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TÜRKİYE’DEKİ ŞİRKETLERDE ERKEN UYARI GÖSTERGELERİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI

Yıl 2001, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 2, 59 - 70, 01.07.2001

Önder Kutman

Öz

Şirketlerin karlılıklarının seyri başta hissedarlar olmak üzere, tüm yatırımcıların, kredi veren kuruluşların ve denetim şirketlerinin ilgi odağı olmaktadır. Bu araştırmanın amacı Türkiye'de beyaz eşya, otomotiv ve gıda sektörlerindeki şirketlerin özsermaye karlılıklarını bir sene öncesinden tahmin edebilecek bir model oluşturmaktır. Söz konusu sektörler ve ilgili şirketler için bir erken uyarı sistemi olarak da değerlendirilebilecek model oluşturulurken geniş bir literatür taraması yapılmış ve dünyada bu konuda yapılmış benzeri çalışmalar incelenmiştir. Modelde, incelenen üç sektörde de etkili olabilecek ortak değişkenler finansal rasyolar ve ekonomik trendler kullanılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Özsermaye Karlılığı Beyaz Eşya Otomotiv Gıda Erken Uyarı Sistemi

Kaynakça

  • ALTMAN, E.I., R.G. HALDEMAN and P NARAYANAN (1977). "Zeta Analysis", Journal of Banking and Finance
  • ALTMAN, E.I. (1993). Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy, A Complete Guide to Predicting and Avoiding Distress and Profiting From Bankruptcy, Second Edition, Wiley.
  • ALTMAN, E.I. and H.Y. IZAN (1982). "Identifying Corporate Distress in Australia: An Industry Relative Analysis", Australia Graduate School of Management.
  • ASHIG, A., A. KLEIN and J. ROZENFELD (1992). "Analysts’ Use of Information About Permanent and Transitory Earnings Components in Forecasting Annual EPS", The Accounting Review, 67.
  • BALL, R. and S.P. KOTHARI (1994). Financial Statement Analysis, Mc Graw Hill Inc.
  • BALL, R. and R.L. WATTS (1972). "Some Time Series Properties of Accounting Income", Journal of Finance, 27.
  • BEAVER, W. (1967). "Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failures, Empirical Research in Accounting", Journal of Accounting Research.
  • BLACKWELL, B., I.M.D. LITTLE and A.C. RAYNER (1966). "Higgledy Piggledy Growth Again", Institute of Statistics.
  • BLUM, M.P. (1974). "The Failing Company Doctrine", Boston College Industrial and Commercial Review, Vol. 16.
  • BROWN, L.D. and M.S. ROZEFF (1978). "The Superiority of Analyst Forecasts as Measures of Expectations : Evidence From Earnings", Journal of Finance, 33.
  • DEAKIN, E.B. (1972). "A discriminant Analysis of Predictors of Business Failure", Journal of Accounting Research, March.
  • EDMISTER, R.O. (1972). "An Empirical Test of Financial Ratio Analysis For Small Business Failure Prediction", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.
  • ERTEK, T. (1996). Ekonometriye Giriş, Beta Yayınları.
  • LIBBY, R. (1975). "Accounting Ratios and the Prediction of Failure", Journal of Accounting Research, Spring.
  • LITTLE, I.M.D. (1962). Higgledy Piggledy Growth, No: 4.
  • MORRIS, R. (1997). "Early Warning Indicators Of Corporate Failure, A Critical Review Of Previous Research and Further Empirical Evidence", Ashgate.
  • OHLSON, J. (1980). "Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy", Journal of Accounting Research.
  • OU, J. and S.H. PENMAN (1989). "Financial Statement Analysis and Prediction of Stock Returns", Journal of Accounting and Economics, 11, November.
  • PLATT, H.D. and M.B. PLATT (1990). "Development of Stable Predictive Variables: The Case of Bankruptcy Prediction", Journal of Business Finance and Accounting.
  • ROSE, P., W. ANDREWS and G. GIROUX (1982). "Predicting Business Failure : A Macroeconomic Perspective", Journal of Accounting Auditing and Finance, Fall.
  • WILCOX, J. (1971). "A Simple Theory of Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure", Journal of Accounting Research, Autumn.
  • ZMIJEVSKI, M.E. (1984). "Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models", Journal of Accounting Research.

