=1.0&t=1571303334464, Date of access: 29.04.2020.
  • Esen, O. and Binatlı, A. O. (2017). The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Economy: Regional Labour Market Effects. Social Sciences. 6(129): 1-12.
  • Feridun, M. (2005). Investigating the Economic Impact of Immigration on the Host Country: the Case of Norway. Prague Economic Papers. 4: 350-362.
  • GAV. (2018). Migration Research Foundation 2018 World Migration Report, Information Note. http://gocvakfi.org/2018-dunya-goc-raporu/ Date of access: March 2019.
  • Gaziantep Chamber of Industry (2017). Report of Syrians and Turkey. It was carried out by Gaziantep Chamber of Industry in 2017.
  • GIGM, (Directorate General of Migration Management) (2019). Republic Of Turkey Ministry of Interior Directorate General of Migration Management, International Protection, http://www.goc.gov.tr/icerik3/gecici-koruma_409_546_552, (March 2019).
  • Gross, D. M. (1999). Three Million Foreigners, Three Million Unemployed? Immigration and the French Labor Market. (No. 99-124). International Monetary Fund.
  • https://www.cnnturk.com/ekonomi/bakan-pekcan-15-bin-159-suriyeli-sirket-var, Date of access: 29.04.2020.
  • IOM (2018). International Organization for Migration, Flow Monitoring Europe, http://germany.iom.int/en/reaggarp-en, Date of access:10.08.2019.
  • IOM (2019). International Organization for Migration, Flow Monitoring Europe, https://migration.iom.int/europe?type=arrivals, Date of access:15.05.2019.
  • IOM. (2018). International Organization for Migration. World Migration Report 2018. Cenevre, Swiss.
  • İçduygu, A. and Damla B. A. (2012). Irregular Migration in Turkey, IOM, September, Ankara.
  • Kancs, D. A. and Lecca, P. (2018). Long‐term social, economic and fiscal effects of immigration into the EU: The role of the integration policy. The World Economy, 41(10), 2599-2630.
  • Marr, W. L. and Siklos, P. L. (1994). The Link between Immigration and Unemployment in Canada. Journal of Policy Modeling. 16(1): 1-25.
  • Maystadt, J.F. & P. Verwimp (2014), “Winners and Losers among a Refugee-Hosting Population”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 62(4), 769-809.
  • ORSAM. (2015). Center For Middle Eastern Strategic Studies, Effects Of Syrian Refugees In Turkey, Report No: 195.
  • Özdemir, E. (2017). Effects of Syrian Refugees Crisis on Turkey, Journal of Crises and Political Research, 1(3): 114-140.
  • Peri, G. (2009), The Effect Of Immigration On Productivity: Evidence From Us States, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 15507, http://www.nber.org/papers/w15507, November 2009.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing For a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika. 75(2): 335-346.
  • Pirinççi, F. (2018). Policies of Syria’s Neighboring Countries toward the Syrian Refugees, TESAM Academy Journal. 5(2): 39-60.
  • President Erdoğan: "We Spent 37 Billion Dollars for Syrians" (27.06.2019) http://www.kamubulteni.com/turkiye/cumhurbaskanierdogan-suriyeliler-icin-37-milyar-dolar-harcadik-h11496.html, Date of access: 29.04.2020.
  • TEPAV. (2019). The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey, How and How Much Are Syrians in the News? Data Science Approach, TEPAV publications, Evaluation Note. February 2019-N201902.
  • The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2001). Refugee Protection: A Guide to International Refugee Law (Handbook for Parliamentarians), Issue: 2.
  • The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2013). Handbook And Guidelines On Procedures And Criteria For Determining Refugee Status, Revised Translation, February 2013.
  • Tümen, S. (2016). The Economic Impact of Syrian Refugees on Host Countries: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Turkey. The American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings. 106: 456-60.
  • United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). (2019a). Total Persons of Concern by Country of Asylum. https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria, Date of access: August 2019.
  • United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). (2019b). Education. https://www.unhcr.org/tr/egitim, Date of access: August 2019.
  • Ünay, S., Gür, N. and Dilek, Ş. (2016). World Humanitarian Summit in governance and the Global Humanitarian Turkey, SETA Perspective. Number:129.
  • Vural, B . (2020). Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy. Sosyoekonomi Journal, 28 (43) , 49-64. DOI: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03
  • Whitaker, B.E. (2002), “Refugees in Western Tanzania: The Distribution of Burdens and Benefits among Local Hosts”, Journal of Refugee Studies, 15(4), 339-358.
  • Withers, G. and Pope, D. (1985). Immigration and Unemployment. Economic Record. 61(2): 554-564. Zetter, R. (2012), Guidelines for Assessing the Impacts and Costs of Forced Displacement, World Bank, Washington DC, United States.

