THE RELATIONSHIP OF EXPORT, ENERGY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR ADVANCED AND DEVELOPING NUTS 2 REGIONS

Öz

The purpose of this study is to determine the causality relationships between economic growth, exports and energy in NUTS 2 regions. Since the 26 sub-regions have different levels of development, the analyzes have been made by dividing them into developed and developing regions. Unidirectional causality from economic growth to exports and from economic growth to electricity consumption and bidirectional causality between exports and electricity consumption were found in developed NUTS 2 regions. Thus, the conservation hypothesis was supported in the developed regions. In developing NUTS 2 regions, a unidirectional causality relationship from exports to economic growth has been found and the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis has been proven.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth
• Energy
• Export
• Panel Causality Test

İHRACAT, ENERJİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: GELİŞMİŞ VE GELİŞMEKTE OLAN DÜZEY 2 BÖLGELERİ İÇİN NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Düzey 2 bölgelerinde ekonomik büyüme, ihracat ve enerji arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini tespit etmektir. 26 alt bölgenin farklı gelişme düzeyine sahip olmalarından dolayı analizler gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan bölgeler olarak ikiye ayrılarak yapılmıştır. Gelişmiş Düzey 2 bölgelerinde ekonomik büyümeden ihracata ve ekonomik büyümeden elektrik tüketimine doğru tek yönlü ve ihracat ile elektrik tüketimi arasında ise çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmıştır. Böylece, gelişmiş bölgelerde koruma hipotezi desteklenmiştir. Gelişmekte olan Düzey 2 bölgelerinde ise ihracattan ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuş ve ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geçerliliği ispatlanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Enerji
• İhracat
• Panel Nedensellik Testi

Kaynakça

1. Abosedra, S., Dah, A. ve Ghosh, S. (2009). Electricity consumption and economic growth, the case of Lebanon. Applied Energy, 86(4), 429-432.
2. Acaravcı, A., Bozkurt, C. ve Erdoğan, S. (2015). MENA ülkelerinde demokrasi-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 3(4), 119-129.
3. Acaravcı, A. ve Öztürk, İ. (2010). On the relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Europe. Energy, 35(12), 5412-5420.
4. Adu, J. (2019). Role of energy and exports in economic growth in Ghana. American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 11(1), 10-18.
5. Ajmi, A. N., Hammoudeh, S., Nguyen, D. K., ve Sato, J. R. (2015). On the relationships between CO2 emissions, energy consumption and income: The importance of time variation. Energy Economics, 49, 629-638.
6. Akarca, A. T. ve Long II, T. V. (1979). Energy and employment: a time-series analysis of the causal relationship. Resources and Energy, 2(2-3), 151-162.
7. Aktaş, M. T. ve Çatalbaş, N. (2011). Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi'nin kalkınma ve ihracat ilişkisi üzerine bir inceleme. Marmara University Journal of the Faculty of Economic & Administrative Sciences, 31(2), 61-90.
8. Altıntaş, H. ve Koçbulut, Ö. (2014). Türkiye’de elektrik tüketiminin dinamikleri ve ekonomik büyüme: sinir testi ve nedensellik analizi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 43, 37-65.

