E-7 Ekonomilerinde Takipteki Kredilerin Belirleyicilerini Keşfetmek: Makroekonomik, Bankacılık Sektörü ve Kurumsal Boyutlar

Öz

Takipteki krediler (NPLs 'ler), gelişmekte olan piyasa ekonomilerinde, yalnızca finansal istikrarı sağlamak için değil, aynı zamanda sürdürülebilir kalkınmayı teşvik etmek için de kritik bir faktör olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, E-7 ülkelerinde NPLs'lerin potansiyel belirleyicilerini, makroekonomik, bankacılık sektörü ve kurumsal olmak üzere üç temel boyutta analiz ederek, araştırmaktır. Veri seti 2000-2020 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan yöntem dinamik heterojen panel veri teknikleridir. Panel havuzlanmış ortalama grup (PMG) tahmincisinden elde edilen uzun vadeli sonuçlara göre, enflasyon, reel faiz oranı, reel efektif döviz kuru ve kamu borcunun NPLs 'ler üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir etkisi vardır. Buna karşın ekonomik büyüme, varlık getirisi, kredi büyümesi, banka verimsizliği ve kurumsal kalite NPLs ile negatif ilişkilidir. Ayrıca, uzun vadeli katsayı bulguları, kurumsal kalite, banka karlılığı, enflasyonist baskı ve işletme verimliliğinin E-7 ülkelerinde NPLs'lerin önde gelen belirleyicileri olarak ortaya çıktığını göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak bulgular, bu ekonomilerdeki politika yapıcıların ve düzenleyici otoritelerin, bankacılık sektörünün dayanıklılığını artırmak için söz konusu faktörleri finansal istikrar çerçevelerine dahil etmelerinin önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Takipteki Krediler
• E-7 Ülkeleri
• Havuzlanmış ortalama grup tahmincisi

Exploring the Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in E-7 Economies: Macroeconomic, Banking Sector and Institutional Dimensions

Öz

In emerging market economies, non-performing loans (NPLs) are recognized as a crucial element not only for maintaining financial stability but also for advancing sustainable economic development. This study aims to explore the potential drivers of NPLs in E-7 countries by examining them through three key lenses: macroeconomic conditions, banking sector characteristics, and institutional factors. The analysis is based on data spanning the years 2000 to 2020 and utilizes dynamic heterogeneous panel data methodologies. Based on the long-run estimates derived from the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, variables such as inflation, real interest rates, the real effective exchange rate, and public debt exhibit a statistically significant and positive influence on NPLs. Conversely, indicators like economic growth, return on assets, credit expansion, banking inefficiency, and institutional quality show a negative correlation with NPLs. The long-term coefficients further highlight institutional quality, bank profitability, inflationary trends, and operational efficiency as prominent determinants of NPLs levels in E-7 economies. These results underscore the necessity for policymakers and regulatory bodies in these countries to integrate these factors into their financial stability strategies to bolster the robustness of the banking sector.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Non-Performing Loans
• E-7 Countries
• Pooled mean group estimator

Kaynakça

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