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Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkış Stratejisi Bağlamında İnovasyonun Etkisinin Ampirik Analizler ile Test Edilmesi

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 51 - 68, 01.07.2019

Öz

Bu çalışmada, orta gelir tuzağından çıkış amacıyla inovasyonun etkisinin ölçülmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, seçilen ülkeler Robertson ve Ye 2013 ’nin yaklaşımına göre, orta gelir tuzağında olan MIT-Brezilya, Meksika, Malezya ve Türkiye ve orta gelir tuzağından kaçan NMIT-Güney Kore, Portekiz, Singapur ve Yunanistan ülkeler olmak üzere iki gruba ayrılmıştır. Yapılan çalışmada, inovasyonun etkisinin tespit edilmesi amacıyla, PCA yöntemi ile hesaplanan ve 27 farklı inovasyon göstergesinden oluşan “Hesaplanan İnovasyon Endeksi- HII ” ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki II. Nesil Panel Veri Analiz yöntemi ile test edilmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, NMIT ülkelerinin ekonomik büyümeleri, HII’den, MIT grubundaki ülkelere göre çok daha yüksek oranda etkilenmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Age´nor, PR, Canuto, O & Jelenic, M. (2012). Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps. Economic Premise, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network (PREM), The World Bank, 98
  • Aiyar, M. S., Duval, M. R. A., Puy, M. D., Wu, M. Y., & Zhang, M. L. (2013). Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap. International Monetary Fund, (13/71).
  • Alkan, Ö. (2008). Temel Bileşenler Analizi ve Bir uygulama Örneği. Atatürk Üniversitesi, Yüksek Lisans Tezi
  • Aoki, M. (2011).The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan. ADBI Working Paper Series, 340
  • Beltrami, E. (1873). Sulle funzioni bilineari, Giornale di Mathematiche di Battaglini, 11, 98– 106
  • Bond, S., & Eberhardt, M. (2013). Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models. Nuffield College, University of Oxford, mimeo.
  • Bozkurt, E., Bedir, S., Özdemir, D., & Çakmak, E. (2014). Orta gelir tuzağı ve Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 167, 22-39.
  • Breusch, T. S. & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Bulman, D., Eden, M., & Nguyen, H. (2014). Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High-Income Growth-Is There a Middle Income Trap? Policy Research Working Paper. 7104, 1-36
  • Cai, F. (2012). Is There a Middle-income Trap? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China. China & World Economy, 20 (1), ss.49-61.
  • Carnovale, M. (2012), Developing Countries and the Middle-Income Trap: Predetermined to Fall?, New York University.
  • Cherif, R. & Hasanov, F. (2015). The Leap of the Tiger: How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap. IMF Working Paper 15/131, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D. C.
  • Dewitte, R. (2014). Middle Income Trap and Export Sophistication: Assessment and Economic Policy Implications. Unpublished Master Thesis, Ghent: Ghent University Faculty of Economic and Business Administration.
  • Doner, R. F. & Schneider B. R. (2016). The Middle-Income Trap: More Politics than Economics. World Politics, 68(4), 608– 644. Dünya Bankası Veritabanı (2016), World Development Indicators, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development- indicators (Erişim Tarihi, 10.10.2017)
  • Egawa, A. (2013). Will Income Inequality Cause a Middle-income Trap in Asia? 797, Bruegel.
  • Eichengreen, B. & Park, D. ve Shin, K. (2011). When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China, NBER Working Paper Series, 16919, National Bureau of Economic Reseaarch, March.
  • Eichengreen, B. & Park, D. ve Shin, K. (2013). Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap, NBER Working Paper Series, 18673, National Bureau of Economic Reseaarch, January.
  • Feenstra, R.C., Inklaar R. & Timmer M.P. (2015). The Next Generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182
  • Felipe, J., Abdon, A., & Kumar, U. (2012). Tracking the middle-income trap: What is it, who is in it, and why?. Levy Economics Institute Working Paper, 715.
  • Flaaen, A., Ghani, E. & Mishra, S. (2013). How to Avoid Middle Income Traps? Evidence from Malaysia. Policy Research Working Paper Series, 6427, World Bank.
  • Foxley, A. & Sossdorf, F. (2011). Making the Transition from Middle-Income to Advanced Economies. Carnegie Endowment, The Carnegie Papers.
  • Garrett, G. (2004). Globalization’s missing middle. Foreign Affairs, 83(6), 84–96.
  • Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J. P., & Westerlund, J. (2016). Error correction testing in panels with common stochastic trends. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6), 982-1004.
