FUTURE PROJECTION OF OLIVE PRODUCTION IN ÇANAKKALE

Öz

Global warming is one of the most important problems in the world due to its effects not only on human life but also on agricultural products and food safety, sustainability, and water resources. The present study aims to investigate the influence of climatic changes on olive cultivation in North-West Turkey for the next 50 years. In this context, the data were collected from 182 coordinates in olive cultivation areas in Çanakkale which is situated at the intersection of the Euro-Asian region. The data were analysed using MaxEnt software to determine the projection of olive cultivation for the next 50 years. The results show that the optimistic scenario is (representative concentration pathways) RCP 2.6 (2070) while the pessimistic scenario is RCP 8.5 (2070) for Çanakkale olive cultivation. When the results were compared with the current conditions of Çanakkale, the RCP 2.6 scenario indicated that potential olive cultivation areas would mostly be protected. On the other hand, according to the worst scenario, these areas would decrease in size. All of the scenarios, however, show that olive cultivation areas will spread towards the mountainous areas of Çanakkale. Additionally, total olive cultivation areas in Çanakkale will increase depending on climatic changes in 2070. In conclusion, even if climatic changes may lead to an increase olive production yield, their effects on olive and olive oil quality are unknown.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate Change
• Scenario Analysis
• Risk
• Adaptation
• Yield
• Olive Cultivation

ÇANAKKALE ZEYTİN ÜRETİMİNİN GELECEK PROJEKSİYONU

Öz

Küresel ısınma, sadece insan yaşamına olan etkileri nedeniyle değil, aynı zamanda tarımsal ürünlere ve gıda güvenliğine, sürdürülebilirliğine ve su kaynaklarına olan etkileri nedeniyle dünyadaki en önemli sorunlardan biridir. Bu çalışma ile önümüzdeki 50 yıl boyunca Kuzey-Batı Türkiye'de iklim değişikliklerinin zeytin yetiştiriciliği üzerindeki etkisinin araştırılması amaçlanmıştır.. Bu bağlamda, veriler Avrupa ve Asya kıtalarının kesiştiği Çanakkale'de bulunan ve hali hazırda zeytin yetiştiriciliği yapılan alanlarda 182 koordinattan toplanmıştır. Veriler, önümüzdeki 50 yıl boyunca zeytin yetiştiriciliğinin projeksiyonunu belirlemek için MaxENT yazılımı kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, en iyi senaryonun RCP 2.6 (2070) olduğunu, en kötü senaryonun ise Çanakkale zeytin yetiştiriciliği için RCP 8.5 (2070) olduğunu göstermiştir. Sonuçlar Çanakkale'nin mevcut koşullarıyla karşılaştırıldığında, RCP 2.6 senaryosuna göre potansiyel zeytin yetiştirme alanlarının daha çok korunacağı belirlenmiştir. Öte yandan, en kötü senaryoya göre ise, bu alanların büyüklüğünün azalacağı tespit edilmiştir. Ancak, tüm senaryolar zeytin yetiştirme alanlarının Çanakkale'nin dağlık alanlarına doğru yayılacağını göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak, Çanakkale'deki toplam zeytin yetiştirme alanları 2070'teki iklim değişikliklerine bağlı olarak artacaktır. Sonuç olarak, iklim değişiklikleri zeytin üretim veriminin artmasına neden olsa bile, zeytin ve zeytinyağı kalitesi üzerindeki etkileri bilinmemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim Değişikliği
• Senaryo Analizleri
• Risk
• Adaptasyon
• Zeytin Yetiştiriciliği
• Verim

Kaynakça

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