BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

DEMOKRATİK REJİMLERDE POLİTİK PARASAL KONJONKTÜR HAREKETLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE EKONOMETRİK BİR İNCELEME

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 204 - 216, 01.07.2009

Öz

Demokratik rejimlerde politikacıların temel amacı, iktidarı elde etmek ya da görev sürelerini uzatmaktır. Söz konusu amacın gerçekleşmesi, önemli ölçüde seçmen tercihlerine bağlıdır. Bu durumun farkında olan siyasal iktidarlar, seçim öncesi dönemde seçmen tercihlerini kendi çıkarları doğrultusunda yönlendirmek üzere çok sayıda yönteme başvurabilirler. Para politikasının manipülasyonu söz konusu yöntemlerden biridir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de para politikasının manipüle edilip edilmediğini araştırmaktır. Çalışmada 1986 - 2005 dönemi esas alınmıştır. Söz konusu dönemde parasal büyüklüklere ilişkin veriler GARCH yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de esas alınan dönemde politik kaynaklı parasal konjonktür hareketlerinin varlığına işaret etmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • ABRAMS, B. A., IOSSIFOV, P. (2006). Does the Fed contribute to a political business cycle?, Public Choice, 129, 249 – 62.ss.
  • ALLEN, S. D. (1986). The Federal Reserve and the electoral cycle: Note, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 18, (1), 88-94.ss.
  • ALPANDA, S., HONIG, A. (2007). Political monetary cycles and a new de facto ranking of central bank independence, MPRA Paper, No:5898, 1-34.ss.
  • AMACHER, R. C. et al (1979). The political business cycle: A review of theoretical and empirical evidence, ACES Bulletin, 21, (3/4), 1-42.ss.
  • ASUTAY, M. (2005), Political monetary cycles: The political manipulation of monetary policy instruments and outcomes in Turkey, http://www.dur.ac.uk/john. ashworth/EPCS/Papers/Asutay.pdf (19.02.2008), 1-37.ss.
  • BASTONI, M. (2005). Does IMF induce political business cycles?, https://papyrus.bib. umontreal.ca/dspace/bitstream/1866/323/1/a1.1g1048.pdf ,1- 48.ss.
  • BHAR R., HAMORI, S. (2003). Alternative characterization of the volatility in the growth rate of real GDP, Japan and World Economy, 15, (2), 223 – 31.ss.
  • BLOCK, S. A., KAREN E. F., Singh S. (2003). Multiparty competition, founding elections and political business cycles in Africa, Journal of African Economies, 12, (3), 444 – 68.ss.
  • BOIX, C. (2000). Partisan governments, the international economy, and macroeconomic policies in advanced nations, 1960 – 1993, World Politics, 53, (1), 38-73.ss.
  • BOLLERSLEV, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-28.ss.
  • BOLLERSLEV, T., WOOLDRİGE J. (1992). Quasi maximum likelihood estimation of dynamic models with time varying covariance, Econometric Reviews, 11, 140- 75.ss.
  • CUKIERMAN, A., MELTZER A.H. (1986). A theory of ambiguity. credibility and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information, Econometrica, 54, 1099– 1128.ss.
  • ENDERS, W. (1995). Applied econometric time series, New York:John Wiley and Sons., 63-67.ss.
  • CARLSEN, F. (1998). Rational partisan theory: Empirical evidence for the United States, Southern Economic Journal, 65, 64- 82.ss.
  • DRAZEN, A., ESLAVA M. (2003). The political business cycle in Colombia on the national and regional level, Archivos De Economía, Repşblica de Colombia Departamento Nacional de Planeación Dirección de Estudios Ecónomicos, Documento:215, 1-28.ss.
  • DERİN, İ. (2002). Do political business cycles exist in Turkey, Thesis (Ph. D.), Claremont Graduate University.
  • ENGLE, R.F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation, Econometrica, 50, (4), 980-1000.ss.
  • ERDOĞAN, S. (2004). Politik konjonktür hareketleri teorisi perspektifi ile siyaset ekonomi ilişkileri, İstanbul: Değişim Yayınevi.
  • ERDOĞAN, S., BOZKURT H. (2004). Türkiye’de 1983-2003 döneminde enflasyon ile enflasyon belirsizliği ilişkisi, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 219, 66-67.ss.
  • ERGUN, M. (2000). Electoral political business cycles in emerging markets: Evidence from Turkey, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, 36, (6), 6-32.ss.
  • FRANZESE, R. J. (2002). Electoral and partisan cycles ın economic policies and outcomes, Annu. Rev. Polit.Sci., 5, 369-421.ss.
  • GRIER, K. B. (1989). On the existence of a political monetary cycle, American Journal of Political Cycle, 33, (2), 376 – 89.ss.
  • HALLERBERG, M., De SOUZA, L.V. (2000). The political business cycles of EU accession countries, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, TI 2000 – 085/2, 1- 34.ss.
  • HIBBS, D. A. (1994). The partisan model of macroeconomic cycles: More theory and evidence for the United States, Economics and Politics, 6, 1-23.ss.
  • HIBBS, D. A. (1977). Political parties and macroeconomic policy, The American Political Science Review, 71, (4), 1467-87.ss.
  • KONTANIKAS, A. (2004). Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the United Kingdom, evidence From GARCH modeling, Economic Modelling, 21, (3), 525- 43.ss.
  • LEERTOUWER, E., MAIER, P. (2001). Who creates political business cycles: should central banks be blamed?, European Journal of Political Economy, 17, 445-63.ss.
  • MAGLOIRE, F. S. (1997). Political monetary cycles and independence of the central bank in a Monetary Union: an empirical test for a BEAC frane zone member country, Journal of African Economies, 6, (1), 112 – 32. ss.
  • NORDHASUS, W.D., ALESINA, A., CHARLES, L. S. (1989), Alternative approaches to the political business cycle, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1989, (2), 1-68.ss.
  • PARK, J. H. (2003). The economy and political elections in Korea, A dissertation presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School, University of Missouri – Columbia.
  • SHUGHART, W. F. H., TOLLİSON, R.D. (1985). Legislation and political business cycles, Kyklos, 38, 43-59.ss.
  • SNOWDON, B., VANE, H.R. (1999). The new political macroeconomics: An interview with Alberto Alesina, The American Economist, 43, (1), 19-34.ss.
  • TELATAR, F. (2003). Political business cycle in the parliamentary systems: evidence from Turkey, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 39, (4), 24 – 39.ss.

