ULUSLARARASI FUTBOL TURNUVALARININ SONUÇLARI TAHMİN EDİLEBİLİR Mİ? EURO 2000 ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2005, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 112 - 122, 01.01.2005

Ruşen Ferda Halıcıoğlu

Öz

Bu çalışma Euro 2000 futbol turnuvasını hangi finalist ülkenin kazanabileceğini istatiksel olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Euro 2000 futbol turnuvasına katılan finalist ülkelerin birinci liglerinde oluşan yıl sonu puan tablolarından hesaplanan değişim katsayısı DK bu öngörü için kullanılmıştır. Euro 2000 futbol turnuvası öncesi her finalist ülke için hesaplanan son on yılın DK değerleri, finalistlerin futboldaki rekabetçiliklerini sıralamada ve Euro 2000'ni kazanmalarında tek belirleyici değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. On beş finalist ülke için hesaplanan uzun, orta ve kısa dönem DK değerlerinden oluşturulan senaryolara göre Euro 2000 ni Fransa'nın kazanmasının en muhtemel olduğu ve İspanya nın ise diğer bir güçlü aday olduğu öngörülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Futbol, Sıralama, UEFA, Spor Öngörüleri

CAN WE PREDICT THE OUTCOME OF THE INTERNATIONAL FOOTBALL TOURNAMENTS? : THE CASE OF EURO 2000

Öz

This paper statistically analyses and attempts to predict the most likely winners of the Euro 2000 football tournament on the basis of the seasonal coefficients of variation CVs of the end-of-season points, which were computed from the top division final standings of participating countries of Euro 2000. The CV values computed from over ten seasons for the respective countries were used as a sole measurement value to rank the countries and to determine the most likely winners of Euro 2000. According to the three scenarios long-term, mid-term, and short-term based on the respective CV values of fifteen countries, France appeared to be the most likely country to win Euro 2000 and was closely followed by Spain.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Football, Ranking, Uefa, Sports Forecasts

Kaynakça

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