EKONOMİK KOMPLEKSİTENİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ İÇİN PANEL KOENTEGRASYON ANALİZİ

Öz

Son yıllarda Hausmann ve Hidalgo (2009) tarafından geliştirilen ve istikrarlı bir ekonomik büyümenin yaratılması anlamında kulanılan ekonomik kompleksite, ülkelerin hem gelir hem de büyüme farklılıklarını açıklamada yardımcı olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada 36 OECD ülkesinde 1995-2019 yılları arasında ekonomik kompleksitenin, ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmada ekonomik kompleksite ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi panel eşbütünleşme testi ile analiz edilmektedir. Bu kapsamda ilk önce yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve homojenite testi yapılmaktadır. Çıkan sonuçlara göre birim kök testi ve ardından panel eşbütünleşme testi uygulanıp, veriler arası eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olup olmadığına bakılmaktadır. Son olarak ise uzun dönemli katsayı testi uygulanmaktadır. CCE Ortalama Grup tahmincisi modeli sonucunda elde edilen bulgular Ekonomik kompleksitenin (ECI) ekonomik büyüme (GDPPCG) üzerindeki etkisinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğu ve ECI değişkeninde meydana gelecek bir birimlik artışın GDPPCG değişkenini 3.014 birim artırdığı belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Karmaşıklık
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Panel Eşbütünleşme

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS FOR OECD COUNTRIES

Öz

In recent years, the concept of economic complexity, developed by Hausmann and Hidalgo (2009), has emerged as a significant analytical framework for explaining the determinants of sustained economic growth. Economic complexity helps elucidate the disparities in both income levels and growth performance across countries by capturing the diversity and knowledge intensity embedded in their production structures. This study investigates the impact of economic complexity on economic growth for 36 OECD countries over the period 1995–2019. The relationship between economic complexity and economic growth is examined using panel cointegration analysis. Within this framework, cross-sectional dependence and homogeneity tests are first conducted. Based on these results, appropriate panel unit root tests and subsequently panel cointegration tests are applied to determine whether a long-run equilibrium relationship exists among the variables. Finally, long-run coefficient estimates are obtained. The findings derived from the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCE-MG) estimator reveal that economic complexity (ECI) exerts a statistically significant and positive effect on economic growth (GDPPCG). Specifically, a one-unit increase in the ECI variable leads to an estimated 3.014-unit increase in GDPPCG.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Keywords: Economic Complexity
• Economic Growth
• Panel Cointegration
• OECD Countries.

Kaynakça

1. Abdon, A., & Felipe, J. (2011). The product space: What does it say about the opportunities for growth and structural transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa? Levy Economics Institute Working Paper, 670, 1–34.
2. Akyol, H., & Gül, K. (2021). Sustainable development, economic complexity and international tourism: A panel data analysis. Erciyes Akademi, 35(4), 1721–1740.
3. Aydemir, C., & Kaya, M. (2007). The concept of globalization and its economic dimension. Electronic Journal of Social Sciences, 6(20), 260–282.
4. Balassa, B. (1965). Trade liberalisation and revealed comparative advantage. The Manchester School, 33(2), 99–123.
5. Bastos, F., & Wang, K. (2015). Long-run growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: The role of economic diversification and complexity. In Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere (pp. 67–77). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498312127.086
6. Bayar, İ. (2022). Economic complexity index and economic growth: Empirical evidence from CIVETS countries. Journal of International Economic and Administrative Studies, 36, 237–251.
7. Boğa, S. (2019). The impact of economic complexity level on economic growth: A panel time series analysis for transition countries. Akademik Hassasiyetler, 6(12), 357–386.
8. Britto, G., Romero, J., Freitas, E., & Coelho, C. (2016). The great divide: Economic complexity and development paths in Brazil and South Korea. CEPAL Review, 127, 191–213.