POLITICAL MONETARY CYCLES IN DEMOCRATIC REGIMES: AN ECONOMETRIC INVESTIGATION ON TURKEY

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 204 - 216, 01.07.2009

Öz

The main objective of politicians in democratic regimes is to gain political power or to elongate the duration of their power. The realization of this objective is mostly depended upon the choices of the voters. The political powers who are aware of this situation, have many methods that they will use in order to direct the voters’ choices into the way of their own interest, prior to elections. The manipulation of monetary policy is one of these aforementioned methods. The purpose of this study, is to research if monetary policy is being manipulated or not in Turkey. The study has been based upon the period between the years 1986- 2004. In the aforementioned period, the data on monetary aggregates have been tested with the GARCH method. The findings point to the presence of political monetary cycle in the period taken into account in Turkey.

Kaynakça

  • ABRAMS, B. A., IOSSIFOV, P. (2006). Does the Fed contribute to a political business cycle?, Public Choice, 129, 249 – 62.ss.
  • ALLEN, S. D. (1986). The Federal Reserve and the electoral cycle: Note, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 18, (1), 88-94.ss.
  • ALPANDA, S., HONIG, A. (2007). Political monetary cycles and a new de facto ranking of central bank independence, MPRA Paper, No:5898, 1-34.ss.
  • AMACHER, R. C. et al (1979). The political business cycle: A review of theoretical and empirical evidence, ACES Bulletin, 21, (3/4), 1-42.ss.
  • ASUTAY, M. (2005), Political monetary cycles: The political manipulation of monetary policy instruments and outcomes in Turkey, http://www.dur.ac.uk/john. ashworth/EPCS/Papers/Asutay.pdf (19.02.2008), 1-37.ss.
  • BASTONI, M. (2005). Does IMF induce political business cycles?, https://papyrus.bib. umontreal.ca/dspace/bitstream/1866/323/1/a1.1g1048.pdf ,1- 48.ss.
  • BHAR R., HAMORI, S. (2003). Alternative characterization of the volatility in the growth rate of real GDP, Japan and World Economy, 15, (2), 223 – 31.ss.
  • BLOCK, S. A., KAREN E. F., Singh S. (2003). Multiparty competition, founding elections and political business cycles in Africa, Journal of African Economies, 12, (3), 444 – 68.ss.
  • BOIX, C. (2000). Partisan governments, the international economy, and macroeconomic policies in advanced nations, 1960 – 1993, World Politics, 53, (1), 38-73.ss.
  • BOLLERSLEV, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-28.ss.
  • BOLLERSLEV, T., WOOLDRİGE J. (1992). Quasi maximum likelihood estimation of dynamic models with time varying covariance, Econometric Reviews, 11, 140- 75.ss.
  • CUKIERMAN, A., MELTZER A.H. (1986). A theory of ambiguity. credibility and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information, Econometrica, 54, 1099– 1128.ss.
  • ENDERS, W. (1995). Applied econometric time series, New York:John Wiley and Sons., 63-67.ss.
  • CARLSEN, F. (1998). Rational partisan theory: Empirical evidence for the United States, Southern Economic Journal, 65, 64- 82.ss.
  • DRAZEN, A., ESLAVA M. (2003). The political business cycle in Colombia on the national and regional level, Archivos De Economía, Repşblica de Colombia Departamento Nacional de Planeación Dirección de Estudios Ecónomicos, Documento:215, 1-28.ss.
