OECD ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ: FOURIER PANEL KPSS TESTİNDEN YENİ KANITLAR

Yıl 2020, Sayı: 25, 51 - 63, 19.10.2020

Mehmet Songur

Öz

İşsizlik oranları üzerine meydana gelen şokların kalıcı olup olmadığı konusunda literatürde iki farklı görüş bulunmaktadır. Bunlar doğal işsizlik oranı hipotezi ile histeri hipotezidir. Doğal işsizlik oranı hipotezine göre, işsizlik doğal ve durağan bir süreçtir. Dolayısıyla meydana gelen bir şok işsizlik oranı üzerinde kalıcı bir etkiye sahip değildir. Histeri hipotezine göre ise, iş piyasasındaki katılıklardan dolayı, meydana gelen şoklar işsizlik oranı üzerinde kalıcı bir etkiye sahiptir. Bu bağlamda, ülkelerin işsizlik oranlarının nasıl bir süreç izlediğini analiz etmek önemlidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, OECD ülkelerinde işsizlik histerisi hipotezinin geçerliliğini araştırmaktır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada 28 OECD ülkesine ait 1980-2016 dönemini kapsayan yıllık işsizlik oranı verileri kullanılmıştır. İşsizlik oranının durağanlığı, Nazlıoğlu ve Karul 2017 tarafından önerilen Fourier Panel KPSS durağanlık testi ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, OECD ülkelerinde histeri hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, bireysel sonuçlar panel veri analizi bulgularından farklılaşmaktadır. Buna göre 28 OECD ülkesinden 16'sında işsizlik histerisi hipotezi geçerli iken, diğer ülkelerde doğal işsizlik oranı hipotezi geçerlidir

Anahtar Kelimeler

İşsizlik Histerisi, OECD Ülkeleri, Fourier Durağanlık Testi

UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS IN OECD COUNTRIES: NEW EVIDENCE FROM FOURIER PANEL KPSS TEST

Öz

There are two different views in the literature on whether the shocks on unemployment rates are permanent. These are the hysteresis hypothesis with the natural unemployment rate hypothesis. According to the natural unemployment rate hypothesis, unemployment is a natural and stationary process. Therefore, a shock does not have a permanent impact on the unemployment rate. According to the hysteresis hypothesis, because of the rigidity in the labor market, the shocks that occur have a lasting effect on the unemployment rate. In this context, it is important to analyze how countries ' unemployment rates are following a process. The purpose of this study is to investigate the validity of unemployment hysteresis hypothesis in OECD countries. In this context, the annual unemployment rate data for 28 OECD countries covering the period 1980-2016 was used. The stationarity of the unemployment rate was investigated by Fourier Panel KPSS stationarity test proposed by Nazlioğlu and Karul 2017 . The findings suggest that the hysteresis hypothesis is valid in OECD countries. However, individual results differ from panel data analysis findings. Accordingly, while 16 of the 28 OECD countries have an unemployment hysteresis hypothesis, the natural unemployment rate hypothesis is valid in other countries

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hysteresis in Unemployment, OECD Countries, Fourier Stationarity Test

Kaynakça

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