Yıl 2001, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 2, 59 - 70, 01.07.2001

Önder Kutman

Öz

Companies’ profitability trends attract not only the attention of the shareholders, but also the attention of all the investors, creditors and auditing firms. The aim of this research is to set up a model which will predict the return on equity values of the companies in white goods, automotive and food sectors one year before. While preparing this study, which can be evaluated as an early warning indicators analysis for different sectors, a wide range of literature search is done and similar studies are examined. In this research, common variables for each of the three sectors financial ratios and economical trends are utilized

Anahtar Kelimeler

Return on equity White goods Automative Food Early warning indicator system

Kaynakça

  • ALTMAN, E.I., R.G. HALDEMAN and P NARAYANAN (1977). "Zeta Analysis", Journal of Banking and Finance
  • ALTMAN, E.I. (1993). Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy, A Complete Guide to Predicting and Avoiding Distress and Profiting From Bankruptcy, Second Edition, Wiley.
  • ALTMAN, E.I. and H.Y. IZAN (1982). "Identifying Corporate Distress in Australia: An Industry Relative Analysis", Australia Graduate School of Management.
  • ASHIG, A., A. KLEIN and J. ROZENFELD (1992). "Analysts’ Use of Information About Permanent and Transitory Earnings Components in Forecasting Annual EPS", The Accounting Review, 67.
  • BALL, R. and S.P. KOTHARI (1994). Financial Statement Analysis, Mc Graw Hill Inc.
  • BALL, R. and R.L. WATTS (1972). "Some Time Series Properties of Accounting Income", Journal of Finance, 27.
  • BEAVER, W. (1967). "Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failures, Empirical Research in Accounting", Journal of Accounting Research.
  • BLACKWELL, B., I.M.D. LITTLE and A.C. RAYNER (1966). "Higgledy Piggledy Growth Again", Institute of Statistics.
  • BLUM, M.P. (1974). "The Failing Company Doctrine", Boston College Industrial and Commercial Review, Vol. 16.
  • BROWN, L.D. and M.S. ROZEFF (1978). "The Superiority of Analyst Forecasts as Measures of Expectations : Evidence From Earnings", Journal of Finance, 33.
  • DEAKIN, E.B. (1972). "A discriminant Analysis of Predictors of Business Failure", Journal of Accounting Research, March.
  • EDMISTER, R.O. (1972). "An Empirical Test of Financial Ratio Analysis For Small Business Failure Prediction", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.
  • ERTEK, T. (1996). Ekonometriye Giriş, Beta Yayınları.
  • LIBBY, R. (1975). "Accounting Ratios and the Prediction of Failure", Journal of Accounting Research, Spring.
  • LITTLE, I.M.D. (1962). Higgledy Piggledy Growth, No: 4.
  • MORRIS, R. (1997). "Early Warning Indicators Of Corporate Failure, A Critical Review Of Previous Research and Further Empirical Evidence", Ashgate.
  • OHLSON, J. (1980). "Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy", Journal of Accounting Research.
  • OU, J. and S.H. PENMAN (1989). "Financial Statement Analysis and Prediction of Stock Returns", Journal of Accounting and Economics, 11, November.
  • PLATT, H.D. and M.B. PLATT (1990). "Development of Stable Predictive Variables: The Case of Bankruptcy Prediction", Journal of Business Finance and Accounting.
  • ROSE, P., W. ANDREWS and G. GIROUX (1982). "Predicting Business Failure : A Macroeconomic Perspective", Journal of Accounting Auditing and Finance, Fall.
  • WILCOX, J. (1971). "A Simple Theory of Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure", Journal of Accounting Research, Autumn.
  • ZMIJEVSKI, M.E. (1984). "Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models", Journal of Accounting Research.
Toplam 22 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Önder Kutman Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Temmuz 2001
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2001 Cilt: 2 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Kutman, Ö. (2001). TÜRKİYE’DEKİ ŞİRKETLERDE ERKEN UYARI GÖSTERGELERİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 2(2), 59-70.