FİNANSAL SİSTEMİN İTHALAT TALEBİ ÜZERİNDEKİ UZUN DÖNEM ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 173 - 188, 01.07.2012

Uğur Adıgüzel Tayfur Bayat Selim Kayhan

Öz

Çalışmada finansal sistemin uzun dönemde ithalat talebi üzerindeki etkisini görmek amacıyla, finansal sistem bileşenleri ithalat talebi fonksiyonu içerisine yerleştirilmiştir. Bununla birlikte eleştiriler doğrultusunda ithalat talep fonksiyonu içerisinde gayri safi yurt içi hasıla yerine ulusal nakit akışı değişkeni kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada finansal sisteme ait bir değişkenin uzun dönemde ithalat talebi üzerindeki etkilerini görmek amacıyla uzun dönem yapısal VAR metodolojisi kullanılmıştır. Kullanılan veriler "Güçlü Ekonomiye Geçiş Programı"nın uygulanmaya başladığı tarihten itibaren günümüze sekiz yıllık dönemi kapsamaktadır. Çalışma sonucunda ulusal nakit akışının ithalat talebi üzerinde pozitif bir etkisinin bulunduğu, göreceli fiyatların ise ithalat talebini beklendiği gibi uzun dönemde pozitif etkilediği görülmüştür. Finansal sisteme ait değişkenlerden bazılarının ise ithalat talebi üzerinde anlamlı etkilerinin olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Sonuçlar politika yapıcılarının politika kararlarında bu etkileşimi dikkate almaları gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İthalat Talebi, Uzun Dönem Yapısal VAR, Finansal Sistem

LONG TERM IMPACT OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM ON IMPORT DEMAND FOR TURKEY

Öz

In this study, we aim to analyze whether a shock in a component of the financial system affect import demand on the long run. In this regard, we include components of financial system into the import demand function and employ long run SVAR method. We analyze the eight period from the beginning of “Transition Program for Strengthening the Turkish Economy”. We conclude that import demand responses affect positively a national cash flow shock. Relative prices shock affects import demand positively, as expected. There is a number of variables belonging to a financial system which induces import demand. According to results, the financial system influences the import demand and policymakers have to take into account the interaction between import demand and financial system in the policy-making process.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Import Demand, Long-Rrun Structural VAR, Financial System

Kaynakça

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