TRADING VOLUME TREND AS THE INVESTOR’S SENTIMENT INDICATOR IN ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE

Öz

This study relates the changes of trading volume to investor sentiment, and investigates its ability in predicting stock returns. Investor sentiment is the enthusiasm of irrational investors on an asset, relative to that of rational investors. Having investigated the effects of Investor Sentiment on Stock Prices, Baker and Stein argued that an increase in trading volume reflects a rise in investor sentiment, which can be defined as the change in trading volume per unit of time; called the trading volume trend, it can be used as a measure of investor sentiment on individual stocks. This work aims to find out the volume trend characteristics of all listed equities in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Results suggest that almost all beta coefficients of volume trend values have positive signs, which reflects the positive contribution of volume changes on the corresponding stock returns.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Investor Sentiment, Volume Trend, Behavioral Finance

İSTANBUL MENKUL KIYMETLER BORSASINDA YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI GÖSTERGESİ OLARAK İŞLEM HACMİ TRENDİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada işlem hacmi değişimlerinin ilgili hisse senedinin fiyatına etkileri ve hisse senedinin getirisini tahmin etmedeki etkinliği incelenmektedir. Yatırımcı duyarlılığı belirli bir finansal varlığa rasyonel olmayan yatırımcılar tarafından gösterilen ilginin rasyonel yatırımcılar tarafından rasyonel yatırımcı tarafından gösterilen ilgiliye oranıdır. Baker ve Stein’ın da çalışmalarında belirttiği gibi bir hisse senedi üzerinde yatırımcı duyarlılığının etkinliğini gösteren, birim zamandaki işlem hacmi değişimini gösteren ve işlem hacmi trendi olarak tanımlanan bu değişkendeki artışlar aynı zamanda yatırımcı duyarlılığının artışını temsil etmektedir.Bu çalışmada IMKB’deki tüm hisse senetlerinin işlem hacmi trendi karakteristiklerinin gözlemlenmesi hedeflenmektedir. Sonuçta işlem hacmi trendine ilişkin neredeyse tüm beta katsayıları pozitif bulunmuştur. Bu işlem hacmi trendi ile hisse senedi getirilerindeki doğrusal ilişkiyi yansıtmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yatırımcı duyarlılığı, Hacim Trendi, Davranışsal Finans

Kaynakça

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