MALİ DİSİPLİNİN SAĞLANMASI MALİ KURALLARIN ETKİSİ: AB ÜLKELERİNE YÖNELİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Öz

Küresel ekonomik krizler ve artan kamu borç stoklarının etkisiyle mali kurallar, mali disiplinin sağlanmasında önemli bir politika aracı haline gelmiştir. Mali disiplin, belirli bir dönemde kamu gelirleri ile kamu harcamalarının dengelenmesini hedefleyen maliye politikalarının uygulanmasını ifade etmektedir. Bu çerçevede, maliye politikalarına getirilen belirli ya da kalıcı nitelikteki sayısal kısıtlamalar ise mali kurallar olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı, Avrupa Birliği (AB) ülkelerinde uygulanan mali kuralların mali disiplin üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Buradan hareketle 27 AB ülkesine ait 1998-2023 dönemini kapsayan veriler kullanılarak mali kuralların bütçe dengesi üzerindeki etkisi Panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. Ayrıca modele kontrol değişken olarak dahil edilen büyüme ve enflasyonun bütçe dengesi üzerindeki etkileri de değerlendirilmiştir. Ulaşılan sonuçlara göre, ekonomik büyümenin bütçe dengesi üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir. Buna karşılık, enflasyonun bütçe dengesi üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Mali kuralların ise bütçe dengesi üzerinde uzun dönemde anlamlı ve pozitif bir etki meydana getirmektedir. Bu doğrultuda, AB ülkelerinde uygulanan mali kuralların bütçe dengesini olumlu yönde etkileyerek mali disiplinin sağlanmasına katkı sağladığı söylenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Mali Disiplin
• Mali Kural
• AB Ülkeleri
• Panel ARDL Yöntemi

THE IMPACT OF FISCAL RULES ON ENSURING FISCAL DISCIPLINE: AN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON EU COUNTRIES

Öz

With the impact of global economic crises and rising public debt stocks, fiscal rules have become an important policy instrument in ensuring fiscal discipline. Fiscal discipline refers to the implementation of fiscal policies aimed at balancing public revenues and public expenditures over a given period. In this context, specific or permanent numerical constraints imposed on fiscal policies are defined as fiscal rules. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of fiscal rules on fiscal discipline in the European Union (EU) countries. For this purpose, data covering the period 1998–2023 for 27 EU countries are used, and the effect of fiscal rules on budget balance is examined through the Panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method. In addition, the effects of economic growth and inflation, which are included in the model as control variables, on the budget balance are also evaluated. According to the findings, economic growth has a statistically significant and positive effect on the budget balance. In contrast, inflation is found to have no statistically significant effect on the budget balance. Fiscal rules, on the other hand, are found to have a positive and significant effect on the budget balance in the long run. In this regard, it can be concluded that the implementation of fiscal rules in EU countries positively affects the budget balance and contributes to ensuring fiscal discipline.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fiscal Discipline
• Fiscal Rule
• EU Countries
• Panel ARDL Method

Kaynakça

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