WAGNER YASASI: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ, 1960-2006

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye için Wagner yasası 1960-2006 arası dönem için araştırılmıştır. Wagner Yasası kamu harcamaları ile milli gelir arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki olup olmadığını araştırır. Bu çalışmada yasanın geçerliliği modern zaman serisi ekonometrik teknikleri ile test edilmiştir. Wagner Yasası’nın geçerliliğini test etmek için ko-integrasyon analizi kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre Florio ve Colutti 2005 ’nın belirttiği elastikiyet ölçütlerine göre analiz edilen dönemde Wagner Yasası’nın iki formülasyonuna göre yasa kabul edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada Toda – Yamamoto Granger nedensellik testi, modelin kısa ve uzun dönem özellikleri hata düzeltme modeli çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Tahmini hata düzeltme modeline göre uzun dönemde kamu harcamaları ve gayri safi yurt içi milli hasıla arasındaki Granger nedensellik çift taraflıdır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Wagner Yasası, Kamu Harcamaları, Ko-integrasyon, Nedensellik, Türkiye Ekonomisi

THE WAGNER’S LAW: TIME SERIES EVIDENCE FOR TURKEY, 1960-2006

Öz

In this paper the Wagner’s Law for Turkey for the period 1960-2006 is analyzed. Wagner’s law investigates whether there is a long run relationship between government expenditures and the gross national product of a country. The paper uses modern time-series econometric techniques to test the validity of law’s proposition. Cointegration analysis is used to test the validity of the Wagner’s law. Our results suggest that Wagner’s law is validated for two formulations using the definition given by Florio & Colutti 2005 according to the elasticity measures for the period under consideration. In this paper the Toda-Yamamoto tests of Granger causality, short and long run properties of the model within an error correction model are examined. Estimated error correction models indicate that the Granger-causality between government expenditures and gross domestic product is bi-directional in the long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Wagner’s law, Government Expenditures, Co-integration, Causality, Turkish Economy

Kaynakça

1. ABIZADEH, S., GRAY, J. (1985). Wagner's law: a pooled time-series cross-section comparison. National Tax Journal, 88, pp.209–218.
2. AFXENTIU, P.C., SERLETIS, A. (1996). Government expenditures in the European Union: do they converge or follow Wagner's law?.International Economic Journal Vol. 10, pp.33-47.
3. AKITOBY, B., CLEMENTS, B., GUPTA, S., INCHAUSTE, G. (2005). Public spending, voracity and Wagner’s law in developing countries. European Journal of Political Economy, Vol.22, Issue 4, pp.908-024.
4. ARISOY, İ. (2005). Wagner ve keynes hipotezleri çerçevesinde Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp.63-80.
5. ARTAN, S., MERMER, B.(2004). Kamu kesimi büyüklüğü ve çoklu ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: çoklu ko-entegrasyon analizi. Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Vol 5, No. 2.
6. BURNEY, A.N. (2002). Wagner’s hypothesis: evidence from Kuwait using cointegration tests. Applied Economics, Vol.34, pp.49-57.
7. CAMERON, D.R. (1978). The expansion of the public economy: a comparative analysis. The American Political Science Review, Vol. 72, pp.1243-1261.
8. CHANG, T. (2002). An econometric test of Wagner’s law for six countries based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques. Applied Economics. Vol.34, pp.1157-1169.

