TÜRKİYE’DE BÜTÇE TAHMİNİ DOĞRULUĞUNUN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZİ

Yıl 2005, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 190 - 201, 01.07.2005

Muhlis Bağdigen

Öz

Bu çalı ma ile Türkiye’de bütçe tahminlerinin do rulu u analiz edilmektedir. 1981-2003 dönemine ait 23 yıl için kullanılan veri, gelir ve harcamalara ili kin tahmin edilen ve gerçekle en genel bütçe verilerine dayanmaktadır. Tek örnek istatisti i ve tek örnek t testi kullanılarak bütçe tahminlerinin do rulu u ara tırılmaktadır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular bütçe tahminlerinde tahmin hataları yapıldı ını ve bu hataların istatistiksel olarak gelir tahminlerinde fazla gelir tahminine, harcama tahminlerinde ise dü ük harcama tahminine yönelik bir e ilim olduğu şeklindedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bütçe tahmini, bütçeleme, tahmin hatası

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ACCURATE BUDGET FORECASTING IN TURKEY

Öz

This paper analyzes the accuracy of budget forecasts in Turkey. Data is based on 23 years' forecasted and materialized general budget revenues and outlays, from 1981 to 2003. One sample statistics, tabulated, and one sample t tests are applied to find out the accuracy of forecasting and the results show that there are statistically significant forecast errors and this significance, especially, indicates biases towards under-forecasting of outlays and over-forecasting of revenues.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Budget Forecasting, Budgeting, Forecast Error

Kaynakça

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