DEVELOPED-NESS DILEMMA: ECONOMIC AND DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKEY

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 28, 232 - 255, 29.10.2021

Rahman Dağ , Hakan Uslu

Öz

The main aim of the paper is to discover if a long term of a ruling political party provides economic development or decreases democratic quality of a country since more than two terms rule of a political party is considered as a tendency from democracy to authoritarianism. This paper analytically compares the long and short term governments in terms of various economic indicators and employs a regression model to estimate the relationships between economic growth and political stability. Time span of the paper starts in 1950 when Turkey changed political party system from single party to multi-party system and ends in 2018. The paper concludes that average GDP difference between the long and short term governments is 75 per cent more on average in longer term governments. Predicted GDP per capita is approximately 65 per cent higher in longer term of ruling political party. It can be eventually argued that more than two terms of ruling party create economic development, even though there has been a transition from democracy to autocracy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Democratization, Economic Growth, Long-Short Term Governments, Developed-ness, Turkey

KALKINMIŞLIK İKİLEMİ: TÜRKİYE’DE EKONOMİK VE DEMOKRATİK GELİŞME

Öz

Bir siyasi partinin uzun süreli iktidarda kalması (en az iki dönem) demokrasiden otoriterliğe doğru bir eğilim olarak kabul edilebilirken aynı zamanda bir ülkenin ekonomik kalkınmasını sağlayabilmektedir. Bu makale, Türkiye’de 1950-2018 yılları arasında, uzun ve kısa vadeli hükümetleri çeşitli ekonomik göstergeler açısından analitik olarak karşılaştırmakta ve ekonomik büyüme ile siyasi istikrar arasındaki ilişkileri tahmin etmek için bir regresyon modeli kullanmaktadır. Rapor, uzun ve kısa vadeli hükümetler arasındaki ortalama GSYİH farkının, uzun vadeli hükümetlerde ortalama olarak yüzde 75 daha fazla olduğu sonucuna varıyor. İktidardaki siyasi partinin uzun vadede kişi başına tahmini GSYİH'si yaklaşık yüzde 65 daha yüksektir. Demokratik düzeyde bir düşüş olsa da iktidar partisinin ikiden fazla döneminin ekonomik kalkınma yarattığı iddia edilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Demokratikleşme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Kısa-Uzun Dönem Hükümetler, Kalkınmışlık, Türkiye

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