ENFLASYON BELİRSİZLİĞİNİN ÜRETİM ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2008, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 191 - 206, 01.07.2008

Mübariz Hasanov

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için enflasyon belirsizliğinin üretim açığı üzerindeki etkisi, 1986 - 2006 dönemi verileri kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Analizin kapsadığı dönem, hem yüksek enflasyon, hem de düşük enflasyon dönemlerini içerdiği için enflasyon belirsizliğinin etkilerini analiz etmek açısından ilginç bir örneklem oluşturmaktadır. Yapılan analizler, enflasyon belirsizliğinin, hem yüksek enflasyon döneminde, hem de dezenflasyon sürecinde üretim açığı üzerinde negatif ve istatiksel olarak anlamlı etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar, enflasyon oranını düşürmenin yanısıra, düşük düzeyde sabit tutulmasının da büyüme açısından önemli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enflasyon Belirsizliği, Yapısal Kırılma, Üretim Açığı

EFFECTS OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON OUTPUT: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Öz

In this paper we estimate the effects of inflation uncertainty on output gap in Turkey using monthly data for the 1986-2006 period. Since it includes both high and low inflationary periods, the said period offers a good sample for assessing the effects of uncertainty on output. The results suggest that inflation uncertainty had negative and statistically significant effects on output both in high inflation and disinflation periods. Our findings imply importance of stabilising inflation at low levels for economic growth

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation uncertainty , Structural break , Output gap

Kaynakça

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