İSTANBUL BORSASININ TERÖRİST SALDIRILARA REAKSİYONU

Öz

Terörist saldırıların sermaye piyasalarını da kapsayan birçok sektör ve faaliyet üzerinde olumsuz etki yaratabilecek çeşitli ekonomik yansıması olabilmektedir. Bu makale, üç ana terörist saldırının önemli yükselen uluslararası borsalardan biri olan İstanbul Borsası üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Hem genel endeksin hem de sektörel endekslerin verdiği tepkiler araştırılmaktadır. Burada sunulan sonuçlara göre bazı durumlarda anlamlı tepkiler verilmiş olsa da bu tepkiler kısa süreli olmuş ve endeks çabuk toparlanmıştır. Sektörel endekslerden en olumsuz etkilenen turizm sektörü olmuştur

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Vaka Çalışması, Terörizm, Volatilite, İstanbul Borsası

ISTANBUL STOCK MARKET’S REACTION TO TERRORIST ATTACKS

Öz

Terrorist attacks can have a multitude of economic consequences that may adversely affect a number of economic sectors and activities including capital markets. This paper examines the impact of three major terrorist incidents on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, one of the major emerging markets internationally. The reaction of both the general index as well as sectorial indices is investigated. The findings reported herein indicate that the impact, although significant in certain cases, had only short-lived effects since the market rebound was fairly quick. Of the sectorial indices, the tourist industry is found to be more adversely affected by these events.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Event Study, Terrorism, Volatility, Istanbul Stock Market

Kaynakça

1. ABADIE, A., GARDEAZABAL, J. (2008). Terrorism and the world economy. European Economic Review, 52 (1), pp.1-27.
2. ARAS, B., TOKTAŞ, S. (2007). Al-Qaida, ‘War on Terror’ and Turkey, Third World Quarterly, 28 (5), pp.1033-1050.
3. ARAZ-TAKAY, B., ARIN, P., OMAY, T. (2009). The endogenous and non-linear relationship between terrorism and economic performance: Turkish evidence. Defence and Peace Economics, 20 (1), pp.1-10.
4. BARROS, C., GIL-ALANA, L. (2008). Stock market returns and terrorist violence: evidence from the Basque Country. Applied Economics Letters, 16 (15), pp.1575-1579.
5. BOLAK, M., SUER, O. (2008). The effect of Marmara earthquake on financial institutions. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 9 (2), pp.135-145.
6. BOLLERSLEV, T., WOOLDRIDGE, J.M. (1992). Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time varying covariances. Econometric Reviews, 11 (2), pp.143-173.
7. BOLLERSLEV, T. (1986). Generealised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31 (3), pp.307-327.
8. CHEN, A., SIEMS, T. (2004). The effects on terrorism on global capital markets. European Journal of Political Economy, 20 (2), pp.349-366.

9. CHESNEY, M., RESHETAR, G., KARAMAN, M. (2011). The impact of terrorism on financial markets: an empirical study. Journal of Banking and Finance, 35 (2), pp.253- 267.
10. CRAIG MACKINLEY, A. (1997). Event studies in economics and finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35 (1), pp.13-39.
11. DRAKOS, K. (2004). Terrorism-induced structural shifts in financial risk: airline stocks in the aftermath of the September 11th terror attacks. European Journal of Political Economy 20 (2), pp.435-446.
12. DRAKOS, K. (2010). Terrorism activity, investor sentiment and stock returns. Review of Financial Economics, 19 (3), pp.128-135.
13. DRAKOS, K., KUTAN, A. (2003). Regional effects of terrorism on tourism in three Mediterranean countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47 (5), pp.621-641.
14. ELDOR, R., MELNICK, R. (2004). Financial markets and terrorism. European Journal of Political Economy, 20 (2), pp.367-386.
15. ENDERS, W., SANDLER, T. (2006). The Political Economy of Terrorism, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
16. ENDERS, W., SANDLER, T., PARISE, G. (1992). An econometric analysis of the impact of terrorism on tourism. Kyklos, 45 (4), pp.531-554.
17. ENGLE, R., NG, V. (1993). Measuring and testing the impact of news on volatility. Journal of Finance, 48 (5), pp.1749-1778.
18. ENGLE, R. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation, Econometrica, 50 (4), 987-1006.
19. FERIDUN, M. (2011). Impact of terrorism on tourism in Turkey: empirical evidence from Turkey. Applied Economics, 43 (24), pp.3349-3354
20. FERIDUN, M., SEZGIN, S. (2008). Regional underdevelopment and terrorism: the case of south eastern Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 19 (3), pp.225-233
21. FERNANDEZ, V. (2008). The war on terror and its impact on the long term volatility of financial markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 17 (1), pp.1-26.
22. HERBST, A., MARSHALL, J., WINGENDER, J. (1996). An analysis of the stock market’s response to the Exxon Valdez disaster. Global Finance Journal, 7 (1), pp.101-114.
23. HON, M., STRAUSS, J., YONG, S. (2004). Contagion in financial markets after September 11: myth or reality? The Journal of Financial Research, XXVII (1), pp.95-114.
24. KAPLANSKI, G., LEVY, H. (2010). Sentiment and stock prices: The case of aviation disasters. Journal of Financial Economics, 95 (2), pp.174–201.
25. KOLLIAS, C., PAPADAMOU, S., STAGIANNIS, A. (2010). Armed conflicts and capital markets: the case of the Israeli military offensive in the Gaza Strip. Defence and Peace Economics, 21 (4), pp.357-365.
26. KOLLIAS, C., PAPADAMOU, S., STAGIANNIS, A. (2011a). Terrorism and capital markets: the effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks. International Review of Economics and Finance, 20 (4), pp.532-541.
27. KOLLIAS, C., PAPADAMOU, S., STAGIANNIS, A. (2011b). Stock markets and terrorist attacks: comparative evidence from a large and a small capitalization market. European Journal of Political Economy, 27 (S1), pp.S64-77.
28. KOLLIAS, C., PAPADAMOU, S., ARVANITIS, V. (2013). Does terrorism affect the stock- bond covariance? Evidence from European countries. Southern Economic Journal, 79 (4), pp.832-548.
29. LLORCA-VIVERO, R. (2008). Terrorism and international tourism: new evidence. Defence and Peace Economics, 19 (2), pp.169–188.
30. NIKKINEN, J., OMRAN, M., SAHLSTROM, P., AIJO, J. (2008). Stock returns and volatility following the September 11 attacks: evidence from 53 equity markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 17 (1), pp.27-46.
31. OZSOY, O., SAHIN, H. (2006). Direct and indirect effects of terrorism on the Turkish economy. International Journal of Business Management and Economics, 2 (1), pp.59-74.
32. RODOPLU, U., ARNOLD, J., ERSOY, G. (2003). Terrorism in Turkey: implications for emergency management. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 18 (2), pp.152–160.
33. SANDLER, T. (2003). Collective action and transnational terrorism. The World Economy, 26 (6), pp.779-802.
34. SÖNMEZ, S.F. (1998). Tourism, terrorism and political instability. Annals of Tourism Research, 25 (2), pp.416–456.
35. SÖNMEZ, S.F., GRAEFE, A.R. (1998). Influence of terrorism risk on foreign tourism decisions. Annals of Tourism Research 25 (1), pp.112–144.
36. YAYA, M. (2009). Terrorism and tourism: the case of Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 20 (6), pp.477-497.