TURİZME DAYALI BÜYÜME HİPOTEZİ TÜRKİYE İÇİN GEÇERLİ Mİ?

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 2, 165 - 178, 01.07.2015

Harun Terzi

Öz

Bu çalışmada uluslararası turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi 1963-2013 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisi için incelenmiştir. Araştırmada kullanılan yıllık zaman serileri Dünya Kalkınma Göstergeleri’nden WDI ve Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu’ndan TÜİK derlenmiştir. Nedenselliği test etmek amacıyla bu çalışmada standart Granger nedensellik, kısıtsız ve Toda Yamamoto VAR nedensellik gibi üç farklı nedensellik analizi kullanılmıştır. Tüm testler nedenselliğin güçlü bir şekilde turizm gelirlerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru, pozitif ve tek yönlü olduğunu; ayrıca ET ve VA analizleri iki değişkenin birbirlerini karşılıklı olarak etkilediklerini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmanın bulguları, turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turizm Geliri, Ekonomik Büyüme, Nedensellik, VAR Analizi, Türkiye

IS THE TOURISM-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS TLGH VALID FOR TURKEY?

Öz

This study focuses on the causality relationship between international tourism revenue and economic growth in the Turkish economy during the period 1963-2013. Yearly time series data were obtained from the World Data Indicators and the Turkish Statistical Institute. Three different methodologies were employed to test the causality: pairwise Granger causality, unrestricted VAR and Toda-Yamamoto VAR analysis. All tests yielded strong evidence for unidirectional positive significant causality running from tourism revenue to economic growth. Additionally, IR and VD analyses also showed that the two variables affect each other. The findings of this study support the view that tourism-led growth hypothesis is valid for the Turkish economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tourism Revenue, Economic Growth, Causality, VAR Analysis, Turkey

Kaynakça

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