  • DERİN, İ. (2002). Do political business cycles exist in Turkey, Thesis (Ph. D.), Claremont Graduate University.
  • ENGLE, R.F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation, Econometrica, 50, (4), 980-1000.ss.
  • ERDOĞAN, S. (2004). Politik konjonktür hareketleri teorisi perspektifi ile siyaset ekonomi ilişkileri, İstanbul: Değişim Yayınevi.
  • ERDOĞAN, S., BOZKURT H. (2004). Türkiye’de 1983-2003 döneminde enflasyon ile enflasyon belirsizliği ilişkisi, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 219, 66-67.ss.
  • ERGUN, M. (2000). Electoral political business cycles in emerging markets: Evidence from Turkey, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, 36, (6), 6-32.ss.
  • FRANZESE, R. J. (2002). Electoral and partisan cycles ın economic policies and outcomes, Annu. Rev. Polit.Sci., 5, 369-421.ss.
  • GRIER, K. B. (1989). On the existence of a political monetary cycle, American Journal of Political Cycle, 33, (2), 376 – 89.ss.
  • HALLERBERG, M., De SOUZA, L.V. (2000). The political business cycles of EU accession countries, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, TI 2000 – 085/2, 1- 34.ss.
  • HIBBS, D. A. (1994). The partisan model of macroeconomic cycles: More theory and evidence for the United States, Economics and Politics, 6, 1-23.ss.
  • HIBBS, D. A. (1977). Political parties and macroeconomic policy, The American Political Science Review, 71, (4), 1467-87.ss.
  • KONTANIKAS, A. (2004). Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the United Kingdom, evidence From GARCH modeling, Economic Modelling, 21, (3), 525- 43.ss.
  • LEERTOUWER, E., MAIER, P. (2001). Who creates political business cycles: should central banks be blamed?, European Journal of Political Economy, 17, 445-63.ss.
  • MAGLOIRE, F. S. (1997). Political monetary cycles and independence of the central bank in a Monetary Union: an empirical test for a BEAC frane zone member country, Journal of African Economies, 6, (1), 112 – 32. ss.
  • NORDHASUS, W.D., ALESINA, A., CHARLES, L. S. (1989), Alternative approaches to the political business cycle, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1989, (2), 1-68.ss.
  • PARK, J. H. (2003). The economy and political elections in Korea, A dissertation presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School, University of Missouri – Columbia.
  • SHUGHART, W. F. H., TOLLİSON, R.D. (1985). Legislation and political business cycles, Kyklos, 38, 43-59.ss.
  • SNOWDON, B., VANE, H.R. (1999). The new political macroeconomics: An interview with Alberto Alesina, The American Economist, 43, (1), 19-34.ss.
  • TELATAR, F. (2003). Political business cycle in the parliamentary systems: evidence from Turkey, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 39, (4), 24 – 39.ss.
Toplam 33 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Seyfettin Erdoğan Bu kişi benim

Hilal Bozkurt Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Temmuz 2009
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2009 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Erdoğan, S., & Bozkurt, H. (2009). DEMOKRATİK REJİMLERDE POLİTİK PARASAL KONJONKTÜR HAREKETLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE EKONOMETRİK BİR İNCELEME. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 10(2), 204-216.