9. Aydin, M. (2019). The effect of biomass energy consumption on economic growth in brıcs countries: a country-specific panel data analysis. Renewable Energy, 138, 620-627.
10. Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: further evidence. Journal of development Economics, 5(2), 181-189.
11. Bao, C. ve Xu, M. (2019). Cause and effect of renewable energy consumption on urbanization and economic growth in China’s provinces and regions. Journal of Cleaner Production, 231, 483-493.
12. Bilgili, F. ve Öztürk, İ. (2015). Biomass energy and economic growth nexus in G7 countries: Evidence from dynamic panel data. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 49, 132-138.
13. Bond, S. ve Eberhardt, M. (2013). Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models. University of Oxford, 1-11, Londra
14. Brazzel, J. M. ve Hicks, W. W. (1968). Exports and regional economic growth: an evaluation of the economic base and staple models. Land Economics, 44(4), 503-509.
15. Breusch, T.S. ve A.R. Pagan (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics, Rev. Econ. Stud. 47(1), 239-253.
16. Çetin, Murat ve Şeker, Fahri (2012). Enerji tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 31(1), 85-106.
17. Çütçü, İ. (2013). İhracatçı firmaların kalkınmaya etkisi ve firmaların ihracat performansını etkileyen faktörler: Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi üzerine bir uygulama. Adıyaman Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2013(15), 151-184.
18. Dedeoğlu, D. ve Kaya, H. (2013). Energy use, exports, imports and GDP: New evidence from the OECD countries. Energy Policy, 57, 469-476.
19. Destek, M. A. ve Aslan, A. (2017). Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth in emerging economies: Evidence from bootstrap panel causality. Renewable Energy, 111, 757-763.
20. Doğan, E. (2016). Analyzing the linkage between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth by considering structural break in time-series data. Renewable Energy, 99, 1126-1136.
21. Emirmahmutoğlu, F. ve Köse, N. (2011). Testing for granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28, 870-876.
22. Erdal, G., Erdal, H. ve Esengün, K. (2008). The causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey. Energy Policy, 36(10), 3838-3842.
23. Esfahani, H. S. (1991). Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries. Journal of Development Economics, 35(1), 93-116.
24. Gaspar, J. D. S., Marques, A. C. ve Fuinhas, J. A. (2017). The traditional energy-growth nexus: a comparison between sustainable development and economic growth approaches. Ecological Indicators, 75, 286-296.
25. Ghosh, S. (2002). Electricity consumption and economic growth in India. Energy Policy, 30(2), 125-129.
26. Grossman, G. M. ve Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and growth in the global economy. Londra: MIT Press. Halicioglu, F. (2007). Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey. Energy Economics, 29(2), 199-210.
27. Helpman, E. ve Krugman, P. R. (1985). Market structure and foreign trade: Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy. Londra: MIT Press.
28. Ho, C. Y. ve Siu, K. W. (2007). A dynamic equilibrium of electricity consumption and GDP in Hong Kong: an empirical investigation. Energy Policy, 35(4), 2507-2513.
29. Karanfil, F. (2008). Energy consumption and economic growth revisited: Does the size of unrecorded economy matter?. Energy Policy, 36(8), 3029-3035.
30. Khan, A., Muhammad, F., Chenggang, Y., Hussain, J., Bano, S. ve Khan, M. A. (2020). The Impression of Technological Innovations and Natural Resources in Energy-Growth-Environment Nexus: A New Look into BRICS Economies. Science of the Total Environment, 727, 1-11.
31. Kilkenny, M. ve Partridge, M. D. (2009). Export sectors and rural development. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91(4), 910-929.
32. Kraft, J. ve Kraft, A. (1978). On the relationship between energy and GNP. The Journal of Energy and Development. 3(2), 401-403.
33. Le, H. P. (2020). The energy-growth nexus revisited: The role of financial development, institutions, government expenditure and trade openness. Heliyon, 6, 1-11.
34. Lean, H. H. ve Smyth, R. (2010). Multivariate Granger causality between electricity generation, exports, prices and GDP in Malaysia. Energy, 35(9), 3640-3648.