9. Chávez, J., Mosqueda, M., & Gómez-Zaldívar, M. (2017). Economic complexity and regional growth performance: Evidence from the Mexican economy. The Review of Regional Studies, 47, 201–219.
10. Çeştepe, H., & Çağlar, O. (2017). The relationship between product sophistication and economic growth: A panel data analysis. International Journal of Management Economics and Business, 13(5), 992–1000.
11. Çınar, İ. T., Korkmaz, İ., & Baycan, T. (2022). Regions’ economic fitness and sectoral labor productivity: Evidence from Turkey. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 14(3), 575–599.
12. Çoban, M. (2020). Economic complexity and human development relationship: Evidence from E7 countries. Ahi Evran University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 6(2), 467–479.
13. Demiral, M. (2016). Knowledge, complexity and economic growth. Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, 6(1), 1–27.
14. Ertan Özgüzer, G., & Oğuş Binatlı, A. (2016). Economic convergence in the EU: A complexity approach. Eastern European Economics, 54(2), 93–108.
15. Felix, A. (2012). Industrial diversity, growth, and volatility in the seven states of the tenth district. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 4th Quarter, 55–77.
16. Felipe, J., Kumar, U., & Abdon, A. (2014). How rich countries became rich and why poor countries remain poor. Japan and the World Economy, 29, 46–59.
17. Ferrarini, B., & Scaramozzino, P. (2013). Complexity, specialization, and growth. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper, 344, 1–25.
18. Fortunato, P., & Razo, C. (2014). Export sophistication, growth and the middle-income trap. In J. Salazar-Xirinachs, I. Nübler, & R. Kozul-Wright (Eds.), Transforming economies: Making industrial policy work for growth, jobs and development (pp. 267–287). ILO.
19. Fortunato, P., Razo, C., & Vrolijk, K. (2015). Operationalizing the product space: A road map to export diversification. UNCTAD Discussion Paper, 219, 1–27.
20. Gala, P., Rocha, I., & Magacho, G. (2018). The structuralist revenge: Economic complexity as an important dimension to evaluate growth and development. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 38(2), 219–236.
21. Güneri, B. (2019). Economic complexity and economic performance (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Hacettepe University, Ankara.
22. Hao, W., Rasul, F., Bhatti, Z., Hassan, M., Ahmed, I., & Asghar, N. (2021). Technological innovation and economic progress: An assessment of sustainable economic and environmental management. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 28585–28597.
23. Hausmann, R., Cunningham, B., Matovu, J. M., Osire, R., & Wyett, K. (2014). How should Uganda grow? Harvard Kennedy School Faculty Research Working Paper Series, No. 235.
24. Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Chung, S., Jimenez, J., Simoes, A., & Yıldırım, M. A. (2011). The atlas of economic complexity: Mapping paths to prosperity. Center for International Development, Harvard University & MIT Media Lab.
25. Hausmann, R., Hwang, J., & Rodrik, D. (2005). What you export matters. NBER Working Paper, 11905.
26. Hausmann, R., & Klinger, B. (2006). Structural transformation and patterns of comparative advantage in the product space. CID Working Paper, 128.
27. Hausmann, R., Morales, J., & Santos, M. (2016). Economic complexity in Panama: Assessing opportunities for productive diversification. Faculty Research Working Paper Series, 1–123.
28. Herzer, D., & Nowak-Lehnmann, F. (2006). What does export diversification do for growth? Applied Economics, 38(15), 1825–1838.
29. Hesse, H. (2008). Export diversification and economic growth. IMF Working Paper, 21.
30. Hidalgo, C. A., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570–10575.
31. Hvidt, M. (2013). Economic diversification in GCC countries: Past record and future trends. Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation, London School of Economics.
32. İmre, S. (2022). The impact of economic freedom on human development in fragile five countries: Panel cointegration analysis. SSAD, 6(2), 371–380.
33. Jankowska, A., Nagengast, A., & Perea, J. (2012). The product space and the middle-income trap. OECD Development Centre Working Paper, 311.
34. Jarreau, J., & Poncet, S. (2012). Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Development Economics, 97, 281–292.
35. Kılıç, C., & Balan, F. (2019). Economic complexity and economic growth: Panel ARDL analysis for selected OECD countries. In V. International Conference on Applied Economics and Finance (pp. 96–105), Kyrenia, Cyprus.
36. Koçbulut, Ö., & Altıntaş, A. (2016). Twin deficits and the Feldstein–Horioka hypothesis: Panel cointegration analysis with structural breaks. Erciyes University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 48, 145–174.
37. Korkmaz, İ., Çınar, İ. T., & Baycan, T. (2025). Economic complexity and regional growth in Turkey. Eastern European Economics, 63(4), 610–636.
38. Lall, S., Weiss, J., & Zhang, J. (2006). The “sophistication” of exports. World Development, 34(2), 222–237. Menyah, K., Nazlıoğlu, Ş., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014). Financial development, trade openness and economic growth. Economic Modelling, 37, 386–394.
39. Öcal, K. (2021). The impact of entrepreneurship and export volume on economic complexity: Evidence from Turkey (Unpublished master’s thesis). Başkent University, Ankara.
40. Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels. Econometrica, 74(4), 967–1002.
41. Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50–93.
42. Poncet, S., & Starosta de Waldemar, F. (2013). Export upgrading and growth. World Development, 51, 104–118.
43. Rosenstein-Rodan, P. (1943). Problems of industrialisation of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. The Economic Journal, 53(210–211), 202–211.
44. Soyyiğit, S. (2018). Economic complexity and GDP per capita: Panel cointegration analysis for OECD founding countries. Journal of Selçuk University Social Sciences Vocational School, 21(2), 374–392.
45. Soyyiğit, S. (2019). Sectoral value added and structural transformation. C.Ü. Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 20(1), 377–393.
46. Soyyiğit, S., Topuz, H., & Özekicioğlu, H. (2019). Economic complexity, exports and fixed capital investment. Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 6(2), 394–407.
47. Stojkoski, V., & Kocarev, L. (2017). The relationship between growth and economic complexity. MPRA Paper, 77837.
48. Tatoğlu, F. (2020). Panel time series analysis: Stata applications. Beta.
49. Uçar, M., Soyyiğit, S., & Nişancı, M. (2019). Economic development and complexity relationship. Cumhuriyet University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 20(1), 138–148.
50. Udeogu, E., Roy-Mukherjee, S., & Amakom, U. (2021). Product complexity and economic growth. SAGE Open, 11(3), 1–16.
51. Yaman, H., & Sungur, O. (2020). High-technology exports and growth. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 20(1), 63–80.
52. Yıldırım, M. (2018). Turkey through complexity and product space methodology. Koç University–TÜSİAD ERF Working Paper, 1806.
53. Yıldız, B., & Akbulut Yıldız, G. (2019). Economic complexity and economic growth. International Journal of Management Economics and Business, 15(2), 329–340. Zhu, S., & Li, R. (2017). Economic complexity, human capital and eco