Yatırımın Marjinal Etkinliğinde Meydana Gelen Şokların Tüketim Harcamalarının Konjonktür Dalgaları Üzerindeki Etkisi

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 2, 43 - 53, 01.07.2018

Bekir Tamer Gökalp

Öz

Konjonktür dalgalarının temel belirleyicisinin ne olduğuna yönelik çalışma sayısı son yıllarda daha fazla artış göstermiştir. Son dönemde yapılan çalışmaların odaklandığı temel değişken yatırımların marjinal etkinliğinde meydana gelen şoklar olmuştur. Her ne kadar teorik çalışmalar tüketim ve yatırım harcamalarının birbiriyle aynı yönde hareket ettiklerini iddia etseler de bunun ekonomik modellere yansıtılması uzun zaman almıştır. Bu çalışmada tüketicilerin, harcanabilir gelirlerini dönem içinde tüketenler ve sermaye ve finans piyasalarına ulaşabilme kabiliyetine sahip olanlar biçiminde ikiye ayrıldıkları varsayılarak yatırımın marjinal etkinliğinde meydana gelen şokların tüketim ve yatırım harcamaları üzerindeki etkisi modellenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular tüketim ve yatırım harcamalarının, teoriyle paralel olarak Türkiye özelinde de birbiriyle aynı yönde hareket ettiğini ve yatırımın marjinal etkinliğinin ekonomik konjonktür üzerinde belirleyici role sahip olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yatırım şokları, Tüketim harcamaları, Konjonktür dalgaları, Nominal Rijitlikler

The Effect of the Shocks of Marginal Efficiency of Investment to the Cycles of Consumption Expecditures

Öz

The number of studies on what the main determinants of conjuncture waves are has increased in recent years. Recent studies have focused on the shocks of the marginal efficiency of investment as main determinant. Although the theoretical studies claim that consumption and investment expenditures co-move positively, it has taken a long time to reflect this explanation in economic models. In this study, the effects of shocks of marginal efficiency of investment on consumption and investment expenditures are modelled with the assumption of that consumers are divided as the people who spent their disposable income in the current period and the people who have ability to access capital and financial markets. The findings indicate that consumption and investment expenditures co-move together in parallel with the theory in Turkey and that the marginal efficiency of the investment has a decisive role on the economic conjuncture

Anahtar Kelimeler

Investment shocks, Consumption expenditures, Conjuncture fluctuations, Nominal rigidities

Kaynakça

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