35. Li, Y., Chen, Z. ve San, C. (2010). Research on the relationship between foreign trade and the gdp growth of East China-empirical analysis based on causality. Modern Economy, 1(2), 118-124
36. Lin, B. ve Benjamin, I. N. (2018). Causal relationship between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth for MINT: Evidence from panel dynamic ordinary least square models. Journal of Cleaner Production, 197, 708-720.
37. Lise, W. ve Van Montfort, K. (2007). Energy consumption and GDP in Turkey: Is there a co‐integration relationship?. Energy Economics, 29(6), 1166-1178.
38. Makun, K. (2015). Cointegration relationship between economic growth, export and electricity consumption: Eviden from Fiji. Advanced Energy: An International Journal, 2(2), 1-7.
39. Menegaki, A. N. ve Tiwari, A. K. (2017). The index of sustainable economic welfare in the energy-growth nexus for American countries. Ecological Indicators, 72, 494-509.
40. Narayan, P. K. ve Prasad, A. (2008). Electricity consumption–real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries. Energy Policy, 36(2), 910-918.
41. Narayan, P. K. ve Smyth, R. (2009). Multivariate Granger causality between electricity consumption, exports and GDP: evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries. Energy Policy, 37(1), 229-236.
42. Ndlovu, V. ve Inglesi-Lotz, R. (2020). The causal relationship between energy and economic growth through research and development (R&D): The case of BRICS and lessons for South Africa. Energy, 199, 1-11.
43. Ozturk I. A. (2010). Literature survey on energy-growth nexus. Energy Policy, 38, 340–349.
44. Örgün, B. O. ve Pala, A. (2017). Enerji tüketimi, dışa açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: 28 Avrupa Birliği ülkesi için panel granger nedensellik analizi. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 54(623), 9-20.
45. Pastén, R., Saens, R. ve Contreras Marin, R. (2015). Does energy use cause economic growth in Latin America?. Applied Economics Letters, 22(17), 1399-1403.
46. Payne, J. E. (2010). Survey of the international evidence on the causal relationship between energy consumption and growth. Journal of Economic Studies, 37(1), 53-95.
47. Pesaran, M. H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93.
48. Pesaran, M.H., 2007. A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. J. Appl. Econ. 22, 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951.
49. Sadorsky, P. (2012). Energy consumption, output and trade in South America. Energy Economics, 34(2), 476-488.
50. Shakeel, M. ve Ahmed, A. (2020). Economic growth, exports, and role of energy conservation: Evidence from panel co-integration-based causality models in South Asia. Energy & Environment, 32(1), 3-24.
51. Shakeel, M., Iqbal, M. M. ve Majeed, M. T. (2014). Energy consumption, trade and GDP: A case study of South Asian countries. The Pakistan Development Review, 53(4), 461-476.
52. Shiu, A. ve Lam, P. L. (2004). Electricity consumption and economic growth in China. Energy Policy, 32(1), 47-54.
53. Soytas, U. ve Sari, R. (2003). Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets. Energy Economics, 25(1), 33-37.
54. Soytas, U. ve Sari, R. (2009). Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member. Ecological Economics, 68(6), 1667-1675.
55. Terzi, Harun (1998). Türkiye’de elektrik tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 13(3), 62-72.
56. Tiba, S. ve Omri, A. (2017). Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 69, 1129-1146.
57. Usman, A., Ozturk, I., Hassan, A., Zafar ve S. M., Ullah, S. (2021). The effect of ICT on energy consumption and economic growth in South Asian economies: An empirical analysis. Telematic and Informatics, 58, 1-9.
58. Yıldırım, E. ve Aslan, A. (2012). Energy consumption and economic growth nexus for 17 highly developed OECD countries: further evidence based on bootstrap-corrected causality tests. Energy Policy, 51, 985-993.
59. Yu, E. S. ve Choi, J. Y. (1985). The causal relationship between energy and GNP: an international comparison. The Journal of Energy and Development, 249-272.
60. Zhang, C. ve Xu, J. (2012). Retesting the causality between energy consumption and GDP in China: evidence from sectoral and regional analyses using dynamic panel data. Energy Economics, 34(6), 1782-1789.
61. Žikovic, S., Žikovic, I. T. ve Lenz, N. V. (2020). A disaggregated approach to energy-growth nexus: micro-regional view. Energy Strategy Reviews, 28, 1-9.