CLIMATE VULNERABILITY IN AGRICULTURE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS FOR DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 2, 187 - 211, 22.07.2025

Ezgi Demiral , Ceran Zeynep Zafir Bahçekapılı

https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1580861

Öz

The agricultural sector is one of the most critical areas where the effects of climate change are directly felt due to its dependence on climatic factors. Impacts such as rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and drought caused by climate change significantly affect agricultural production. Whether considered in the context of food security or as an economic activity, it is essential to analyze the impact of the climate crisis on the agricultural sector at both national and global levels. Additionally, developed and developing countries differ in terms of their contributions to climate change and the resources they possess to combat its effects. In this study, the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector is analyzed for both developed and developing countries. Specifically, the effects of temperature, precipitation, agricultural water stress levels, CO2 emissions, and the area allocated to agriculture on the share of the agricultural sector in GDP are examined for the period between 2000 and 2021. The study employs the Westerlund and Edgerton (2007) LM Bootstrap Panel Cointegration Test, and the long-run coefficients are analyzed using the Panel AMG method. Agricultural water stress data, as measured by the FAO, is a key component in evaluating the pressure of agricultural irrigation activities on water resources. A key innovation of this research is the inclusion of agricultural water stress data, as measured by the FAO, which evaluates the pressure of agricultural irrigation activities on water resources. While water resource sustainability is critical for agriculture, agricultural water stress is often overlooked in similar studies, making its inclusion a significant contribution to the originality of this research. According to the findings, temperature, CO2 emissions, and agricultural water stress have a negative impact on the growth of the agricultural sector in both developed and developing countries, whereas increased rainfall and a larger area allocated to agriculture positively contribute to agricultural production. When considering the overall effects for both groups of countries, climate change has a predominantly negative impact on agricultural production.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Climate Change , Climate Crisis , Agricultural Water Stress , Developed and Developing Countries , Food Security.

TARIMDA İKLİM KIRILGANLIĞI: GELİŞMİŞ VE GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER İÇİN KARŞILAŞTIRMALI ANALİZ

Öz

İklim faktörlerine doğrudan bağlı olması sebebiyle tarım sektörü iklim değişikliği etkilerinin hissedildiği en önemli sektörlerden biridir. İklim değişikliğine bağlı olarak gözlenen sıcaklık artışı, yağış rejiminin değişmesi, kuraklık gibi sonuçlar tarımsal üretimi etkilemektedir. Gerek gıda güvencesi bağlamında gerekse ekonomik bir faaliyet olarak ele alınsın, iklim krizinin tarım sektörüne etkisinin hem ulusal hem de küresel ölçekte incelenmesi kritik öneme sahiptir. Diğer yandan hem gelişmiş ülkeler hem de gelişmekte olan ülkeler gerek iklim değişikliğinden etkilenmeleri bakımından gerekse iklim değişikliği ile mücadelede sahip oldukları imkanlar bakımından farklılaşmaktadır. Bu çalışmada da iklim değişikliğinin tarım sektörüne olan etkisi gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda sıcaklık, yağış, tarımsal su stresi seviyesi, CO2 emisyonu ve tarıma ayrılan alanın tarım sektörünün GSYH içerisindeki payına etkisi 2000-2021 dönemi için analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada Westerlund ve Edgerton (2007) LM Bootstrap Panel Eşbütünleşme Testi uygulanmış ve uzun dönem katsayıları Panel AMG yöntemi ile incelenmiştir. FAO tarafından ölçülen tarımsal su stresi verisi tarımsal sulama faaliyetlerinin su kaynakları üzerinde yarattığı baskının incelenmesi bakımından önem arz etmektedir. Su kaynaklarının sürdürülebilirliğinin kritik bir öneme sahip olduğu tarım sektöründe tarımsal su stresi seviyesi dikkate alınması gereken önemli bir faktördür. Bu bağlamda ilgili değişkenin analizde yer alması çalışmanın özgün kısmına önemli bir katkıda bulunmaktadır. Araştırma bulgularına göre hem gelişmiş ülkeler hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki tarım sektörünün büyümesini sıcaklık, CO2 emisyonu ve tarımsal su stresi olumsuz yönde etkilemekteyken, yağış miktarı ve tarım için ayrılan alan artışının tarımsal üretime katkısı ise olumlu olmaktadır. İki ülke grubu için toplam etkiye bakıldığında ise iklim değişikliği tarımsal üretimi olumsuz etkilemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İklim Değişikliği , İklim Krizi , Tarımsal Su Stresi , Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler , Gıda Güvencesi

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