9. CHANG, T., LIU, W., CAUDILL, S.B. (2004). A re-examination of wagner’s law for ten countries based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques. Applied Financial Economics. Vol.14, pp.577-589.
10. CHLETSOS, M., KOLLIAS, C. (1997). Testing Wagner’s law using disaggregated public expenditure data in the case of Greece: 1958-93, Applied Economics. Vol.29, pp.371-377.
11. COURAKIS S.A., MOURA-ROUQUE F., TRIDIMAS G. (1993). Public expenditure growth in Greece and Portugal: wagner’s law and beyond, Applied Economics. Vol.25, pp.125-134.
12. DEMİRBAŞ, S. (1999). Cointegration analysis-causality testing and Wagner's law: the case of Turkey, 1950-1990. Discussion Papers in Economics from Department of Economics, 99/3, University of Leicester.
13. DICKEY, D.A., FULLER W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association. Vol. 74, pp.427-431.
14. ENGLE, R.F., GRANGER, C.W.J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, Vol. 55,pp. 251-276.
15. EASTERLY, W., REBELO, S. (1993), Fiscal policy and economic growth, an empirical investigation. Journal of Monetary Economics Vol.32, pp.417-458.
16. ENGLE, F.R., GRANGER, C.W.J (1987). Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, Vol.55, No: 2, pp.251-276.
17. FLORIO, M., COLAUTTI, S. (2005). A lojistic growth theory of public expenditures: a study of five countries over 100 years. Public Choice, No.122, pp. 355-393.
18. FULLER, A.W., DICKEY, A.D. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, Vol.49, No.4, pp.1057-1071.
19. GANDHI, V.P. (1971). Wagner’s law of public expenditure: “do recent cross section studies confirm it?” Public Finance 26, No: 1, pp.44-56.
20. GHATE, C., ZAK P.J. (2002). Growth of government and the politics of fiscal policy. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol.13, pp.435-455.
21. GÜNAYDIN, İ. (2000). Türkiye için Wagner ve Keynes hipotezlerinin testi. İşletme ve Finans, pp.70-86
22. GWARTNEY, J., LAWSON, R., HOLCOMBE, R. (1998). The size and functions of government and economic growth. Washington, DC: Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. [Accessible form:] http://www.house.gov/jec/growth/function/function.pdf.
23. HALICIOĞLU, F. (2003). Testing Wagner’s law for Turkey, 1960-2000. Rev.Middle East Econ. Fin.,Vol.1, No.2, pp.129-140.
24. HENREKSON, M. (1993), Wagner’s law: a spurious relationship?. Public Finance, Vol.48, No.2, pp.406-415.
25. IŞIK, N., ALAGÖZ, M. (2005). Kamu harcamaları ve büyüme arasındaki ilişki. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, No. 24, pp. 63-75.
26. JOHANSEN, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vector. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol.12, pp.231-254.
27. JOHANSEN, S., JUSELIUS, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration: with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.52, pp.169-210.
28. LANDAU, D. (1983). Government and economic growth in the less developed countries: an empirical study for 1960-1980. Economic Development and Cultural Change, pp.36-75.
29. LEGRENZI, G.(2004). The displacement effect in the growth of governments. Public Choice, Vol.120, pp.191-204.
30. LEGRENZI, G., MILAS, C. (2002). The role of omitted variables in identifying a long-run equilibrium relationship for the Italian government growth. International Tax and Public Finance, Vol.9, pp.435-449.
31. KOLLURI, R.B., PANIK, J.M., WAHAB, S.M. (2000). Government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from G7 countries. Applied Economics, Vol.32, pp.1059-1068.
32. MANN, J.A. (1980). Wagner’s law: an econometric test for Mexico, 1925-1976. National Tax Journal, Vol.33, pp.188-201.
33. MINISTRY of FINANCE PRIME MINISTRY of TURKEY (1995). Budget and finance control general directoriate. No:1995/5. Budget Revenue and Expenditure Realizations, pp.78-80.
34. PEACOCK, A., SCOTT, A. (2000). The curious attraction of wagner’s law. Public Choice, Vol.102, pp.1-17.
35. RAM, R. (1987). Wagner’s hypothesis in time series and cross section perspectives: evidence from real data for 115 countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.69, No.2, pp.359- 393.
36. RAMBALDI, A.N., DORAN, H.E. (1996). Testing for granger non-causality in cointegrated systems made easy. Working paper in econometrics and applied statistics no. 88, University of New England.
37. TOBIN, D. (2004). Economic liberalization, the changing role of the state and wagner’s law: China’s development experience since 1978, World Development, Vol.33, Issue 5,pp.729- 743.
38. TODA, H.Y., YAMAMOTO, T. (1995). Statistical inferences in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 66, pp. 225-50.
39. WAGNER, R.E., WEBER, W.E. (1977). Wagner’s law, fiscal institutions and growth of government. National Tax Journal, Vol.30, pp.59-68.
40. WAHAB, M. (2004). Economic growth and government expenditure: evidence from a new test specification. Applied Economics, Vol.36, pp. 2125-2135.