  • Gill, I. S. & Kharas, H. (2007). An East Asian Renaissance – Ideas for Economic Growth. Washington, DC: World Bank.
  • Gill, I. S. & Kharas. H. (2015). The Middle-Income Trap Turns Ten. Policy Research Working Paper, 7403. Washington, D.C. World Bank.
  • Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2016). The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey. Comparative Economic Studies, 58(4), 507-538.
  • Hartwell, C. (2013). The Growth Elixir: Escaping the Middle Income Trap in Emerging Market. Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Brief 13-08.
  • Hotelling, H. (1933). Analysis of a complex of statistical variables into principal components. Journal of educational psychology, 24(6), 417.
  • Im, F.G. & Rosenblatt, D. (2013) Middle-Income Traps – A Conceptual and Empirical Survey. Policy Research Working Paper, 6594, World Bank
  • Islam, S. N. (2015). Will Inequality Lead China to the Middle Income Trap?. DESA Working Paper N. 142..
  • Jordan, C. (1874). Mémoire sur les formes bilinéaires. Journal de mathématiques pures et appliquées, 19, 35-54.
  • Jolliffe, I.T. (2004). Principal Component Analysis, Second Edition, New York, Springer.
  • Jimenez, E., Nguyen, V. & Patrinos, H. A. (2012). Stuck in the Middle? Human Capital Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia and Thailand. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6283.
  • Lin, J.Y. & Treichel, V. (2012). Learning from China’s Rise to Escape the Middle Income Trap A New Sctructural Economics Approach to Latin America. World Bank Working
  • Luiz, J. M. (2016). The Political of Economy Middle Income Traps: Is South Africa in A Long-run Growth Trap? The Path to Bounded Populism. South African Journal of Economics, 86 (1),3-19
  • Ohno, K. (2009). Avoiding the middle-income trap: renovating industrial policy formulation in Vietnam. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 26(1), 25-43.
  • Pearson, K. (1901). Principal components analysis. The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, 6(2), 559.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229; IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias‐adjusted LM test of error cross‐section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127
  • Pessoa, A. (2007). Innovation and Economic Growth: What is the actual importance of R&D? Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  • Petrariu, I. R., Bumbac, R., & Ciobanu, R. (2013). Innovation: a path to competitiveness and economic growth. The case of CEE countries. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 20(5).
  • Preisendorfer, R. W., Mobley, C. D., & Barnett, T. P. (1988). The principal discriminant method of prediction: Theory and evaluation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 93(D9), 10815-10830.
  • PRS Grup, (2017), CountryData Online, https://epub.prsgroup.com/country- database/country-data
  • Robertson, P. E. ve Ye, L. (2013). On the Existence of a Middle Income Trap, University of Western Australia Economics Discussion Paper 13.12.
  • Tatoğlu, F. (2017). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi, Beta Yayınevi, 1
  • Tho, T. V. (2013). The middle-income trap: Issues for members of the Association of Southeast Asian nations. Asian Development Bank Institute Working Paper, 421.
  • Wang, Y. (2014). Will China Escape the Middle-income Trap? A Politico-economic Theory of Growth and State Capitalism. University of Zurich, Job Market Paper
  • Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 69(6), 709-748.
  • Westmore, B. (2013). Innovation and growth: Considerations for public policy. Review of Economics and Institutions, 4(3), 50.
  • Woo, W.T. (2012). China Meets the Middle-Income Trap: The Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4), 313-336.
  • Yamazawa N. (2013). The Middle-Income Trap Verified by Data – The Exit Key is Developing Institutions. Asia Research Report, Japan Center for Economic Research, 5.
  • Yeldan, E., Taşçı, K., Voyvoda, E., & Özsan, M. E. (2012). Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkış: Hangi Türkiye. TÜRKONFED, İstanbul.
  • Yılmaz, G. (2016). Essays On The Middle Income Trap With Specıal Emphasis On Turkey, Doktora Tezi, Ortadoğu Teknik Üniversitesi
  • Yıldız, A. (2015). Orta Gelir Tuzağı Ve Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkış Stratejileri. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 25, Sayı: 2, Sayfa: 155-170
  • Zhang, L., Yi, H., Luo, R., Liu, C. & Rozelle, S. (2013). The Human Capital Roots of the Middle Income Trap: The Case of China. Agricultural Economics0(0),1-12.

