ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ, KENTLEŞME VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Yıl 2019, Sayı: 22, 315 - 324, 01.06.2019

Mehmet Dağ

Öz

Bu araştırma, 34 OECD ülkesinde, Panel VAR analizini uygulayarak enerji tüketimi-kentleşme-büyüme ilişkisi hakkında 1996-2015 dönemi için yeni ampirik kanıt sunma amacını taşımaktadır. İki değişkenli Panel VAR analizi modeli, enerji tüketiminin EC GSYH'ye kişi başına düşen reel GSYİH iki yönlü pozitif bir tepkisini ortaya koymaktadır. Dahası, EC'nin UR'ye kentsel toplam nüfusa olumlu tepki verdiği bulunmuştur. Üç değişkenli VAR modeli, GSYİH'nın enerji tüketimi üzerindeki önemli olumlu etkisini göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak, enerji tüketiminin kentleşme üzerinde olumsuz bir etkisi olduğu görülmektedir. Kentleşmenin, enerji tüketiminin yanı sıra ekonomik büyüme üzerinde de olumlu bir etkisi olduğu bulunmuştur. Etki tepki fonksiyonları IRF , kentleşmenin, enerji tüketimine karşı, kısa vadede artan olumlu tepkisini göstermektedir. Kentleşmenin ekonomik büyümeye verdiği tepki olumludur ve kısa vadede katlanarak artmaktadır. Kentleşmenin enerji tüketimine verdiği cevap olumludur, ancak bu etki uzun vadede önemli ölçüde azalmaktadır. GSYİH'nın enerji tüketimine olumlu bir tepkisi olduğu ancak gözlemlenen dönemde bu tepkinin azaldığı görülmektedir. Bu makalenin sonuçları, OECD ülkelerindeki kentli vatandaşların sürdürülebilir enerjiyi teşvik ederek sürdürülebilir kalkınmaya katkıda bulunmadaki rolleri konusunda büyük farkındalıklarını ortaya koymaktadır. Bu nedenle politika yapıcılar, fosil yakıtlara dayalı enerjinin neden olduğu CO2 emisyonlarını azaltmak için kentsel alanlarda yenilenebilir enerjiyi teşvik etmek için gerekli değişiklikleri yapmalıdır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, Panel VAR, Kentleşme

ENERGY CONSUMPTION, URBANIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP: AN EXAMINATION ON OECD COUNTRIES

Öz

This research tends to present fresh empirical evidence on the energy consumption-urbanization-growth nexus in the case of 34 OECD countries in the period 1996-2015 by applying Panel VAR analysis. Bivariate Panel VAR models suggest a two directional positive response of energy consumption EC to GDP real GDP per capita . Moreover, EC is found to response positively to the UR urban total population . The trivariate VAR model shows a significant positive impact of lagged GDP on the energy consumption. Additionally, lagged energy consumption is found to have a negative impact on urbanization. Urbanization is found to have a positive impact of the consumption of energy as well as on the economic growth. IRFs suggest a positive increasing short-term response of urbanization to the consumption of energy. The response of urbanization to the economic growth is positive and increases exponentially in the short-run. However, the response of urbanization to the energy consumption is positive but decreases significantly in the long-run. GDP is found to have a positive response to energy consumption but this response is decreasing in the observed period. The results of this paper suggest the great awareness of the urban citizens in OECD countries on their role in contributing to sustainable development by promoting sustainable energy. Hence, the policy makers need to do necessary changes to promote the renewable energy in urban areas in order to reduce CO2 emissions caused by energy based on fossil fuels

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Panel VAR, Urbanization

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