TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNE PARASAL TABAN VE ENFLASYON MODELİ

Yıl 2008, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 207 - 216, 01.07.2008

Cem Saatcioğlu Levent Korap

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için bir rezerv para talebi modeli oluşturulmaya çalışılmaktadır. Üçer aylık gözlemleri dikkate alan 1987Q1-2007Q3 inceleme dönemi için çağdaş çok değişkenli eş-bütünleşim yöntemi kullanılarak elde ettiğimiz bulgular para talebinin reel gelir esnekliğinin birim değerden oldukça yüksek olduğunu göstermekte ve ekonomide reel gelir sürecindeki artışla ilgili olarak süregelmekte olan parasallaşma olgusunun varlığını ifade etmektedir. Reel para tutumları karşısındaki en önemli almaşık maliyet unsuru yerli paranın döviz kuru karşısındaki beklenen değer kaybı olarak gözükmektedir. Bu tür bir bulguysa iktisadi birimler parasal büyüklük tutumlarıyla ilgili güdülerini belirlerken ekonomide yerleşik para ikamesi olgusunun önemini ortya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, çalışmada elde edilen kritik bir bulgu para piyasası dengesizlik koşulları altında meydana gelen para talebi fazlası üzerine koşullandırılmış dinamik bir hata düzeltme modelini gereksiz kılacak bir şekilde yurtiçi enflasyonun para talebi değişken uzayında zayıf dışsal bir yapıya sahip olmasıdır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Para talebi , Enflasyon , Para ikamesi , Eş-bütünleşim

MODELING BASE MONEY DEMAND AND INFLATION FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Öz

In this paper, a reserve money demand model is tried to be constructed for the Turkish economy. Using contemporaneous multivariate co - integration methodology for the investigation period 1987Q1 - 2007Q3 of the quarterly observations, we find that the real income elasticity of money demand is highly greater than unity which means that there exists an ongoing monetization process with regard to the increases in the real income in the economy. The most important alternative cost against the real money holdings seems to be the expected depreciation rate of the domestic currency against the exchange rate. Such a finding reveals the importance of currency substitution phenomenon dominated in the economy when the economic agents determine the motives of demand for monetary balances. Furthermore, a critical finding estimated in the paper is that domestic inflation has a weakly exogenous characteristic in the money demand variable space which requires no dynamic error correction model constructed on domestic inflation as a function of the excess money demand taken place under the money market disequilibrium conditions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Money Demand, Inflation, Currency Substitution, Co - Integration

Kaynakça

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