BORSA İSTANBUL’DA PSİKOLOJİK BARİYERİN TEST EDİLMESİ

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2, 193 - 200, 01.07.2014

Murat Çinko

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı Borsa İstanbul’da “psikolojik bariyer”in var olup olmadığının test edilmesidir. Psikolojik bariyer araştırması daha önce Borsa İstanbul için yapılmamış olması nedeniyle önemlidir. Çalışmada 03 Nisan 2003 ile 12 Nisan 2013 tarihleri arasındaki 2,523 günlük kapanış değeri incelenmiştir. Bu tarihler arasındaki borsa endeksi hep beş basamaklı olması nedeniyle seçilmiştir. Ki- Kare uyum testi ve regresyon analizleri sonucunda binler basamağında Borsa İstanbul için psikolojik bariyer olduğu bulunmuştur. Çalışmada veri kümesi döngüsel olarak simüle edilmiş olup sonuçlar yüzdesel olarak ilk sonuçlarla paralellik sergilemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Psikolojik Bariyer, Etkin Piyasa Teorisi, Borsa İstanbul

TESTING THE PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER IN BORSA ISTANBUL

Öz

The aim of the study is to find out the existence of “psychological barriers” in Borsa Istanbul. The importance of this study is that Psychological Barrier has never been tested in Borsa Istanbul. The data set consists of 2523 daily closing index values between 03 April 2003 to 12 April 2013. The reason of choosing these dates is that all index values have five digits. Chi - Square goodness of fit test and regression analysis indicate that there exists a psychological barrier at thousands level but not for the other digits. Cyclical simulation is done and results are interpreted as a percentage; the result of the simulation supports the findings in the original data set

Anahtar Kelimeler

Psychological Barriers, Market Efficiency Theory, Borsa Istanbul

Kaynakça

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