Testing the Effects of Innovation with Empirical Analysis in the Context of Middle Income Trap Strategy

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 51 - 68, 01.07.2019

Öz

This study aims to measure the effect of innovation to avoid the middle income trap. In this framework, we divided countries into two groups following the work of Robertson and Ye 2013 : countries in middle income trap MIT- Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia and Turkey and countries avoid the middle income trap NMITSouth Korea, Portugal, Singapore and Greece . The relationship between "Calculated Innovation Index HII " calculated by PCA method and consisting of 27 different innovation indicators and economic growth examined employing Second Generation Panel Data Method. The results show that NMIT countries are more affected by HII than countries in MIT

Kaynakça

  • Age´nor, PR, Canuto, O & Jelenic, M. (2012). Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps. Economic Premise, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network (PREM), The World Bank, 98
  • Aiyar, M. S., Duval, M. R. A., Puy, M. D., Wu, M. Y., & Zhang, M. L. (2013). Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap. International Monetary Fund, (13/71).
  • Alkan, Ö. (2008). Temel Bileşenler Analizi ve Bir uygulama Örneği. Atatürk Üniversitesi, Yüksek Lisans Tezi
  • Aoki, M. (2011).The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan. ADBI Working Paper Series, 340
  • Beltrami, E. (1873). Sulle funzioni bilineari, Giornale di Mathematiche di Battaglini, 11, 98– 106
  • Bond, S., & Eberhardt, M. (2013). Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models. Nuffield College, University of Oxford, mimeo.
  • Bozkurt, E., Bedir, S., Özdemir, D., & Çakmak, E. (2014). Orta gelir tuzağı ve Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 167, 22-39.
  • Breusch, T. S. & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Bulman, D., Eden, M., & Nguyen, H. (2014). Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High-Income Growth-Is There a Middle Income Trap? Policy Research Working Paper. 7104, 1-36
  • Cai, F. (2012). Is There a Middle-income Trap? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China. China & World Economy, 20 (1), ss.49-61.
  • Carnovale, M. (2012), Developing Countries and the Middle-Income Trap: Predetermined to Fall?, New York University.
  • Cherif, R. & Hasanov, F. (2015). The Leap of the Tiger: How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap. IMF Working Paper 15/131, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D. C.
  • Dewitte, R. (2014). Middle Income Trap and Export Sophistication: Assessment and Economic Policy Implications. Unpublished Master Thesis, Ghent: Ghent University Faculty of Economic and Business Administration.
  • Doner, R. F. & Schneider B. R. (2016). The Middle-Income Trap: More Politics than Economics. World Politics, 68(4), 608– 644. Dünya Bankası Veritabanı (2016), World Development Indicators, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development- indicators (Erişim Tarihi, 10.10.2017)
  • Egawa, A. (2013). Will Income Inequality Cause a Middle-income Trap in Asia? 797, Bruegel.
  • Eichengreen, B. & Park, D. ve Shin, K. (2011). When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China, NBER Working Paper Series, 16919, National Bureau of Economic Reseaarch, March.
  • Eichengreen, B. & Park, D. ve Shin, K. (2013). Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap, NBER Working Paper Series, 18673, National Bureau of Economic Reseaarch, January.
  • Feenstra, R.C., Inklaar R. & Timmer M.P. (2015). The Next Generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182
  • Felipe, J., Abdon, A., & Kumar, U. (2012). Tracking the middle-income trap: What is it, who is in it, and why?. Levy Economics Institute Working Paper, 715.
  • Flaaen, A., Ghani, E. & Mishra, S. (2013). How to Avoid Middle Income Traps? Evidence from Malaysia. Policy Research Working Paper Series, 6427, World Bank.
  • Foxley, A. & Sossdorf, F. (2011). Making the Transition from Middle-Income to Advanced Economies. Carnegie Endowment, The Carnegie Papers.
  • Garrett, G. (2004). Globalization’s missing middle. Foreign Affairs, 83(6), 84–96.
  • Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J. P., & Westerlund, J. (2016). Error correction testing in panels with common stochastic trends. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6), 982-1004.
  • Gill, I. S. & Kharas, H. (2007). An East Asian Renaissance – Ideas for Economic Growth. Washington, DC: World Bank.
  • Gill, I. S. & Kharas. H. (2015). The Middle-Income Trap Turns Ten. Policy Research Working Paper, 7403. Washington, D.C. World Bank.
  • Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2016). The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey. Comparative Economic Studies, 58(4), 507-538.
  • Hartwell, C. (2013). The Growth Elixir: Escaping the Middle Income Trap in Emerging Market. Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Brief 13-08.
  • Hotelling, H. (1933). Analysis of a complex of statistical variables into principal components. Journal of educational psychology, 24(6), 417.
  • Im, F.G. & Rosenblatt, D. (2013) Middle-Income Traps – A Conceptual and Empirical Survey. Policy Research Working Paper, 6594, World Bank
  • Islam, S. N. (2015). Will Inequality Lead China to the Middle Income Trap?. DESA Working Paper N. 142..
  • Jordan, C. (1874). Mémoire sur les formes bilinéaires. Journal de mathématiques pures et appliquées, 19, 35-54.
  • Jolliffe, I.T. (2004). Principal Component Analysis, Second Edition, New York, Springer.
  • Jimenez, E., Nguyen, V. & Patrinos, H. A. (2012). Stuck in the Middle? Human Capital Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia and Thailand. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6283.
  • Lin, J.Y. & Treichel, V. (2012). Learning from China’s Rise to Escape the Middle Income Trap A New Sctructural Economics Approach to Latin America. World Bank Working
  • Luiz, J. M. (2016). The Political of Economy Middle Income Traps: Is South Africa in A Long-run Growth Trap? The Path to Bounded Populism. South African Journal of Economics, 86 (1),3-19
  • Ohno, K. (2009). Avoiding the middle-income trap: renovating industrial policy formulation in Vietnam. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 26(1), 25-43.
  • Pearson, K. (1901). Principal components analysis. The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, 6(2), 559.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229; IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias‐adjusted LM test of error cross‐section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127
  • Pessoa, A. (2007). Innovation and Economic Growth: What is the actual importance of R&D? Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  • Petrariu, I. R., Bumbac, R., & Ciobanu, R. (2013). Innovation: a path to competitiveness and economic growth. The case of CEE countries. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 20(5).
  • Preisendorfer, R. W., Mobley, C. D., & Barnett, T. P. (1988). The principal discriminant method of prediction: Theory and evaluation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 93(D9), 10815-10830.
  • PRS Grup, (2017), CountryData Online, https://epub.prsgroup.com/country- database/country-data
  • Robertson, P. E. ve Ye, L. (2013). On the Existence of a Middle Income Trap, University of Western Australia Economics Discussion Paper 13.12.
  • Tatoğlu, F. (2017). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi, Beta Yayınevi, 1
  • Tho, T. V. (2013). The middle-income trap: Issues for members of the Association of Southeast Asian nations. Asian Development Bank Institute Working Paper, 421.
  • Wang, Y. (2014). Will China Escape the Middle-income Trap? A Politico-economic Theory of Growth and State Capitalism. University of Zurich, Job Market Paper
  • Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 69(6), 709-748.
  • Westmore, B. (2013). Innovation and growth: Considerations for public policy. Review of Economics and Institutions, 4(3), 50.
  • Woo, W.T. (2012). China Meets the Middle-Income Trap: The Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4), 313-336.
  • Yamazawa N. (2013). The Middle-Income Trap Verified by Data – The Exit Key is Developing Institutions. Asia Research Report, Japan Center for Economic Research, 5.
  • Yeldan, E., Taşçı, K., Voyvoda, E., & Özsan, M. E. (2012). Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkış: Hangi Türkiye. TÜRKONFED, İstanbul.
  • Yılmaz, G. (2016). Essays On The Middle Income Trap With Specıal Emphasis On Turkey, Doktora Tezi, Ortadoğu Teknik Üniversitesi
  • Yıldız, A. (2015). Orta Gelir Tuzağı Ve Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkış Stratejileri. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 25, Sayı: 2, Sayfa: 155-170
  • Zhang, L., Yi, H., Luo, R., Liu, C. & Rozelle, S. (2013). The Human Capital Roots of the Middle Income Trap: The Case of China. Agricultural Economics0(0),1-12.
Toplam 59 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Müge Manga Bu kişi benim

Harun Bal Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Temmuz 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019 Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Manga, M., & Bal, H. (2019). Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkış Stratejisi Bağlamında İnovasyonun Etkisinin Ampirik Analizler ile Test Edilmesi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 20(2), 51-68.