DIŞA AÇIKLIK VE ENFLASYON: ZAMAN SERİLERİ VERİLERİ İLE BİR KANIT

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 313 - 322, 01.07.2010

Muhammad Zakarıa

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1947–2007 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılarak Pakistan’da dış ticaret alanında dışa açıklık ile enflasyon arasındaki ilişki ampirik olarak incelenmiştir. Ampirik analiz sonuçları, Pakistan’da dışa açıklık ile enflasyon arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, enflasyonu belirleyen diğer değişkenlerden ve duyarlılık analizlerinden etkilenmemektedir. Esnek kambiyo rejimi ve gelişme düzeyindeki artış yurtiçi enflasyonu artırmaktadır. Diğer kontrol değişkenleri olan para arzı, mali açık, döviz kurunun değer yitirmesi, dış enflasyon, ticaret haddi, dış borç ve demokrasi enflasyonu beklenen yönde anlamlı bir şekilde etkilemektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dışa Açıklık, Enflasyon, Kambiyo Rejimi

OPENNESS AND INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM TIME SERIES DATA

Öz

The paper empirically examines relationship between trade openness and inflation in Pakistan using annual time-series data for the period 1947 to 2007. The empirical analysis shows that a positive relation holds between trade openness and inflation in Pakistan. The results are robust to controlling for other inflation determining variables and performing sensitivity analysis. Flexible exchange rate regime and an increase in the level of development inflate domestic inflation. Other control variables i.e. money supply, fiscal deficit, exchange rate depreciations, foreign inflation, terms of trade, foreign debt and democracy significantly affect inflation in the expected directions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Openness, Inflation, Exchange Rate Regime

Kaynakça

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