THE COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF TURKEY'S EXPORT DEMAND FUNCTION BY BOUNDS TEST

Yıl 2005, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 144 - 152, 01.01.2005

Muammer Şimşek Cem Kadılar

Öz

This study includes an econometric analysis ofthe export demand behaviour by using Turkey's annual data that cover 32 years periodsfrom 1970 to 2002. in the study, the •bounds test' method of Pesaran et al 2001 was used to investigate the long run relationship between export demand, and its determinants, namely income and relative prices. As a result of this empirical analysis, it was demonstrated that export volume, income and relative prices were cointegrated. The estimated long term elasticities of export demand with respect to income and relative prices are 0.21 and -1.684, respectively The sum ofthe elasticities of import and export demand exceeds one -1.01 i.e, Marshall-Lerner condition holds. These results show that monetary, flscal and exchange rate policies may be used as substitutive policies to correct unfavourable trade balance

Anahtar Kelimeler

Export demand, Marshall-Lerner condition, unit roots, unrestricted error correction model, cointegration, bounds test, critical value bounds.

TÜRKİYE'NİN İHRACAT TALEBİ FONKSİYONUNUN SINIR TESTİ YÖNTEMİ İLE EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin 1970'den 2002 yılına kadar kadar olan 32 yıllık dönemini kapsayan yıllık verileri kullanarak yapılan ihracat talebinin ekonometrik analizini içermektedir. Çalışmada, ihracat talebi ile ihracat talebini belirleyen etkenler olan gelir ve nispi fiyatlar arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi incelemek amacıyla Pesaran, ve öte. 2001 'in sınır testi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bu ampirik analizin sonucunda, ihracatla, gelir ve nispi fiyatların eşbütünleşik oldukları görülmüştür. İhracat talebinin, gelir ve nispi fiyatlara göre tahmin edilen uzun dönem esneklikleri sırayla; 0.21 ve - 1.684 olarak bulunmuştur. İthalat ve ihracat fiyat esnekliklerinin toplamı birden büyüktür. -1.01 Marshall-Lerner koşulu sağlanmaktadır. Bu sonuçlar; parasal, mali ve döviz kuru politikalarının halen mevcut olan aleyhteki ticaret dengesinin düzeltilmesinde yardımcı araçlar olarak kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracat Talebi, Marshall - Lerner Koşulu, Birim Kök, Kısıtsız Hata Düzeltme Modeli, Eşbütünleşme Analizi, Sınır Testi, Kritik Sınır Değerleri

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