TERS PARA İKAMESİ SÜRECİ VE DÖVİZ KURU OYNAKLIĞI: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 102 - 117, 01.01.2009

H. Mehmet Taşçı Burak Darıcı Erman Erbaykal

Öz

Teorik ve ampirik literatür, para ikamesinin döviz kurundaki oynaklığı ve bu oynaklığın da para talebini anlamlı düzeyde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, son dönemde, tersine dönmeye başlayan para ikamesinin döviz kuru oynaklığına ve bu oynaklığın da para talebi üzerine etkisinin olup olmadığının araştırılmasıdır. Çalışmada Güçlü Ekonomiye Geçiş Programı veri seti için başlangıç olarak alınmış ve 2001/04-2006/12 dönemini kapsayan aylık veri seti kullanılmıştır. Oynaklığın modellenmesinde E-GARCH ve para talebi denkleminde ise Pesaran vd. 2001 sınır testi yaklaşımı ile tahmin yapılmıştır. Teorik beklentiye uygun olarak, tahmin sonuçlarına göre inceleme döneminde, para ikamesinin tersine dönmesi döviz kuru oynaklığını azaltmıştır. Ayrıca, döviz kuru oynaklığındaki bu azalışın da ters para ikamesi sürecini hızlandırdığı para talebi modeli tahminiyle gösterilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ters Para İkamesi, Oynaklık, E-GARCH, ARDL, Türkiye

REVERSE CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION PROCESS AND EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY: THE TURKISH CASE

Öz

Theoretical and empirical literature shows that there is a significant relation between currency substitution and exchange rate volatility, and this volatility affects money demand significantly. This study examines the relation between reverse currency substitution and the volatility in exchange rate as well as the effects of this volatility on the demand for money. We used monthly data covering the period of 2001/04-2006/12, which started with the implementation of Program for Transition to a Strong Economy. Following the literature, we employed E-GARCH method in exchange rate volatility modeling and Pesaran et al 2001 bounds test approach in the estimation of money demand function. In accordance with the theoretical expectations, we found that with the increase in reverse currency substitution the exchange rate volatility decreased. Moreover, the decline in the volatility of exchange rate increased the money demand, i.e. accelerated the reverse currency substitution process

Anahtar Kelimeler

Reverse Currency Substıtutıon, Volatility, E-GARCH: ARDL, Turkey

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