TÜRKİYE’DE PETROL TÜKETİMİNİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2, 225 - 240, 01.07.2016

Harun Terzi Uğur Korkut Pata

Öz

Bu çalışmada 1974-2014 dönemi yıllık verilerle Türkiye ekonomisi için ekonomik büyüme ile petrol tüketimi arasındaki ilişkiler kısa dönem nedensellik testleri, uzun dönem Engle-Granger ve Gregory-Hansen eşbütünleşme yöntemleri ile incelenmiştir. Ampirik sonuçlar değişkenler arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olmadığını, ancak UVAR, TYVAR ve Hsiao’nun Granger nedensellik testleri kısa dönemde petrol tüketiminden ekonomik büyümeye doğru pozitif, tek yönlü bir nedenselliğin olduğunu, petrol tüketimi arttıkça büyüme hızının arttığını göstermektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji Tüketimi, Petrol, Ekonomik Büyüme, VAR Analizi, Türkiye

THE EFFECT OF OIL CONSUMPTION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Öz

This study investigates the causality link between economic growth and oil consumption using annual data over the years of 1974-2014 by using causality tests and the Engle-Granger and Gregory-Hansen co-integration models for the Turkish economy. The empirical findings support the view that there is no long term co-integration between the level of economic growth and oil consumption level. However, the UVAR, TYVAR and Hsiao’s Granger causality tests in the short term show that a positive one-way causality is going from the oil consumption level to the economic growth rate, and oil consumption level stimulates economic growth rate.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy Consumption, Oil, Economic Growth, VAR Analysis, Turkey

Kaynakça

• Aktas, C., & Yilmaz, V. (2008). Causal relationship between economic growth and oil consumption in Turkey. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15(1), 45-55.
• Ageel, A., & Butt, M. S. (2001). The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan. Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8(2), 101-110.
• Bhattacharya, M., & Bhattacharya, S. N. (2014). Economic growth and energy consumption nexus in developing world: The case of China and India. Journal of Applied Economics & Business Research, 4 (3), 150-167.
• Bhusal, T. P. (2010). Econometric analysis of economic growth and oil consumption in Nepal. Economic Journal of Development Issues, 11, 135-143.
• Booth, G. G., & Ciner, C. (2005). German dominance in the European monetary system: A reprise using robust wald tests. Applied Economics Letters, 12(8), 463-466.
• British Petroleum. (2015). Statistical review of world energy. Retrieved from http://www.bp .com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-stati of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf stical-review
• Davidson, R., & Mackinnon, J. G. (2001). Estimation and inference in econometrics., New York: Oxford University Press.
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for an autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
• Difiglio, C. (2014). Oil, economic growth and strategic petroleum stocks. Energy Strategy Reviews, 5, 48-58.
• Dolado, J. J., & Lutkepohl, H. (1996). Making wald test work for co-integrated VAR systems. Econometric Theory, 15(4), 369-386.
• EIA. (2013). Turkey-US energy information administration report. Retrieved from https://www .iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/2013_Turkey_Country_Chapterfinal_with _last_page.pdf
• EIA. (2015). Turkey-US energy information administration report. Retrieved from https://www .eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/Turkey/turkey.pdf
• Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55(2), 251-276.
• Fuinhas, J. A., & Marques, A. C. (2012). An ARDL approach to the oil and growth nexus: Portuguese evidence. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy, 7(3), 282- 291.
• Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-based tests for co-integration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
• Hsiao, C. (1981). Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection. Journal of Monetary Economics, 7 (1), 85-106.
• Kocaslan, G., & Yilanci, V. (2010). Economic growth and oil consumption: Evidence from Turkey. Energy Studies Review, 17(1), 26-32.
• Lach, L. (2015). Oil usage, gas consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Poland. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 10(3), 223-232.
• Lee, C. C., & Chang, C.-P. (2005). Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: Evidence from Taiwan. Energy Economics. 27(6), 857-872.
• Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
• Lumsdaine, R. L., & Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-218.
• Nasiru, I., Usman, H. M., & Saidu, A. I. (2014). Economic growth and oil consumption: Evidence from Nigeria. Bulletin of Energy Economics, 2(4), 106-112.
• Ozata, E. (2014). Sustainability of current account deficit with high oil prices: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Economic Sciences, 3(2), 71-88.
• Park, S.-H., & Yoo, S.-H. (2014). The dynamics of economic growth and oil consumption in Malaysia. Energy Policy, 66, 218-223.
• Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361-1401.
• Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for unit roots in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
• Sanli, F. B., & Tuna, K. (2014). Türkiye’de petrol tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin analizi. Maliye Finans Yazıları, 102(28), 43-58.
• Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48 (1), 1-48.
• Stambuli, B. B. (2014). Economic growth and oil consumption nexus in Tanzania co-integration causality analysis. International Journal of Academic Research in Economic and Management Sciences, 3(2), 113-123.
• TPAO. (2015). Ham petrol ve doğal gaz sektör raporu. Retrieved from http://www.enerji.gov .tr/file/?path=root%2f1%2fdocuments%2fsekt%c3%b6r+raporu%2fhp_dg_sektor_rpr.pdf
• Yang, H.-Y. (2000). A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan. Energy Economics, 22(3), 309-317.
• Yoo, S. H. (2006). Economic growth and oil consumption: Evidence from Korea. Energy Sources, 1(3), 235-243.
• Yuan, J. H., Kang, J.-G., Zhao, C.-H., & Hu, Z. G. (2008). Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels. Energy Economics, 30(6), 3077-3094.
• Zou, G. L., & Chau, K. W. (2006). Short-and long-run effects between economic growth and oil consumption in China. Energy Policy, 34(18), 3644-3655.