SURİYE MÜLTECİ GÖÇÜNÜN TÜRKİYE’YE EKONOMİK ETKİLERİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 3, 1151 - 1171, 30.09.2021
https://doi.org/10.16953/deusosbil.932430

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Suriye göçmenlerinin 2011 yılından itibaren günümüze kadar Türkiye’ye göç etmelerinin enflasyon, işsizlik, büyüme ve konut talebi üzerine etkisinin olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Bu nedenle araştırmanın konusu “Suriyeli Mültecilerin Türkiye Ekonomisine Etkisi” olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu çerçevede araştırmanın temel problemi: “Göç, birçok ülkede yaşlanan nüfus ve işgücü arzındaki sektörel kıtlıklar ile ilgili ekonomik ve demografik sorunlara bir çözüm mü; yoksa göçmenlerin sosyal harcamalara ek bir baskı uygulamasıyla kamu mali dengesine, talep artışıyla fiyatlar genel düzeyine, işgücü arzının arttırmasıyla işsizliğe yol açması nedeniyle bir risk olarak görülebilir mi?” şeklindedir.
Çalışmada Suriyeli göçmen miktarı, ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik oranı, konut talebi ve fiyatlar genel düzeyine ilişkin 2012-2019 yılları arasında üçer aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Suriye göçmenlerine ait istatistikler Birleşmiş Milletler Mülteci Örgütü veri tabanından (UNHCR) elde edilmiştir. Diğer bütün değişkenler Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu veri tabanından (TÜİK) sağlanmıştır. Suriyeli göçmenlerin Türkiye Ekonomisi üzerine etkisinin analizi için göçün kısa ve uzun dönem etkilerine ayrı ayrı bakılmıştır. Johansen eşbütünleşme, Granger nedensellik, VAR ve Etki-Tepki fonksiyonları modellenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, Suriyeli göçmenlerin kısa dönemde ele alınan değişkenler üzerinde Türkiye ekonomisini etkilemediği, ancak etkinin uzun dönemde ortaya çıktığı görülmektedir. Buna göre göçmen sayısındaki artış; işsizliği güçlü bir şekilde artırırken enflasyon ve konut talebi üzerinde artış yönünde yatay bir seyre neden olmaktadır. Ekonomik büyüme üzerinde ise dönemsel artış ve azalışlara yol açmaktadır. Çalışma, elde edilen analiz sonuçları üzerinden Suriye Mülteci Göçünün önümüzdeki yıllardaki projeksiyonuna ışık tutabilecek politik tasarım ve önerilerle sonlandırılmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • AFAD (2017). Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency Demographic Outlook of Syrians in Turkey.. Field Research on Living Conditions and Future Expectations. Ankara.
  • Akgündüz, Y. E., Marcel, V. B. and Wolter, H. (2015). The Impact of Refugee Crises on Host Labor Markets: The Case of the Syrian Refugee Crisis. Disscussion Paper. No. 8841. Bonn: IZA.
  • Altonji, J. G. and Card, D. (1991). The Effects of Immigration on the Labor Market Outcomes of Lessskilled Natives. In Immigration, trade and the labor market (pp. 201-234). University of Chicago Press.
  • Bahçekapılı, C. & B. Çetin (2015), “The Impacts of Forced Migration on Regional Economies: The Case of Syrian Refugees in Turkey”, International Business Research, 8 (9), 1-15.
  • Balkan, B. and Tumen, S., 2016. Immigration and prices: quasi-experimental evidence from Syrian refugees in Turkey. J. Popul. Econ. 29, 657–686.
  • Box, G. E., Jenkins, G. M. and Reinsel, G. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control Holden-day San Francisco. BoxTime Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control Holden Day.
  • Braun, S. & T.O. Mahmoud (2014), “The Employment Effects of Immigration: Evidence from the Mass Arrival of German Expellees in Post-War Germany”, The Journal of Economic History, 74(1), 69-108.
  • Calderon, V.V. & A.M. Ibanez (2009), “Labour Market Effects of Migration - Related Supply Shocks: Evidence from Internally Displaced Populations in Colombia”, Research Working Paper, No. 14, MICROCON.
  • Ceritoğlu, E., Gurcihan, H. B., Yunculer, H. T. and Tumen, S. (2015). The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives’ Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design. IZA Journal of Labor Policy. 6: 5. Çetin, V. & Akıllı, H. S., (2020), “Rational and Normative Policy Compliance: Labor Market Integration of Syrians and the Factors Affecting the Intentions of Employers to Employ Registered Foreign Workers”, Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, 5(1): 43-65, DOI: 10.30784/epfad.693852
  • Del Carpio, X.V. & M.C. Wagner (2015), “The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Labor Market”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 7402, Washington DC, United States.
  • El-Bahlawan, E. and Al-Maadeed, A. (2018). The Economic Impact of Immigration on Host Countries: The Case of Saudi Arabia. Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies. Proceedings of Middle East Economic Association. 20(1): 69-84.
  • Erdoğan, M. Murat., (2019), Syrian Refugees in Turkey, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, September 2019, https://www.kas.de/documents/283907/7339115/T%C3%BCrkiye%27deki+Suriyeliler.pdf/acaf9d37-7035-f37c-4982-c4b18f9b9c8e?version=1.0&t=1571303334464, Date of access: 29.04.2020.
