TÜRK BANKACILIK SEKTÖRÜNDE FİNANSAL SAĞLAMLIĞIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: ARDL SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI (2005-2024)

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 16, 99 - 106, 30.12.2025

Serkan Varsak , Samet Şenol

https://doi.org/10.58627/dpuiibf.1786093

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türk bankacılık sektöründe finansal sağlamlığın temel belirleyicilerini ortaya koymaktır. Araştırmada 2005-2024 dönemi için çeyreklik veriler kullanılmıştır. Bağımlı değişken olarak finansal sağlamlık göstergesi (FSI) seçilmiş ve söz konusu veri Uluslararası Para Fonu’nun (IMF) veri tabanından elde edilmiştir. Bağımsız değişkenler ise Türkiye Bankalar Birliği’nin veri sisteminden sağlanan sermaye yeterliliği oranı (CAR), öz kaynaklar/toplam varlıklar (ETA), Türk lirası krediler/toplam krediler (LL), toplam krediler/toplam varlıklar (LTA), tüketici kredileri/toplam krediler (CL), ortalama aktif kârlılığı (ROA), ortalama öz kaynak kârlılığı (ROE) ve diğer faaliyet giderleri/toplam varlıklar (OPEX) değişkenleridir. Çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi sınamak amacıyla ARDL sınır testi yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, bankacılık sektörünün finansal sağlamlığının özellikle sermaye yeterliliği, kârlılık göstergeleri ve kredi kompoziCARnu ile yakından ilişkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Uzun dönemde pozitif ve anlamlı katsayıların varlığı, güçlü sermaye yapısı ve sürdürülebilir kârlılığın finansal sağlamlığı desteklediğini göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, politika yapıcılar için bankacılık sektöründe sağlamlığın artırılması adına sermaye yapısını güçlendiren ve eCLin risk yönetimini destekleyen politikaların önemine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal Sağlamlık , ARDL Sınır Testi , Türk Bankacılık Sektörü

Etik Beyan

Çalışmanın tüm süreçlerinin araştırma ve yayın etiğine uygun olduğunu, etik kurallara ve bilimsel atıf gösterme ilkelerine uyduğumu beyan ederim.

DETERMINANTS OF FINANCIAL SOUNDNESS IN THE TURKISH BANKING SECTOR: ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH (2005–2024)

Öz

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the key determinants of financial soundness in the Turkish banking sector. The analysis is based on quarterly data covering the period from 2005 to 2024. The dependent variable of the model is the Financial Soundness Indicator (FSI), which was obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database. The independent variables were collected from the data system of the Banks Association of Turkey (BAT) and include Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Equity to Total Assets (ETA), Turkish Lira Loans to Total Loans (TL), Total Loans to Total Assets (LTA), Consumer Loans to Total Loans (CL), Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Other Operating Expenses to Total Assets (OPEX). To examine the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables, the ARDL bounds testing approach was employed. The findings reveal that the financial soundness of the Turkish banking sector is closely linked to capital adequacy, profitability indicators, and loan composition. The presence of positive and statistically significant long-run coefficients indicates that a strong capital structure and sustainable profitability enhance financial soundness. These results underline the importance of policies aimed at strengthening the capital base and supporting effective risk management in order to promote financial resilience in the banking sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial Soundness , ARDL Bounds Test , Turkish Banking Sector

Etik Beyan

I declare that all processes of the study are in accordance with research and publication ethics, and that I comply with ethical rules and scientific citation principles.

Kaynakça

• Abusharbeh, M. (2020). The financial soundness of the Palestinian banking sector: An empirical analysis using the CAMEL system. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(2), 84–91.
• Albulescu, C. T. (2015). Banks’ profitability and financial soundness indicators: A macro-level investigation in emerging countries. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 203–209.
• Ashraf, A., & Tariq, Y. B. (2016). Evaluation of banks’ financial soundness: Bankometer application in listed banks in Pakistan. IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management, 13(3).
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057–1072.
• Gaganis, C., Pasiouras, F., & Zopounidis, C. (2006). A multicriteria decision framework for measuring banks’ soundness around the world. Journal of Multicriteria Decision Analysis, 14(1–3), 103–111.
• Gasbarro, D., Sadguna, I. G. M., & Zumwalt, J. K. (2002). The changing relationship between CAMEL ratings and bank soundness during the Indonesian banking crisis. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 19, 247–260.
• Ginevičius, R., & Podviezko, A. (2013). Evaluation of financial stability and soundness of Lithuanian banks. Economic Research–Ekonomska Istraživanja, 26(2), 191–208.
• Kumar, M. A., Harsha, G. S., Anand, S., & Dhruva, N. R. (2012). An analysis of soundness in Indian banking: A CAMEL approach. Journal of Management Research, 1, 2319–1171.
• Lindgren, C. J., Garcia, G., & Saal, M. I. (1996). Bank soundness and macroeconomic policy. International Monetary Fund.
• Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2006). What determines migration flows from low-income to high-income countries? An empirical investigation of Fiji–US migration 1972–2001. Contemporary Economic Policy, 24(2), 332–342.
• Naser, N. (2019). Profitability and macroeconomic factors for future investigations of European banks’ soundness: A theoretical study.
• Noorie, S. (2022). Analysis of financial soundness of financial institutions: The case of the Fragile Five countries (Master’s thesis). Anadolu University, Institute of Social Sciences, Eskişehir, Türkiye.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
• Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. Qamruzzaman, M. (2014). Analysis of performance and financial soundness of financial institutions (banks): A comparative study. Journal of Finance and Accounting Research, 5(7), 169–186.
• Roman, A., & Șargu, A. C. (2013). Analysing the financial soundness of commercial banks in Romania: An approach based on the CAMELS framework. Procedia Economics and Finance, 6, 703–712.
• Salina, A. P., Zhang, X., & Hassan, O. A. (2021). Evaluation of financial soundness of Kazakh banks. Asian Journal of Accounting Research, 6(1), 23–37.
• Şit, A. (2022). The effect of the financial soundness index on banks’ financial performance: Evidence from Türkiye. Journal of Economic Administrative and Political Research, 7(17), 129–140.
• Tangen, S. (2004). Performance measurement: From philosophy to practice. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, 53(8), 726–737.
• Zsigraiová, M. (2012). Impact of the global crisis on banking sector soundness: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.