What is Credit Cycle? An Application for Turkey

Öz

The global economic crisis that the world faced in 2008 showed that serious financial crises are not limited to less developed countries. When the rapid growth in credits is not controlled, it can lead to a economic collapse and banking crises even in the most developed countries. In this respect, it is important to identify periods of credit expansion and contraction and to keep the financial market under control against overheating and cooling. Our study aims to introduce credit cycles and identify quarterly credit cycles and their turning points in Turkey. We use Bry Boschan algorithm for identify turning points. According to the analysis which made by the credit/Gross domestic product variable, 6 expansion and contraction periods identified between 1998:1-2023:3 in Turkey. According to our analysis results, consistent with the literature, financial crises in the period under review coincide with the peaks of credit cycles and the subsequent contraction periods. However, contrary to the literature, business cycles in Turkey last longer than credit cycles in some periods. Moreover, while the structural reforms implemented by the monetary authority between 2001 and 2004 were effective in keeping credit cycles in the expansion phase for a long time, market interventions such as interest rate cuts and credit guaranteed loans had an impact only in the very short term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Credit cycles
• Business cycles
• BBQ algorithm

Kredi Döngüleri Nedir? Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama

Öz

Dünyanın 2008 yılında karşılaştığı küresel ekonomik kriz ciddi finansal krizlerin sadece az gelişmiş ülkelerle sınırlı olmadığını göstermiştir. Kredilerdeki hızlı büyüme kontrol edilmediğinde en gelişmiş ülkelerin ekonomilerinde dahi bir çöküşe ve bankacılık krizlerine yol açabilmektedir. Bu açıdan kredilerdeki genişleme ve daralma dönemlerinin tespit edilerek finans piyasasının aşırı ısınma ve soğumaya karşı kontrol altında tutulması önemlidir. Çalışmamız kredi döngülerini tanıtarak Türkiye’de üçer aylık dönemlerde kredi döngülerinin ve bunlara ilişkin dönüm noktalarının belirlenmesini amaçlamıştır. Dönüm noktalarının tespiti için Bry Boschan algoritmasını kullanıyoruz. Kredi/Gayri safi yurt içi hasıla değişkeni ile yapılan analize göre Türkiye’de 1998:1–2023:3 dönemleri arasında 6 genişleme ve daralma dönemi tespit edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarımıza göre; literatür ile uyumlu olarak, inceleme döneminde yaşanan finansal krizler, kredi döngülerinin zirve noktaları ve sonrasındaki daralma dönemleri ile eşanlıdır. Ancak literatürün aksine Türkiye’de iş çevrimleri, kredi döngülerinden bazı dönemlerde daha uzun sürmektedir. Ayrıca parasal otoritenin 2001-2004 arası gerçekleştirdiği yapısal reformlar, kredi döngülerinin uzun süre genişleme aşamasında kalmasında etkili olurken, faiz indirimi ve kredi garanti fonu kefaletli krediler gibi piyasa müdahaleleri sadece çok kısa dönemde etki yaratabilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kredi döngüleri
• İş çevrimleri
• BBQ algoritması

Kaynakça

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