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TÜRKİYE’DE BÜTÇE TAHMİNİ DOĞRULUĞUNUN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZİ

Yıl 2005, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 190 - 201, 01.07.2005

Öz

Bu çalı ma ile Türkiye’de bütçe tahminlerinin do rulu u analiz edilmektedir. 1981-2003 dönemine ait 23 yıl için kullanılan veri, gelir ve harcamalara ili kin tahmin edilen ve gerçekle en genel bütçe verilerine dayanmaktadır. Tek örnek istatisti i ve tek örnek t testi kullanılarak bütçe tahminlerinin do rulu u ara tırılmaktadır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular bütçe tahminlerinde tahmin hataları yapıldı ını ve bu hataların istatistiksel olarak gelir tahminlerinde fazla gelir tahminine, harcama tahminlerinde ise dü ük harcama tahminine yönelik bir e ilim olduğu şeklindedir

Kaynakça

  • AUERBACH, A. (1999) On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts, National Tax Journal, 52 (4), pp. 767-82.
  • AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL AUDIT OFFICE (1999) Management of Commonwealth Budgetary Process: Preliminary Study, Audit Report No: 38/1998-99, Canberra ACT.
  • BA D GEN, M. (2002) How Accurate is Revenue Forecasting in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis, Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 13(2), pp. 29-37.
  • BAHL, R. (1980) Revenue and Expenditure Forecasting by State and Local Governments. In Peterson, J.E. and et al. eds. State and Local Government Finance and Financial Management, Washington, D.C., Finance Research Center.
  • BRETSCHNEIDER, S.I. and GORR, W.L. (1987) State and Local Government Revenue Forecasting. In Makridakis, S. and Whellwrigth, S.C. eds. The Handbook of Forecasting, New York, John Wiley, pp. 118-134.
  • GENERAL DIRECTOR OF REVENUE (2004) Tax Statistics (Internet), Available from: <http://www.gelirler.gov.tr/gelir2.nsf> (Accessed October 28, 2004).
  • GENERAL DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTS (2004) Public Accounts Bulletin (Internet), Available from: <http://www.muhasebat.gov.tr/mbulten/T3- 1-10.htm> and <http://www.muhasebat.gov.tr/mbulten/T4-1-3.htm> (Accessed October 28, 2004)
  • GRANOF, M.H. (1978) Financial Forecasting in Municipalities: How Accurate, Government Accountants Journal, Winter, 1977-78, pp. 18-25.
  • KLIESEN, K.L. and THORNTON, D.L. (2001) The Expected Federal Budget Surplus: How Much Confidence Should the Public and Policymakers Place in the Projections?, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 83 (2), pp. 11-24.
  • MAYPER, A.G., GRANOF, M. and GIROUX, G. (1991) An Analysis of Municipal Budget Variances, Accounting, Auditing and Accountability Journal, 4 (1), pp. 29-50.
  • RODGERS, R. and JOYCE, P. (1996) The Effect of Underforecasting on the Accuracy of Revenue Forecasts by State Governments, Public Administration Review, 56 (1), pp. 48-56.
  • SCHOEDER, L. (1982) Local Government Multi-Year Budgetary Forecasting: Some Administrative and Political Issues, Public Administration Review, 42 (2), pp. 121-127.
  • STATE INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS (2001) Statistical Indicators, 1923-1998, State Institute of Statistics, Printing Division, Ankara.
  • VASCHE, J.D. and WILLIAMS, B. (1987) Optimal Governmental Budgeting Contingency Reserve Funds, Public Budgeting and Finance, Spring, pp. 66-82.
  • WILLIAMS, B., INGENITO, R. and VASCHE, J.D. (1999) Forecasting Revenue Receipts in the States: Current Challenges in California, National Tax Journal, LII (3), pp. 361-371.

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ACCURATE BUDGET FORECASTING IN TURKEY

Yıl 2005, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 190 - 201, 01.07.2005

Öz

This paper analyzes the accuracy of budget forecasts in Turkey. Data is based on 23 years' forecasted and materialized general budget revenues and outlays, from 1981 to 2003. One sample statistics, tabulated, and one sample t tests are applied to find out the accuracy of forecasting and the results show that there are statistically significant forecast errors and this significance, especially, indicates biases towards under-forecasting of outlays and over-forecasting of revenues.

Kaynakça

  • AUERBACH, A. (1999) On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts, National Tax Journal, 52 (4), pp. 767-82.
  • AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL AUDIT OFFICE (1999) Management of Commonwealth Budgetary Process: Preliminary Study, Audit Report No: 38/1998-99, Canberra ACT.
  • BA D GEN, M. (2002) How Accurate is Revenue Forecasting in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis, Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 13(2), pp. 29-37.
  • BAHL, R. (1980) Revenue and Expenditure Forecasting by State and Local Governments. In Peterson, J.E. and et al. eds. State and Local Government Finance and Financial Management, Washington, D.C., Finance Research Center.
  • BRETSCHNEIDER, S.I. and GORR, W.L. (1987) State and Local Government Revenue Forecasting. In Makridakis, S. and Whellwrigth, S.C. eds. The Handbook of Forecasting, New York, John Wiley, pp. 118-134.
  • GENERAL DIRECTOR OF REVENUE (2004) Tax Statistics (Internet), Available from: <http://www.gelirler.gov.tr/gelir2.nsf> (Accessed October 28, 2004).
  • GENERAL DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTS (2004) Public Accounts Bulletin (Internet), Available from: <http://www.muhasebat.gov.tr/mbulten/T3- 1-10.htm> and <http://www.muhasebat.gov.tr/mbulten/T4-1-3.htm> (Accessed October 28, 2004)
  • GRANOF, M.H. (1978) Financial Forecasting in Municipalities: How Accurate, Government Accountants Journal, Winter, 1977-78, pp. 18-25.
  • KLIESEN, K.L. and THORNTON, D.L. (2001) The Expected Federal Budget Surplus: How Much Confidence Should the Public and Policymakers Place in the Projections?, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 83 (2), pp. 11-24.
  • MAYPER, A.G., GRANOF, M. and GIROUX, G. (1991) An Analysis of Municipal Budget Variances, Accounting, Auditing and Accountability Journal, 4 (1), pp. 29-50.
  • RODGERS, R. and JOYCE, P. (1996) The Effect of Underforecasting on the Accuracy of Revenue Forecasts by State Governments, Public Administration Review, 56 (1), pp. 48-56.
  • SCHOEDER, L. (1982) Local Government Multi-Year Budgetary Forecasting: Some Administrative and Political Issues, Public Administration Review, 42 (2), pp. 121-127.
  • STATE INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS (2001) Statistical Indicators, 1923-1998, State Institute of Statistics, Printing Division, Ankara.
  • VASCHE, J.D. and WILLIAMS, B. (1987) Optimal Governmental Budgeting Contingency Reserve Funds, Public Budgeting and Finance, Spring, pp. 66-82.
  • WILLIAMS, B., INGENITO, R. and VASCHE, J.D. (1999) Forecasting Revenue Receipts in the States: Current Challenges in California, National Tax Journal, LII (3), pp. 361-371.
Toplam 15 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Muhlis Bağdigen Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Temmuz 2005
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2005 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Bağdigen, M. (2005). AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ACCURATE BUDGET FORECASTING IN TURKEY. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 6(2), 190-201.