PAKİSTAN’DA DIŞA AÇIKLIK İLE DIŞ BORÇ ARASINDA KARŞILIKLI BAĞLANTI

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1, 161 - 170, 01.01.2012

Muhammad Zakarıa

Öz

Makale, 1972'den 2010'a dek olan dönem için çeyrek dönem verileri kullanarak, Pakistan'daki dış ticaret serbestliğinin dış borç üzerine olan etkisini ampirik olarak incelemektedir. Modeldeki potansiyel içsellik probleminin üstesinden gelmek için Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi GMM tahmin tekniği kullanılmıştır. Çalışma, dış ticaret açıklığının dış borç üzerinde anlamlı bir pozitif etkisi olduğunu ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Sonuçlar farklı model tanımlamalarına göre robust bulunmuştur. Sonuçlar ayrıca dış borcun belirlenmesinde diğer değişkenlerin rolünün de altını çizer. Döviz rezervleri ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların borç üzerine anlamlı bir negatif etkisi varken, ticaret hadleri, mali açık ve enflasyon dış borcu anlamlı bir şekilde pozitif olarak etkiler

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dış Borç, Dışa Açıklık, GMM

INTERLINKAGES BETWEEN OPENNESS AND FOREIGN DEBT IN PAKISTAN

Öz

The paper empirically studies the impact of trade openness on foreign debt in Pakistan using quarterly data for the period 1972 to 2010. Generalized method of Moments GMM estimation technique is applied to overcome the potential endogeneity problem in the model. The study reveals a significant positive effect of trade openness on foreign debt. The results are robust to different model specifications. The results also highlight the role of other variables in determining external debt. Terms of trade, fiscal deficit and inflation significantly positively affect foreign debt; while foreign Exchange reserves and foreign direct investment have significant negative impacts on foreign trade.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign Debt, Openness, GMM

Kaynakça

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