TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL TÜKETİMİNİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada 1974-2014 dönemi yıllık verilerle Türkiye ekonomisi için ekonomik büyüme ile petrol tüketimi arasındaki ilişkiler kısa dönem nedensellik testleri, uzun dönem Engle-Granger ve Gregory-Hansen eşbütünleşme yöntemleri ile incelenmiştir. Ampirik sonuçlar değişkenler arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olmadığını, ancak UVAR, TYVAR ve Hsiao’nun Granger nedensellik testleri kısa dönemde petrol tüketiminden ekonomik büyümeye doğru pozitif, tek yönlü bir nedenselliğin olduğunu, petrol tüketimi arttıkça büyüme hızının arttığını göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enerji Tüketimi, Petrol, Ekonomik Büyüme, VAR Analizi, Türkiye

THE EFFECT OF OIL CONSUMPTION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Öz

This study investigates the causality link between economic growth and oil consumption using annual data over the years of 1974-2014 by using causality tests and the Engle-Granger and Gregory-Hansen co-integration models for the Turkish economy. The empirical findings support the view that there is no long term co-integration between the level of economic growth and oil consumption level. However, the UVAR, TYVAR and Hsiao’s Granger causality tests in the short term show that a positive one-way causality is going from the oil consumption level to the economic growth rate, and oil consumption level stimulates economic growth rate.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Energy Consumption, Oil, Economic Growth, VAR Analysis, Turkey

Kaynakça

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