Türkiye-Azerbaycan Enerji Güvenliği İlişkilerinde Ermenistan Faktörünün Konstrüktivist Açıdan Analizi: Riskten Fırsata

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye-Azerbaycan enerji güvenliği bağlamında olası riskler ve fırsatlar çerçevesinde Ermenistan faktörünün etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Türkiye'nin Ermenistan ile doğrudan enerji ilişkisi olmamasına rağmen İkinci Karabağ Çatışmasında görüldüğü üzere Ermenistan'ın enerji boru hatları üzerindeki bölgeleri hedef alan saldırıları, Türkiye-Azerbaycan enerji güvenliği için potansiyel bir risk teşkil etmektedir. Ayrıca stratejik öneme sahip enerji transit güzergahı Gürcistan üzerinden kaynaklanabilecek potansiyel riskler Türkiye ve Azerbaycan enerji güvenliğini daha da savunmasız hâle getirmektedir. Küresel ve bölgesel aktörlerin Güney Kafkasya’daki jeopolitik çıkarları doğrultusunda Ermenistan’a yönelik destekleyici tutumu da bu riskleri artırmaktadır. Çalışma şu temel soruyu yanıtlamayı hedeflemektedir: Ermenistan faktörünün Türkiye-Azerbaycan enerji güvenliği açısından potansiyel risklerin ve fırsatların ortaya çıkmasındaki etkisi nedir ve bu etki, konstrüktivist bakış açısıyla değerlendirildiğinde bölgesel enerji güvenliği söylem ve pratiklerini nasıl dönüştürmektedir? Bu kapsamda çalışmada nitel araştırma yöntemleri (literatür taraması, vaka çalışması ve teorik analiz) kullanılmıştır. Analiz, Ermenistan kaynaklı enerji güvenliği risklerinin gelecekte ortaya çıkabileceğini ve risklerin yalnızca tehditlere değil, aynı zamanda fırsatlara da dönüştürülebileceğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enerji güvenliği
• Azerbaycan
• Türkiye
• Ermenistan
• Konstrüktivizm

A Constructivist Analysis of the Armenian Factor in the Türkiye-Azerbaijan Energy Security Relations: From Risk to Opportunity

Öz

This study aims to examine the impact of the Armenia factor within the framework of potential risks and opportunities in the context of Türkiye-Azerbaijan energy security. Although Türkiye has no direct energy relationship with Armenia, attacks by Armenia targeting areas along energy pipeline routes, as observed during the Second Karabakh War, constitute a potential risk to Türkiye-Azerbaijan energy security. Furthermore, potential risks originating from Georgia, a strategically important energy transit route, make the energy security of Türkiye and Azerbaijan even more vulnerable. The supportive stance of global and regional actors toward Armenia, in line with their geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus, also increases these risks. The study seeks to answer the following fundamental question: What is the impact of the Armenia factor on the emergence of potential risks and opportunities in Türkiye-Azerbaijan energy security, and how does this impact, when evaluated from a constructivist perspective, transform regional energy security discourses and practices? In this context, qualitative research methods, including a literature review, case study, and theoretical analysis, were employed. The analysis reveals that energy security risks originating from Armenia may emerge in the future and that these risks can be transformed not only into threats but also into opportunities.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Energy security
• Azerbaijan
• Türkiye
• Armenia
• Constructivism

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