  • Esen, O. and Binatlı, A. O. (2017). The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Economy: Regional Labour Market Effects. Social Sciences. 6(129): 1-12.
  • Feridun, M. (2005). Investigating the Economic Impact of Immigration on the Host Country: the Case of Norway. Prague Economic Papers. 4: 350-362.
  • GAV. (2018). Migration Research Foundation 2018 World Migration Report, Information Note. http://gocvakfi.org/2018-dunya-goc-raporu/ Date of access: March 2019.
  • Gaziantep Chamber of Industry (2017). Report of Syrians and Turkey. It was carried out by Gaziantep Chamber of Industry in 2017.
  • GIGM, (Directorate General of Migration Management) (2019). Republic Of Turkey Ministry of Interior Directorate General of Migration Management, International Protection, http://www.goc.gov.tr/icerik3/gecici-koruma_409_546_552, (March 2019).
  • Gross, D. M. (1999). Three Million Foreigners, Three Million Unemployed? Immigration and the French Labor Market. (No. 99-124). International Monetary Fund.
  • https://www.cnnturk.com/ekonomi/bakan-pekcan-15-bin-159-suriyeli-sirket-var, Date of access: 29.04.2020.
  • IOM (2018). International Organization for Migration, Flow Monitoring Europe, http://germany.iom.int/en/reaggarp-en, Date of access:10.08.2019.
  • IOM (2019). International Organization for Migration, Flow Monitoring Europe, https://migration.iom.int/europe?type=arrivals, Date of access:15.05.2019.
  • IOM. (2018). International Organization for Migration. World Migration Report 2018. Cenevre, Swiss.
  • İçduygu, A. and Damla B. A. (2012). Irregular Migration in Turkey, IOM, September, Ankara.
  • Kancs, D. A. and Lecca, P. (2018). Long‐term social, economic and fiscal effects of immigration into the EU: The role of the integration policy. The World Economy, 41(10), 2599-2630.
  • Marr, W. L. and Siklos, P. L. (1994). The Link between Immigration and Unemployment in Canada. Journal of Policy Modeling. 16(1): 1-25.
  • Maystadt, J.F. & P. Verwimp (2014), “Winners and Losers among a Refugee-Hosting Population”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 62(4), 769-809.
  • ORSAM. (2015). Center For Middle Eastern Strategic Studies, Effects Of Syrian Refugees In Turkey, Report No: 195.
  • Özdemir, E. (2017). Effects of Syrian Refugees Crisis on Turkey, Journal of Crises and Political Research, 1(3): 114-140.
  • Peri, G. (2009), The Effect Of Immigration On Productivity: Evidence From Us States, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 15507, http://www.nber.org/papers/w15507, November 2009.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing For a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika. 75(2): 335-346.
  • Pirinççi, F. (2018). Policies of Syria’s Neighboring Countries toward the Syrian Refugees, TESAM Academy Journal. 5(2): 39-60.
  • President Erdoğan: "We Spent 37 Billion Dollars for Syrians" (27.06.2019) http://www.kamubulteni.com/turkiye/cumhurbaskanierdogan-suriyeliler-icin-37-milyar-dolar-harcadik-h11496.html, Date of access: 29.04.2020.
  • TEPAV. (2019). The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey, How and How Much Are Syrians in the News? Data Science Approach, TEPAV publications, Evaluation Note. February 2019-N201902.
  • The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2001). Refugee Protection: A Guide to International Refugee Law (Handbook for Parliamentarians), Issue: 2.
  • The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2013). Handbook And Guidelines On Procedures And Criteria For Determining Refugee Status, Revised Translation, February 2013.
  • Tümen, S. (2016). The Economic Impact of Syrian Refugees on Host Countries: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Turkey. The American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings. 106: 456-60.
  • United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). (2019a). Total Persons of Concern by Country of Asylum. https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria, Date of access: August 2019.
  • United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). (2019b). Education. https://www.unhcr.org/tr/egitim, Date of access: August 2019.
  • Ünay, S., Gür, N. and Dilek, Ş. (2016). World Humanitarian Summit in governance and the Global Humanitarian Turkey, SETA Perspective. Number:129.
  • Vural, B . (2020). Impact of Syrian Forced Migration on Turkish Economy. Sosyoekonomi Journal, 28 (43) , 49-64. DOI: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.03
  • Whitaker, B.E. (2002), “Refugees in Western Tanzania: The Distribution of Burdens and Benefits among Local Hosts”, Journal of Refugee Studies, 15(4), 339-358.
  • Withers, G. and Pope, D. (1985). Immigration and Unemployment. Economic Record. 61(2): 554-564. Zetter, R. (2012), Guidelines for Assessing the Impacts and Costs of Forced Displacement, World Bank, Washington DC, United States.
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Oya Kaya Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-7668-9268

Üzeyir Aydın 0000-0003-2777-6450

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Eylül 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 4 Mayıs 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 23 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Kaya, O., & Aydın, Ü. (2021). ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SYRIAN REFUGEES ON TURKISH ECONOMY. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 23(3), 1151-1171. https://doi.org/10.16953/deusosbil.932430