THE EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES: PANEL ARDL ANALYSIS

Öz

The study aims at the determination of the long and short-run effects of international trade and financial development on economic growth, along with the causality relationships among the variables in the fragile five economies. The country group was analyzed in the first stage by the panel ARDL method to determine cointegration among the variables within a heterogeneous panel, followed by the heterogeneous causality testing in the second stage. The following empirical findings are obtained: i. the effects of international trade and openness to trade on economic growth in the long-run are relatively strong and positive, though the short-run effects cannot be accepted, ii. the long run effect of financial development on growth is unexpectedly negative, though a limited positive effect could only be accepted in the short-run, iii.the positive effects of international trade dominates the negative effects of financial development, iv.the direction of causalities are in line with the panel ARDL findings, uni-directional causalities could only be accepted at 10% significance level from financial development and from international trade to economic growth, however the causal effect from trade to financial development cannot be disregarded. These findings favor the positive effects of the international trade on economic growth in the fragile five economies, however, the policies had been limited so far in achieving positive effects of financial development on economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth
• International Trade
• Financial Development

KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELERİNDE FİNANSAL GELİŞME VE ULUSLARARASI TİCARETİN BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: PANEL ARDL ANALİZİ

Öz

Çalışmada, kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde uluslararası ticaret ve finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki uzun ve kısa vadeli etkilerinin ve değişkenler arasındaki nedenselliğin yönünün belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. İlk aşamada, heterojen panel ARDL yöntemi ile uzun vadeli eşbütünleşme ilişkisi modellenmiş, ikinci aşamada, heterojen panel nedensellik testleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmanın ampirik bulguları şunlardır: i. kırılgan beşli ekonomilerinde uluslararası ticaretin ve ticari açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerinde uzun vadede güçlü pozitif etkileri kabul edilirken, kısa vadeli etkileri ise geçersiz bulunmaktadır, ii. finansal gelişmenin büyüme üzerindeki uzun vadeli etkisi beklenenin aksine negatiftir, kısa vadede ise kısmi ve düşük bir pozitif etki söylenebilmektedir, iii. uluslararası ticaretin pozitif etkisi, finansal gelişmenin negatif etkisini baskılamaktadır, iv. panel ARDL bulguları ile de uyumlu olarak, finansal gelişmeden ve uluslararası ticaretten ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik sadece %10 düzeyinde kabul edilebilmekte, uluslararası ticaretten finansal gelişmeye doğru ise tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi dikkat çekmektedir. Çalışmanın bu bulguları, kırılgan beşli ekonomilerinde ticaretin uzun dönemli pozitif etkilerini ortaya koyarken, finansal gelişmenin pozitif etkilerinin sağlanabilmesine yönelik politikalara daha çok ağırlık verilmesi gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Uluslararası Ticaret
• Finansal Gelişme

Kaynakça

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